1100 W Driftwood Dr · Payson, AZ 85541

$227,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,016 sqft · Manufactured public records · 161 Days on market

Built 1983 6,062 sqft lot $113/sqft · 32% below area Est $332k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom 2 bath, split floor plan, beautiful fireplace, large living room,1983 CAVCO manufactured home in the lovely Woodland Meadows. Great corner lot. NO HOA. 2 car carport and a workshop. Has tie downs. Home is in need of TLC.

Key facts

• Beautiful fireplace
• Split floor plan
• Large living room

Tags

• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• BEAUTIFUL FIREPLACE
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• CORNER LOT
• WORKSHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $227k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $766 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $227k).
• Recommended offer: $200k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 3.3% in Payson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#44 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A, crime B, cost of living B; Watch: schools C-, amenities D-, commute F.
• Payson Unified District (4209) (town): math 20% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #138 of 249 in AZ (top 55%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 695 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 217 units permitted in Gila County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,715/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($66k/yr) (locally 523% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gila County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($200k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $48k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,760 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.46%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $331,757
• List price: $227,000
• Delta: -31.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1119 W Driftwood Dr	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,176 (+8%)	2mo	$367,500	$169	75
110 S Pinecrest Rd	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,824 (-10%)	12mo	$299,990	$164	72
905 W Driftwood Dr	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (-11%)	2mo	$336,600	$188	67
101 N Lakeshore Rd	0.06mi	3/3.0	1,792 (-11%)	13mo	$325,000	$181	64
114 N Foothill Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,724 (-14%)	9mo	$346,500	$201	64
103 N Bryce Cir	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,810 (-10%)	10mo	$390,000	$215	57
307 S Stone Creek Cir	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,768 (-12%)	4mo	$340,000	$192	49
208 N Whiting Dr	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,778 (-12%)	15mo	$315,000	$177	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $11,914
• Equity at exit: $33,846

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $72,871
• Equity at exit: $19,627

Cash invested: $63,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85541

• Home prices YoY: -6.6%
• Active inventory: 695
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,715 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,190
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,125/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$570
• Net cashflow: $766

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,745

Max offer price $227,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,750
• Closing costs: $6,810
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
400 S Canpar Way Payson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1804	$2,400	$1.33	43d	1	0.62mi
816 N Blue Spruce Cir Payson, AZ	4.0	3.0	3000	$3,300	$1.10	43d	1	0.68mi
955 W Ensenada Ln Payson, AZ	2.0	2.5	1562	$3,500	$2.24	21d	1	0.91mi
605 N Spur Dr Unit B Payson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1800	$2,400	$1.33	43d	1	1.14mi
605 N Spur Dr Payson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1800	$2,400	$1.33	43d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $227,000 Active 161 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $227,000 Active 160 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $227,000 Active 159 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $227,000 Active 158 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $227,000 Active 157 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $227,000 Active 155 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $227,000 Active 154 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $227,000 Active 151 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $227,000 Active 150 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 695-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $227,000 Active 149 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $227,000 Active 145 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $227,000 Active 144 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $227,000 Active 143 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $227,000 Active 142 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $227,000 Active 141 DOM
17. 2026-04-28
    status Active 230-char remark

    Show marketing remark (230 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath, split floor plan, beautiful fireplace, large living room,1983 CAVCO manufactured home in the lovely Woodland Meadows. Great corner lot. NO HOA. 2 car carport and a workshop. Has tie downs. Home is in need of TLC.

18. 2026-04-27
    status Active 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath, split floor plan, beautiful fireplace, large living room, 1983 CAVCO manufactured home in the lovely Woodland Meadows. Great corner lot. NO HOA. 2 car carport and a workshop. Has tie downs. Home is in need of TLC. This home is a short sale.

19. 2026-04-04
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 230-char remark

    Show marketing remark (230 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath, split floor plan, beautiful fireplace, large living room,1983 CAVCO manufactured home in the lovely Woodland Meadows. Great corner lot. NO HOA. 2 car carport and a workshop. Has tie downs. Home is in need of TLC.

