421 La Joya Pass · Leander, TX 78641

$375,000

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,811 sqft · SingleFamily · 62 Days on market

Built 2021 7,601 sqft lot $133/sqft · 25% below area Est $497k · 25% under $60/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This spacious 5-bedroom, 2.5-bath home sits on a corner lot and offers a flexible layout designed for both everyday living and effortless entertaining. The open kitchen flows seamlessly into the main living area, creating a natural gathering space at the heart of the home. Three additional living areas—a main living room, a versatile flex space, and an upstairs game room—provide endless options for work, play, or relaxation. The primary suite is conveniently located on the main floor and features tray ceilings and a private en-suite bath. Upstairs, four secondary bedrooms share a full bathroom, giving everyone plenty of room and privacy. Outside, the extended covered patio and playscape make the backyard perfect for outdoor dining, playtime, and weekend enjoyment. With high ceilings, a thoughtful floor plan, and a prime location near Larkspur Elementary and local amenities, this Leander home offers space, comfort, and convenience for its next owner. Seller is willing to assist with closing costs or a rate buy-down through a preferred lender with an acceptable offer.

Key facts

• Main living area
• Flex space
• Upstairs game room

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• OPEN KITCHEN
• MAIN LIVING AREA
• FLEX SPACE
• UPSTAIRS GAME ROOM
• EXTENDED COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-605 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $287k (23.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (30.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $259k (30.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 2.2% in Leander — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#10 in TX, #940 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Leander ISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #100 of 826 in TX (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Bill Burden El (math 36% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,490 of 4,322 statewide, top 35%, 808 students, 19% FRL); Liberty Hill Middle (math 44% / reading 50%, grade D+, #424 of 1,662 statewide, top 27%, 944 students, 26% FRL); Liberty Hill H S (math 39% / reading 69%, grade C-, #422 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,001 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 23% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1501 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $259,069 (30.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.91%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $496,861
• List price: $375,000
• Delta: -24.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
225 Manassas Dr	0.27mi	5/3.0	2,809 (-0%)	1mo	$479,900	$171	84
400 Somerville St	0.33mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,920 (+4%)	0mo	$399,900	$137	69
1808 Side Buster Trl	0.58mi	5/3.0	2,783 (-1%)	2mo	$432,990	$156	68
1825 Side Buster Trl	0.62mi	5/3.0	2,783 (-1%)	1mo	$435,590	$157	66
436 Staunton Dr	0.66mi	5/3.0	2,794 (-1%)	1mo	$470,000	$168	65
105 Cloyce Ct	0.44mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,987 (+6%)	2mo	$499,000	$167	58
205 Audie Murphy Cir	0.39mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,503 (-11%)	2mo	$399,900	$160	53
183 Concho Creek Loop	0.46mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,082 (+10%)	2mo	$489,000	$159	52
1812 Side Buster Trl	0.59mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,530 (-10%)	2mo	$426,990	$169	47
1829 Side Buster Trl	0.63mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,536 (-10%)	1mo	$420,938	$166	47
116 Empress Tree Dr	0.69mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,502 (-11%)	2mo	$390,000	$156	41
129 Empress Tree Dr	0.69mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,455 (-13%)	3mo	$379,999	$155	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-106,808
• Equity at exit: $55,914

10-year hold

• IRR: -57.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.63×
• Total profit: $-171,647
• Equity at exit: $32,423

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78641

• Home prices YoY: -33.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1501
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,591 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$469 /mo · $5,625/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$60
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$544
• Net cashflow: $-605

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,356

Max offer price $287,472

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-346	-5% $-475	+0% $-605	+5% $-734	+10% $-864
Rent	-10% $-810	-5% $-707	+0% $-605	+5% $-503	+10% $-400
Rate	-1.0pp $-416	-0.5pp $-510	base $-605	+0.5pp $-702	+1.0pp $-801

