19225 N Cave Creek Rd #70 · Phoenix, AZ 85024

$47,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured · 145 Days on market

Built 2014 2,150 sqft lot Est $55k · 13% under ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Manufactured & Move-in Ready in North Scottsdale! Located in the desirable Whispering Palms 55+ community, this charming 2-bed, 2-bath manufactured home offers comfort & convenience. The kitchen includes a gas range, refrigerator, dishwasher & dining area that flows seamlessly into the bright living/dining space. Both bedrooms are comfortably sized, with two closets & the primary features an ensuite bath. Washer & dryer are included & conveniently located inside, plus an attached carport for added ease. Community amenities include a pool, clubhouse & pet-friendly spaces for an active yet relaxed lifestyle. With easy access to Loop 101 & Hwy 51

Key facts

• Attached carport
• Community amenities
• Pet-friendly spaces

Tags

• GAS RANGE
• ATTACHED CARPORT
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• PET-FRIENDLY SPACES
• EASY ACCESS TO LOOP 101
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $48k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $48k).
• Recommended offer: $42k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 32.6% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 201 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $328 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.4% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($42k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $41,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 32.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 93.83%
• DSCR: 5.17
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $54,880
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19225 N Cave Creek Rd N #61	0.11mi	2/1.5	758 (-3%)	12mo	$11,000	$15	78
2619 E Oraibi Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	730 (-7%)	1mo	$125,000	$171	71
2502 E Cowan Cir	0.28mi	1/1.0 (-1)	750 (-4%)	14mo	$169,900	$227	59
19602 N 32nd St #62	0.70mi	2/2.0	784 (0%)	13mo	$65,000	$83	57
19602 N 32nd St #24	0.70mi	2/2.0	800 (+2%)	10mo	$62,000	$78	56
2701 E Utopia Rd #234	0.30mi	2/1.0	896 (+14%)	3mo	$18,000	$20	56
19602 N 32 St #78	0.70mi	2/2.0	792 (+1%)	19mo	$50,000	$63	50
2120 E Bluefield Ave #141	0.67mi	1/1.0 (-1)	768 (-2%)	13mo	$45,000	$59	45
18026 N Cave Creek Rd #101	0.73mi	2/1.0	784 (0%)	21mo	$55,000	$70	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 92.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.20×
• Total profit: $55,885
• Equity at exit: $7,082

10-year hold

• IRR: 95.4%
• Equity multiple: 10.28×
• Total profit: $123,410
• Equity at exit: $4,107

Cash invested: $13,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85024

• Home prices YoY: -21.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 201
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,732 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$249
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$59 /mo · $712/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $1,040

Break-even live

Break-even rent $416

Max offer price $47,500

Occupancy floor 35%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,875
• Closing costs: $1,425
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19635 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.0–2.0	999	$1,643	$1.64	1d	22	0.34mi
18660 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	961	$1,622	$1.69	1d	11	0.39mi
2500 E Marco Polo Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	918	$2,390	$2.60	2d	16	0.46mi
18416 N Cave Creek Rd Unit 6 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	748	$1,250	$1.67	7d	1	0.53mi
20050 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	909	$1,770	$1.95	1d	10	0.54mi
18416 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	786	$3,000	$3.81	3d	9	0.55mi
18202 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	722	$1,148	$1.59	3d	7	0.68mi
2220 E Beardsley Rd Phoenix, AZ	4.0	1.0–2.0	855	$1,694	$1.98	2d	62	0.73mi
2554 E Villa Rita Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1118	$2,750	$2.46	24d	1	0.73mi
2077 E Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	720	$1,295	$1.80	24d	1	0.95mi
2067 E Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	840	$1,395	$1.66	24d	1	0.96mi
3301 E Wescott Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1101	$1,995	$1.81	24d	1	0.97mi
17602 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	650	$1,625	$2.50	2d	13	1.04mi
1814 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1003	$1,637	$1.63	1d	12	1.48mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-03-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-06
   price $47,500
3. 2025-12-29
   price $49,500
4. 2025-11-05
   listed $55,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥110°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,782
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,661
• − Property taxes: −$712
• − Insurance: −$238
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,663
• − Management: −$1,663
• − Depreciation: −$1,382
• Taxable income: $12,465
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,992
• After-tax cash flow: $9,487/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paradise Valley Unified District (4241)
• NCES district ID: 0405930
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,106
• Composite: 37.89/100
• National rank: #4316
• State rank: #56 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 26,199
• Household income: $106,724
• Rent vs Own: 34.1% rent · 65.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 547.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 12% Asian 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.95%
• Current HPI: 312.7238
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.44%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-13.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $47,500 ARMLS
• 2025-12-29 Price Changed $49,500 ARMLS
• 2025-11-05 Listed $55,000 ARMLS