115-117 W Water St · Lewistown, PA 17044

$74,000

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Other · 37 Days on market

Built 1974 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming and affordable 1974 double wide home with full foundation in a convenient Lewistown location. This 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home offers comfortable living on a roomy lot with plenty of off street parking. No immediate residential neighbors for added privacy. Located in the commercial district so options for business ventures or office space are possible. Recent updates include a new metal roof and gutters installed in April 2026 giving peace of mind for years to come. Enjoy efficient natural gas heat, a storage shed for extra space and a family friendly setting close to Victory Park perfect for walking and outdoor recreation as well as the Juniata river where you can enjoy fishing and

Key facts

• New metal roof
• Full foundation
• Storage shed

Tags

• FULL FOUNDATION
• NEW METAL ROOF
• STORAGE SHED
• CLOSE TO VICTORY PARK
• NOT LOCATED IN A FLOOD ZONE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $74k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $475 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $74k).
• Recommended offer: $72k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.0% vs local median 5.0% in Lewistown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#1,057 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Mifflin County SD (town): math 28% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #380 of 539 in PA (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 58 units permitted in Mifflin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $512 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mifflin County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($72k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $71,780 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.53%
• DSCR: 2.23
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $18,306
• Equity at exit: $11,034

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.65×
• Total profit: $55,004
• Equity at exit: $6,398

Cash invested: $20,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17044

• Home prices YoY: -6.7%
• Active inventory: 73
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,249 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$388
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$92 /mo · $1,110/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $475

Break-even live

Break-even rent $647

Max offer price $74,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,500
• Closing costs: $2,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $74,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $74,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $74,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $74,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $74,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $74,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $74,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $74,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $74,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $74,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $74,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $74,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $74,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $74,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    listed $74,000 Active 1106-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 63% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,989
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,145
• − Property taxes: −$1,110
• − Insurance: −$370
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,199
• − Management: −$1,199
• − Depreciation: −$2,153
• Taxable income: $4,813
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,155
• After-tax cash flow: $4,550/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This 1974 double-wide home requires significant repairs, particularly to the roof and exterior siding, to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The satellite image suggests potential roof issues.
• Moderate exterior siding — The siding shows signs of wear and discoloration.

Value-add opportunities

• Both repair roof — Fixing the roof would improve the home's appearance and functionality.
• Both paint exterior — Painting the exterior would enhance curb appeal and protect the siding from further damage.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · The satellite image suggests potential roof issues.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · The siding shows signs of wear and discoloration.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$18,000–65,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both repair roof — Fixing the roof would improve the home's appearance and functionality. ↑
• Both paint exterior — Painting the exterior would enhance curb appeal and protect the siding from further damage. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mifflin County SD
• NCES district ID: 4215290
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $40,718
• Composite: 32.28/100
• National rank: #5755
• State rank: #380 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lewistown

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #1057
• US rank: #11920

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lewistown, PA
• Population (ZIP): 20,526

Population outlook (Mifflin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,611 people
• By 2030: 43,212 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 40,197 · -9.9%
• By 2050: 36,813 · -17.5%
• By 2075: 28,833 · -35.4%
• By 2100: 20,296 · -54.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Polish 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mifflin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+56.4) · D 21.4% · R 77.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.8pp toward R · 2008: -33.7pp · 2024: -56.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+56.4 2020: R+56.1 2016: R+57.5 2012: R+46.8 2008: R+33.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.27%
• Current HPI: 214.2729
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $74,000 FSBO.com