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
404 La Joya Pass Leander, TX	4.0	2.5	2075	$2,350	$1.13	6d	1	0.06mi
325 La Joya Pass Leander, TX	5.0	3.0	2820	$2,495	$0.88	6d	1	0.07mi
268 Hauser Dr Leander, TX	4.0	2.5	2250	$2,190	$0.97	17d	1	0.26mi
140 Earl Keen St Leander, TX	4.0	2.5	2046	$2,250	$1.10	6d	1	0.33mi
405 Arrowhead Vine St Leander, TX	4.0	3.5	3029	$2,849	$0.94	45d	1	0.46mi
532 Arrowhead Vine St Leander, TX	5.0	3.5	2975	$2,775	$0.93	25d	1	0.46mi
320 Rend Dr Leander, TX	4.0	2.5	2057	$2,200	$1.07	6d	1	0.51mi
300 Staunton Dr Leander, TX	4.0	3.5	2700	$2,699	$1.00	45d	1	0.57mi
429 Staunton Dr Leander, TX	4.0	2.5	2013	$2,200	$1.09	45d	1	0.62mi
1840 Side Buster Trl Georgetown, TX	4.0	2.0	2098	$2,250	$1.07	25d	1	0.63mi
100 Orange Mimosa Ln Leander, TX	4.0	3.0	2735	$2,750	$1.01	19d	1	0.79mi
324 Sandhill Piper St Leander, TX	4.0	2.5	2162	$2,250	$1.04	45d	1	0.81mi
2145 Stampede Dr Leander, TX	4.0	3.5	2716	$2,700	$0.99	16d	1	0.97mi
2100 Gold Dust Trl Leander, TX	4.0	3.5	2863	$2,950	$1.03	19d	1	0.97mi
2129 Yellow Warbler Dr Leander, TX	4.0	2.5	2129	$2,850	$1.34	19d	1	1.03mi
258 Majestic Cedar Dr Liberty Hill, TX	5.0	3.5	2442	$2,500	$1.02	25d	1	1.05mi
512 Hoot Owl Ln S Leander, TX	5.0	3.0	2706	$2,650	$0.98	45d	1	1.11mi
169 Marcheeta Way Leander, TX	4.0	3.0	2114	$2,350	$1.11	19d	1	1.11mi
232 Wild Sage Ln Liberty Hill, TX	4.0	2.5	2100	$2,500	$1.19	17d	1	1.12mi
128 Skyview Ter Leander, TX	4.0	3.0	2501	$2,500	$1.00	19d	1	1.14mi
2228 Bravo Pass Leander, TX	4.0	2.5	2284	$2,396	$1.05	25d	1	1.21mi
1200 Willie Ranch Way Leander, TX	5.0	3.0	2758	$2,850	$1.03	45d	1	1.22mi
108 Blue Hibiscus Dr Liberty Hill, TX	4.0	2.5	2252	$2,350	$1.04	45d	1	1.22mi
2320 Base Burner Path Leander, TX	4.0	3.0	1969	$2,350	$1.19	6d	1	1.22mi
2248 Delano Dr Leander, TX	4.0	2.5	1965	$2,599	$1.32	45d	1	1.23mi
2240 Delano Dr Leander, TX	4.0	2.5	1965	$2,599	$1.32	45d	1	1.24mi
2632 Indian Clover Trl Andice, TX	4.0	2.0	2098	$2,350	$1.12	12d	1	1.24mi
2228 Delano Dr Leander, TX	4.0	2.5	1965	$2,599	$1.32	45d	1	1.25mi
2208 Delano Dr Leander, TX	4.0	2.5	1965	$2,599	$1.32	45d	1	1.26mi
151 Rose Heath Ln Liberty Hill, TX	4.0	3.0	3000	$2,890	$0.96	19d	1	1.29mi
2332 Bravo Pass Leander, TX	4.0	3.0	2390	$2,400	$1.00	45d	1	1.30mi
2121 Fairway Rd Leander, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1678	$2,699	$1.61	0d	56	1.33mi
1905 Armitas Ter Leander, TX	4.0	2.0	2105	$2,300	$1.09	19d	1	1.34mi
177 Fluttermill Loop Andice, TX	4.0	2.5	2015	$2,250	$1.12	45d	1	1.38mi
205 Lark St Leander, TX	4.0	2.0	2025	$2,150	$1.06	23d	1	1.39mi
205 Lark St Leander, TX	4.0	2.0	2025	$2,150	$1.06	25d	1	1.39mi
208 Wagon Spoke Way Liberty Hill, TX	4.0	3.0	2297	$2,500	$1.09	19d	1	1.42mi
713 Mallow Rd Leander, TX	4.0	3.0	2356	$2,295	$0.97	6d	1	1.47mi
720 Mallow Rd Leander, TX	4.0	2.0	2071	$2,295	$1.11	12d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $60 · $720/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $375,000 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $375,000 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $375,000 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $390,000 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $390,000 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $390,000 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $390,000 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $390,000 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $390,000 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $390,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $390,000 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $390,000 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $390,000 Active 43 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $390,000 Active 42 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $390,000 Active 41 DOM
16. 2026-05-05
    price $400,000 1094-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1094 chars)

    This spacious 5-bedroom, 2.5-bath home sits on a corner lot and offers a flexible layout designed for both everyday living and effortless entertaining. The open kitchen flows seamlessly into the main living area, creating a natural gathering space at the heart of the home. Three additional living areas—a main living room, a versatile flex space, and an upstairs game room—provide endless options for work, play, or relaxation. The primary suite is conveniently located on the main floor and features tray ceilings and a private en-suite bath. Upstairs, four secondary bedrooms share a full bathroom, giving everyone plenty of room and privacy. Outside, the extended covered patio and playscape make the backyard perfect for outdoor dining, playtime, and weekend enjoyment. With high ceilings, a thoughtful floor plan, and a prime location near Larkspur Elementary and local amenities, this Leander home offers space, comfort, and convenience for its next owner. Seller is willing to assist with closing costs or a rate buy-down through a preferred lender with an acceptable offer.

17. 2026-04-20
    listed $415,000 Active 1094-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1094 chars)

    This spacious 5-bedroom, 2.5-bath home sits on a corner lot and offers a flexible layout designed for both everyday living and effortless entertaining. The open kitchen flows seamlessly into the main living area, creating a natural gathering space at the heart of the home. Three additional living areas—a main living room, a versatile flex space, and an upstairs game room—provide endless options for work, play, or relaxation. The primary suite is conveniently located on the main floor and features tray ceilings and a private en-suite bath. Upstairs, four secondary bedrooms share a full bathroom, giving everyone plenty of room and privacy. Outside, the extended covered patio and playscape make the backyard perfect for outdoor dining, playtime, and weekend enjoyment. With high ceilings, a thoughtful floor plan, and a prime location near Larkspur Elementary and local amenities, this Leander home offers space, comfort, and convenience for its next owner. Seller is willing to assist with closing costs or a rate buy-down through a preferred lender with an acceptable offer.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,088
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$5,625
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,487
• − Management: −$2,487
• − HOA: −$720
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$14,021
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,365
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,894/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Leander ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827030
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $84,527
• Composite: 47.73/100
• National rank: #2238
• State rank: #100 of 826 in TX

Livability — Leander

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #940

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 680,029 people
• City population: 99,865
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 99,865
• Household income: $135,024
• Rent vs Own: 22.8% rent · 77.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1533.0

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 14% Asian 11% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.33%
• Current HPI: 203.2689
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.66%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $400,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $415,000 Unlock MLS