802 16th St · Seagraves, TX 79359

$49,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,360 sqft · SingleFamily · 10 Days on market

Built 1992 Fair condition 9,797 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

Investor special with some serious potential! This 3 bed, 1 bath home offers 1,360 sq ft and hardwood floors throughout, sitting on a spacious lot in Seagraves. This home has solid bones along with the HVAC! Perfect for a flip, rental, or someone ready to build equity fast! Bring your offers before its gone!

Key facts

• 9,797 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1992

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (detached) with 1 car space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story; Fixer condition
• Construction: Wood siding; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built as single-family residential
• Exterior features: Front porch, rear porch and patio; Fenced front and back yard (chain link); Composition roof

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: See remarks; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $49k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $672 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $49k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#281 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities C-, employment D+, schools F.
• Seagraves ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #693 of 826 in TX (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 19 units permitted in Gaines County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $489 of equity ($339 loan paydown + $150 appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Gaines County population projected at +58% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $49,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 58.78%
• DSCR: 3.62
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.31% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 60.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.07×
• Total profit: $42,095
• Equity at exit: $14,981

10-year hold

• IRR: 62.8%
• Equity multiple: 8.22×
• Total profit: $99,086
• Equity at exit: $18,621

Cash invested: $13,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79359

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,279 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$61 /mo · $735/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $672

Break-even live

Break-even rent $429

Max offer price $49,000

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $706	-5% $689	+0% $672	+5% $655	+10% $638
Rent	-10% $571	-5% $621	+0% $672	+5% $723	+10% $773
Rate	-1.0pp $697	-0.5pp $684	base $672	+0.5pp $659	+1.0pp $646

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,250
• Closing costs: $1,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $49,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on marketlisting id $49,000 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-03-30
   listed $50,000 Active 309-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,352
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,745
• − Property taxes: −$735
• − Insurance: −$245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,228
• − Management: −$1,228
• − Depreciation: −$1,425
• Taxable income: $7,745
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,859
• After-tax cash flow: $6,205/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home in Seagraves, TX, requires significant repairs and maintenance, particularly to the roof, siding, and exterior. Improvements in these areas would significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Significant wear and tear, potential leaks.
• Major siding — Peeling and faded paint.
• Major exterior — Sparse and overgrown landscaping, missing fencing sections.
• Major exterior — Poor condition of the exterior walls and paint.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and fencing repairs — Improving the curb appeal and safety of the property.
• Both Roof repair — Fixing the roof will prevent further damage and improve the home's overall condition.
• Both Siding repair and repainting — Updating the siding and repainting will improve the home's appearance and value.
• Both Landscaping and fencing repairs — Improving the curb appeal and safety of the property.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Significant wear and tear, potential leaks.	Major	$15,000–50,000
siding · Peeling and faded paint.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior · Sparse and overgrown landscaping, missing fencing sections.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior · Poor condition of the exterior walls and paint.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and fencing repairs — Improving the curb appeal and safety of the property. ↑
• Both Roof repair — Fixing the roof will prevent further damage and improve the home's overall condition. ↑
• Both Siding repair and repainting — Updating the siding and repainting will improve the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Both Landscaping and fencing repairs — Improving the curb appeal and safety of the property. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Seagraves ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839600
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $46,938
• Composite: 22.66/100
• National rank: #8053
• State rank: #693 of 826 in TX

Livability — Seagraves

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #281
• US rank: #6562

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D+ Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Seagraves, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,465

Population outlook (Gaines County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,287 people
• By 2030: 27,989 · +10.7%
• By 2040: 33,895 · +34.0%
• By 2050: 40,001 · +58.2%
• By 2075: 55,259 · +118.5%
• By 2100: 65,681 · +159.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 57% White 28% Two or more races 26% Black 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Polish 4% European 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 42% German/W. Germanic 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Gaines

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+82.6) · D 8.4% · R 91.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.4pp toward R · 2008: -67.2pp · 2024: -82.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+82.6 2020: R+79.7 2016: R+71.8 2012: R+72.5 2008: R+67.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.31%
• Current HPI: 82.9375
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $49,000 LARMLS