20. 2026-04-02
    historical Active Under Contract 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath, split floor plan, beautiful fireplace, large living room, 1983 CAVCO manufactured home in the lovely Woodland Meadows. Great corner lot. NO HOA. 2 car carport and a workshop. Has tie downs. Home is in need of TLC. This home is a short sale.

21. 2026-04-01
    price $227,000 230-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath, split floor plan, beautiful fireplace, large living room, 1983 CAVCO manufactured home in the lovely Woodland Meadows. Great corner lot. NO HOA. 2 car carport and a workshop. Has tie downs. Home is in need of TLC. This home is a short sale.

22. 2026-04-01
    price $227,000 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath, split floor plan, beautiful fireplace, large living room, 1983 CAVCO manufactured home in the lovely Woodland Meadows. Great corner lot. NO HOA. 2 car carport and a workshop. Has tie downs. Home is in need of TLC. This home is a short sale.

23. 2026-01-09
    listed $275,000 Active 230-char remark

    Show marketing remark (230 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath, split floor plan, beautiful fireplace, large living room,1983 CAVCO manufactured home in the lovely Woodland Meadows. Great corner lot. NO HOA. 2 car carport and a workshop. Has tie downs. Home is in need of TLC.

24. 2026-01-08
    listed $275,000 Active 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 bath, split floor plan, beautiful fireplace, large living room, 1983 CAVCO manufactured home in the lovely Woodland Meadows. Great corner lot. NO HOA. 2 car carport and a workshop. Has tie downs. Home is in need of TLC. This home is a short sale.

25. 2022-11-21
    soldstatus $257,500
26. 2022-11-21
    soldstatus $257,500
27. 2022-11-18
    soldstatus $257,500 Closed
28. 2022-10-30
    status Pending
29. 2022-10-03
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
30. 2022-09-30
    price $250,000
31. 2022-09-20
    price $265,000
32. 2022-09-14
    price $285,000
33. 2022-09-02
    listed $250,000
34. 2022-09-02
    listed $295,000 Active
35. 2002-04-16
    soldstatus $114,900
36. 1994-01-10
    soldstatus $89,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,125 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,498 · $125/mo
• Expected delta: +$373/yr (+$31/mo · 33.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,575
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,125
• − Insurance: −$1,135
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,606
• − Management: −$2,606
• − Depreciation: −$6,604
• Taxable income: $5,784
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,388
• After-tax cash flow: $7,801/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Payson Unified District (4209)
• NCES district ID: 0406070
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $41,440
• Composite: 22.03/100
• National rank: #8200
• State rank: #138 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Payson

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #44
• US rank: #8740

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime B Employment B- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Payson, AZ
• County: Gila County · 23,382 people
• City population: 23,382
• Metro: Payson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 23,382
• Household income: $66,383
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 523.0

Population outlook (Gila County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,229 people
• By 2030: 48,202 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 44,101 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 41,041 · -18.3%
• By 2075: 37,536 · -25.3%
• By 2100: 32,485 · -35.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gila

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.8% · R 68.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.8pp toward R · 2008: -27.8pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+32.4 2012: R+26.4 2008: R+27.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.4005
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Payson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+153.6% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Relisted — CAAR
• 2026-04-04 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Contingent — CAAR
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $227,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $227,000 CAAR
• 2026-01-09 Listed $275,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-08 Listed $275,000 CAAR
• 2022-11-21 Sold (Public Records) $257,500 Public Records
• 2022-11-21 Sold (MLS) $257,500 CAAR
• 2022-11-18 Sold (MLS) $257,500 ARMLS
• 2022-10-30 Pending — ARMLS
• 2022-10-03 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2022-09-30 Price Changed $250,000 ARMLS
• 2022-09-20 Price Changed $265,000 ARMLS
• 2022-09-14 Price Changed $285,000 ARMLS
• 2022-09-02 Listed $295,000 ARMLS
• 2022-09-02 Listed $250,000 CAAR
• 2002-04-16 Sold (Public Records) $114,900 Public Records
• 1994-01-10 Sold (Public Records) $89,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,125 · -2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.