1707 Crossbill St · Forney, TX 75126

$231,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,311 sqft · Land · 134 Days on market

Built 2025 4,487 sqft lot $177/sqft · at area comps Est $241k · at est. $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.0/30.0
• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LENNAR Watermill Collection at Falcon Heights- Oakridge Floorplan - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $232k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $113 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (12.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (12.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.1% in Forney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2200 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $203,236 (12.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.08%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $240,896
• List price: $231,999
• Delta: -3.69%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-33,634
• Equity at exit: $34,592

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-32,840
• Equity at exit: $20,059

Cash invested: $64,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2200
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,032 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,217
• Tax from tax record: −$138 /mo · $1,651/yr
• Insurance: −$97
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,890

Max offer price $231,999

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $244	-5% $178	+0% $113	+5% $47	+10% $-19
Rent	-10% $-48	-5% $32	+0% $113	+5% $193	+10% $273
Rate	-1.0pp $230	-0.5pp $172	base $113	+0.5pp $53	+1.0pp $-9

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,000
• Closing costs: $6,960
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1426 Merlin Bluff St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,785	$1.17	23d	1	0.01mi
1708 Crossbill St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$1,840	$1.05	16d	1	0.03mi
1419 Merlin Bluff St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,900	$1.31	14d	1	0.04mi
1621 Sparrow Hawk Rd Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,785	$1.17	23d	1	0.04mi
1611 Sparrow Hawk Rd Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,800	$1.18	45d	1	0.06mi
1715 Crossbill St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,785	$1.17	23d	1	0.06mi
1716 Crossbill St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1451	$1,785	$1.23	45d	1	0.07mi
1718 Crossbill St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,730	$1.32	23d	1	0.07mi
1719 Crossbill St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,795	$1.22	23d	1	0.08mi
1720 Crossbill St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,785	$1.22	45d	1	0.08mi
1405 Merlin Bluff St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,400	$1.60	7d	1	0.09mi
1723 Crossbill St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,785	$1.22	45d	1	0.09mi
1725 Crossbill St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1451	$1,785	$1.23	45d	1	0.10mi
1211 Canyon Wren Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$2,400	$1.45	23d	1	0.11mi
1223 Canyon Wren Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,800	$1.18	45d	1	0.11mi
1727 Crossbill St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,750	$1.33	20d	1	0.11mi
1227 Canyon Wren Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1474	$1,995	$1.35	45d	1	0.11mi
1229 Canyon Wren Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,785	$1.22	45d	1	0.12mi
1231 Canyon Wren Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1451	$1,785	$1.23	45d	1	0.12mi
1220 Canyon Wren Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1720	$1,815	$1.06	8d	1	0.12mi
1222 Canyon Wren Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,775	$1.36	45d	1	0.12mi
1228 Canyon Wren Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1451	$1,785	$1.23	45d	1	0.13mi
1289 Wedgeleaf Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,785	$1.17	23d	1	0.14mi
1285 Wedgeleaf Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,800	$1.18	45d	1	0.15mi
1281 Wedgeleaf Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,805	$1.19	14d	1	0.16mi
1429 Dovekie Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$2,500	$1.91	3d	1	0.19mi
1318 Canyon Wren Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,699	$1.20	23d	1	0.21mi
1355 Wedgeleaf Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$2,200	$1.51	45d	1	0.21mi
1147 Barbary Fields St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1522	$2,200	$1.45	0d	1	0.24mi
1625 Rosy Finch Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$2,095	$1.26	45d	1	0.24mi
1622 Rosy Finch Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1665	$2,195	$1.32	45d	1	0.25mi
1158 Barbary Fields St Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1780	$2,200	$1.24	0d	1	0.25mi
1631 Rosy Finch Dr Heath, TX	4.0	2.0	1665	$2,600	$1.56	18d	1	0.26mi
2043 Pleasant Knoll Cir Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1734	$2,099	$1.21	45d	1	0.29mi
1729 High Perch Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1720	$2,350	$1.37	45d	1	0.30mi
1728 High Perch Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,800	$1.22	20d	1	0.31mi
1947 Aves Glen Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$2,195	$1.56	25d	1	0.32mi
2330 Aspen Hill Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$1,795	$1.20	20d	1	0.39mi
2111 River Pine Rd Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1496	$1,950	$1.30	45d	1	0.42mi
2003 Pine Stone Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1488	$2,000	$1.34	45d	1	0.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $231,999 Active 134 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $231,999 Active 131 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $231,999 Active 130 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $231,999 Active 129 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $231,999 Active 128 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $231,999 Active 126 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $231,999 Active 125 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $231,999 Active 122 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $231,999 Active 121 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $231,999 Active 120 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $231,999 Active 117 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $231,999 Active 116 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $231,999 Active 115 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $231,999 Active 114 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $231,999 Active 113 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    price $231,999 591-char remark

    Show marketing remark (591 chars)

    LENNAR Watermill Collection at Falcon Heights- Oakridge Floorplan - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

17. 2026-02-14
    price $244,999 591-char remark

    Show marketing remark (591 chars)

    LENNAR Watermill Collection at Falcon Heights- Oakridge Floorplan - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

18. 2026-02-07
    listed $243,999 Active 591-char remark

    Show marketing remark (591 chars)

    LENNAR Watermill Collection at Falcon Heights- Oakridge Floorplan - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,651 · $138/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,246 · $354/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,595/yr (+$216/mo · 157.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,388
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,996
• − Property taxes: −$1,651
• − Insurance: −$1,160
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,951
• − Management: −$1,951
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$6,749
• Taxable loss: −$2,573
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$618
• After-tax cash flow: $1,970/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $231,999 NTREIS
• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $244,999 NTREIS
• 2026-02-07 Listed $243,999 NTREIS