5A Hemlock Dr · North Bay Shore, NY 11706

$219,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Townhouse · 10 Days on market

Built 1967 Fair condition 871 sqft lot Est $211k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.5/30.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• ARV discount +5.8/15.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Vacant 1 Bedroom first floor with separate office

Key facts

• Built 1967
• Listed 10 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $219k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $407 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $219k).
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.5% in North Bay Shore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#678 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Brentwood Union Free School District (suburban): math 35% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #542 of 590 in NY (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: East Elementary School (507 students, 74% FRL); East Middle School (math 18% / reading 33%, grade F, #597 of 729 statewide, top 82%, 1,159 students, 87% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 208 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.97%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $211,200
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15 Hemlock Dr E Unit B18	0.09mi	1/1.0	800 (0%)	11mo	$230,000	$288	87
126 Hemlock Dr Unit 3a	0.05mi	2/1.0 (+1)	871 (+9%)	1mo	$180,000	$207	77
5B Hemlock Dr #101	0.03mi	2/1.0 (+1)	871 (+9%)	8mo	$230,000	$264	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-11,042
• Equity at exit: $32,654

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $17,731
• Equity at exit: $18,935

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11706

• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 208
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,431 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$274 /mo · $3,285/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$511
• Net cashflow: $407

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,916

Max offer price $219,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1 Hemlock Dr Unit C152 Bay Shore, NY	2.0	1.0	707	$2,550	$3.61	24d	1	0.10mi
1158 Nugent Ave Bay Shore, NY	1.0	1.0	700	$1,800	$2.57	24d	1	0.60mi
1077 Martinstein Ave Bay Shore, NY	2.0	1.0	650	$2,500	$3.85	43d	1	1.07mi
1731 N Gardiner Dr Unit 5A Bay Shore, NY	2.0	1.0	625	$2,695	$4.31	43d	1	1.10mi
1737 N Gardiner Dr Unit DRIVE-22B Bay Shore, NY	2.0	1.0	625	$2,695	$4.31	43d	1	1.11mi
1739 N Gardiner Dr Unit 19B Bay Shore, NY	2.0	1.0	625	$2,750	$4.40	43d	1	1.12mi
1741 N Gardiner Dr Unit 14B Bay Shore, NY	2.0	1.0	625	$2,695	$4.31	43d	1	1.12mi
1743 N Gardiner Dr Unit 12B Bay Shore, NY	2.0	1.0	625	$2,695	$4.31	43d	1	1.13mi
17 Chimney Ln Bay Shore, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$2,200	$2.44	21d	1	1.13mi
55 Pinebrook Pl Bay Shore, NY	1.0	1.0	835	$2,275	$2.72	43d	1	1.39mi
31 Newbrook Ln Unit 31 Bay Shore, NY	1.0	1.0	900	$2,300	$2.56	43d	1	1.39mi
85 Newbrook Ln Unit 85N Bay Shore, NY	1.0	1.0	800	$2,300	$2.88	43d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-24
   listed $219,000 Active
3. 2024-09-14
   historical $2,000
4. 2024-09-06
   price $2,000
5. 2024-08-25
   listed $2,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,176
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$3,285
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,334
• − Management: −$2,334
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable income: $1,489
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$357
• After-tax cash flow: $4,530/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The property requires moderate renovations to improve its curb appeal and interior aesthetics, which can significantly increase its value for both resale and rental purposes.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Aesthetic update needed to modernize the space.
• Minor Bathroom fixtures — Update to fixtures for a more modern look.
• Moderate Landscaping — Landscaping needs a refresh to improve curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint can significantly improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Updating kitchen cabinets and countertops — Modernizing the kitchen can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Updating bathroom fixtures and tiling — Modernizing the bathroom can enhance both resale and rental appeal.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Aesthetic update needed to modernize the space.	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom fixtures · Update to fixtures for a more modern look.	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · Landscaping needs a refresh to improve curb appeal.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$4,000–21,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint can significantly improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating kitchen cabinets and countertops — Modernizing the kitchen can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Updating bathroom fixtures and tiling — Modernizing the bathroom can enhance both resale and rental appeal. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brentwood Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3605280
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $71,840
• Composite: 32.44/100
• National rank: #5722
• State rank: #542 of 590 in NY

Livability — North Bay Shore

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #678
• US rank: #12701

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Bay Shore, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 68,976
• Household income: $119,603
• Rent vs Own: 25.0% rent · 75.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1516.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 33% Two or more races 13% Black 11% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 8% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Hispanic 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Spanish 38% Other Indo-European 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -723.52%
• Current HPI: 311.4019
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.37%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+9854.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-24 Listed $219,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-14 Rental Removed $2,000 ONEKEY
• 2024-09-06 Price Changed $2,000 ONEKEY
• 2024-08-25 Listed for Rent $2,200 ONEKEY