5002 Wake Forest Hwy · Durham, NC 27703

$98,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,136 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 181 Days on market

Built 1940 0.43 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Property currently under 13 th10 day upset bid period, Current price is $197,993 . new bid is $207,893 last day to upset bid is April 16, 2026. Commissioner's sale, public upset bid period, sold '' as is & where is'' & subject to attached Judicial Addendum Property has not been occupied for several years. Enter dwelling at your OWEN risk, side door unlocked. Property is not in the city limits & NOT connected to public water or sewer. Per City engineering public water & sewer is in street, please confirm for your records. File # 25-SP-000193

Key facts

• 0.43 acre lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 181 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.43 acres (dimensions: 100 x 176 x 120 x 176); Zoned residential; Road is publicly maintained and paved; Frontage: see remarks; Living area reported as 3,136
• Financial info: Annual tax amount listed
• HOA & community: No association; No community features listed; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking listed
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Well water; Septic sewer
• Home design: House, single-story; Property faces north
• Construction: Construction materials: unknown; No roof information listed; No foundation details listed; No other structures on the property
• Exterior features: No exterior features listed; No patio or porch listed; No fencing listed; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms total; 1 bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: No flooring information listed
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heating: see remarks; No central cooling
• Interior features: See remarks for additional interior details
• Laundry & utility: No laundry features listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $98k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $98k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.2% vs local median 3.0% in Durham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#15 in NC, #1,411 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Durham Public Schools (urban): math 29% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #132 of 178 in NC (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Holt Elementary (math 10% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,280 of 1,410 statewide, top 91%, 636 students, 83% FRL); Neal Middle (math 6% / reading 19%, grade F, #468 of 475 statewide, top 99%, 789 students, 100% FRL); Southern School of Energy And Sustainabi (math 28% / reading 30%, grade F, #465 of 535 statewide, top 87%, 1,283 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 58% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 34% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Durham Public Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1103 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,905 units permitted in Durham County in 2024 (955 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $681 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Durham County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $98k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,680 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 60.44%
• DSCR: 3.69
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $498,624
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
312 Stallings Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0	3,265 (+4%)	1mo	$700,000	$214	76
1 Thorn Brook Ct	0.56mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,166 (+1%)	5mo	$423,000	$134	57
2 Red Sage Ct	0.58mi	4/3.0 (+1)	3,092 (-1%)	6mo	$435,000	$141	57
617 Hiddenbrook Dr	0.56mi	4/2.5 (+1)	3,036 (-3%)	6mo	$484,000	$159	56
204 Hillview Dr	0.51mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,968 (-5%)	6mo	$430,500	$145	56
621 Wellwater Ave	0.73mi	4/2.5 (+1)	3,009 (-4%)	3mo	$480,000	$160	50
714 Weathervane Dr	0.65mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,932 (-6%)	4mo	$460,000	$157	48
634 Conover Rd	0.72mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,906 (-7%)	2mo	$446,000	$153	46
124 Green Gables Way	0.62mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,889 (-8%)	7mo	$515,000	$178	45
629 Conover Rd	0.69mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,886 (-8%)	5mo	$627,700	$217	39
633 Conover Rd	0.72mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,886 (-8%)	4mo	$625,000	$217	39
631 Ashburn Ln	0.70mi	4/2.5 (+1)	3,563 (+14%)	2mo	$495,000	$139	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.84% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.43×
• Total profit: $67,128
• Equity at exit: $14,687

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.48×
• Total profit: $151,201
• Equity at exit: $8,516

Cash invested: $27,580 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27703

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 1103
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,532 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$517
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $640/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$532
• Net cashflow: $1,389

Break-even live

Break-even rent $773

Max offer price $98,500

Occupancy floor 40%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,445	-5% $1,417	+0% $1,389	+5% $1,361	+10% $1,333
Rent	-10% $1,189	-5% $1,289	+0% $1,389	+5% $1,489	+10% $1,589
Rate	-1.0pp $1,439	-0.5pp $1,414	base $1,389	+0.5pp $1,364	+1.0pp $1,338

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,625
• Closing costs: $2,955
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
634 Conover Rd Durham, NC	4.0	2.5	2906	$2,680	$0.92	15d	1	0.72mi
3 Mooring Ct Durham, NC	4.0	2.5	3144	$2,495	$0.79	25d	1	0.81mi
616 Poplar St Durham, NC	4.0	3.0	2720	$2,395	$0.88	15d	1	0.95mi
1011 Poplar St Durham, NC	4.0	3.0	2718	$3,000	$1.10	25d	1	1.33mi
1015 Night Star Trl Durham, NC	3.0	2.5	2390	$2,624	$1.10	4d	14	1.37mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-19
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2025-11-18
   listed $98,500 Active
4. 1993-10-13
   soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $640 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $808 · $67/mo
• Expected delta: +$167/yr (+$14/mo · 26.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,382
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,518
• − Property taxes: −$640
• − Insurance: −$492
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,431
• − Management: −$2,431
• − Depreciation: −$2,865
• Taxable income: $16,005
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,841
• After-tax cash flow: $12,829/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Durham Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3701260
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $52,143
• Composite: 29.69/100
• National rank: #6457
• State rank: #132 of 178 in NC

Livability — Durham

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #1411

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Durham County · 288,747 people
• City population: 288,747
• Metro: Durham-Chapel Hill, NC
• Population (ZIP): 63,458
• Household income: $89,317
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1685.0

Population outlook (Durham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 368,962 people
• By 2030: 402,686 · +9.1%
• By 2040: 468,677 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 531,727 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 660,446 · +79.0%
• By 2100: 739,971 · +100.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 40% White 32% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 9% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Swiss 2% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Durham

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+61.9) · D 80.2% · R 18.2% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.0pp toward D · 2008: 51.9pp · 2024: 61.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+61.9 2020: D+62.4 2016: D+60.4 2012: D+52.7 2008: D+51.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -129.81%
• Current HPI: 206.7413
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.84%
• Metro: Durham-Chapel Hill, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+51.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — TMLS
• 2026-04-19 Contingent — TMLS
• 2025-11-18 Listed $98,500 TMLS
• 1993-10-13 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $640 · +30.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.