5421 Lake View Dr · Oak Trail Shores, TX 76048

$129,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured public records · 219 Days on market

Built 2019 4,225 sqft lot $108/sqft · 33% below area Est $194k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully refurbished home in a quiet Granbury neighborhood just moments from the Brazos River. This newly remodeled property features updated flooring, modern finishes, fresh paint, and comfortable living spaces throughout. The kitchen offers clean, stylish updates and great functionality, while the bedrooms provide a relaxing retreat. Enjoy a spacious yard with room for outdoor activities and easy access to nearby recreation, dining, and shopping. This move-in-ready home offers an excellent opportunity for anyone looking for a refreshed property in a desirable location. Owner financing is available, making this an accessible option for qualified buyers.

Key facts

• Refurbished home
• Brazos river
• 4,225 sq ft lot

Tags

• REFURBISHED HOME
• BRAZOS RIVER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $414 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 5.9% in Oak Trail Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,187 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 929 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 219 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 219 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.84%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $194,447
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: -33.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5428 Water View Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-4%)	8mo	$119,500	$104	80
5528 Lake View Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,310 (+9%)	2mo	$154,900	$118	69
3284 Flint Ct	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,216 (+1%)	22mo	$130,000	$107	45
5831 Arrowhead Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,216 (+1%)	22mo	$139,500	$115	44
5803 Georgia Trl	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,116 (-7%)	22mo	$165,000	$148	37
5823 Arrowhead Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,278 (+6%)	22mo	$139,500	$109	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $2,171
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $23,478
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76048

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 929
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,685 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,388/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $414

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,161

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5418 Lake View Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1284	$1,300	$1.01	43d	1	0.01mi
3225 Evergreen Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	1.0	916	$1,425	$1.56	1d	1	1.03mi
4321 Terri Lee Ln Granbury, TX	4.0	2.0	1387	$2,075	$1.50	1d	1	1.32mi
4214 W Virginia Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1064	$1,595	$1.50	43d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 219 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 218 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 217 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 216 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 214 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 210 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active 209 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,900 Active 208 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $129,900 Active 205 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 204 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 203 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 202 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 201 DOM
14. 2025-11-10
    historical

    Show marketing remark (665 chars)

    Beautifully refurbished home in a quiet Granbury neighborhood just moments from the Brazos River. This newly remodeled property features updated flooring, modern finishes, fresh paint, and comfortable living spaces throughout. The kitchen offers clean, stylish updates and great functionality, while the bedrooms provide a relaxing retreat. Enjoy a spacious yard with room for outdoor activities and easy access to nearby recreation, dining, and shopping. This move-in-ready home offers an excellent opportunity for anyone looking for a refreshed property in a desirable location. Owner financing is available, making this an accessible option for qualified buyers.

15. 2025-11-10
    listed $129,900 Active 665-char remark

    Show marketing remark (665 chars)

    Beautifully refurbished home in a quiet Granbury neighborhood just moments from the Brazos River. This newly remodeled property features updated flooring, modern finishes, fresh paint, and comfortable living spaces throughout. The kitchen offers clean, stylish updates and great functionality, while the bedrooms provide a relaxing retreat. Enjoy a spacious yard with room for outdoor activities and easy access to nearby recreation, dining, and shopping. This move-in-ready home offers an excellent opportunity for anyone looking for a refreshed property in a desirable location. Owner financing is available, making this an accessible option for qualified buyers.

16. 2025-07-26
    listed $107,500 Active
17. 2009-03-05
    soldstatus
18. 1984-02-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,388 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,377 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: +$989/yr (+$82/mo · 71.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 77% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,219
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,388
• − Insurance: −$1,447
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,618
• − Management: −$1,618
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $3,094
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$742
• After-tax cash flow: $4,221/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Oak Trail Shores

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1187
• US rank: #20758

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,000
• Household income: $70,346
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 612.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.25%
• Current HPI: 272.2126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.10%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+20.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-10 Listed $129,900 NTREIS
• 2025-11-10 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-07-26 Listed $107,500 NTREIS
• 2009-03-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1984-02-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+11.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,388 · -1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.