165 Hemlock Dr · Effort, PA 18210

$199,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 950 sqft · SingleFamily · 59 Days on market

Built 1964 Fair condition 10,454 sqft lot $210/sqft · 12% below area Est $228k · 12% under $44/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Appreciation +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Handyman special! Investment opportunity or make this home your own! 2 Bedrooms, 1 Bath, 1 car garage close to 1,000 sq. ft of living space in Hemlock Lake community. House features open layout. Propane monitor heating system in LvRm area. Kitchen with access to the deck. Electric baseboards in bedrooms. Laundry area. House has potential and needs work. Sold AS IS. Roof is 6 +/-years old, new water heater.

Key facts

• Laundry area
• New water heater
• Open layout

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• PROPANE MONITOR HEATING SYSTEM
• KITCHEN ACCESS TO DECK
• ELECTRIC BASEBOARDS
• LAUNDRY AREA
• NEW WATER HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $155 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $194k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 2.7% in Effort — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#292 in PA, #2,576 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pleasant Valley SD (rural): math 31% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #297 of 539 in PA (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 453 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.9%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $193,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.31%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $227,750
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -12.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
104 Grape Ln	0.56mi	2/1.0	1,080 (+14%)	7mo	$295,000	$273	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.89% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-21,546
• Equity at exit: $30,813

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-5,049
• Equity at exit: $19,019

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18210

• Home prices YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 453
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $2,998/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$44
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $155

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,804

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
151 Victoria Arms Cir Unit 7 Kunkletown, PA	3.0	3.0	1105	$2,000	$1.81	43d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $44 · $528/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectric

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,900 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,900 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,900 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,900 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,900 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,900 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 43 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 42 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 41 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 40 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,900 Active 39 DOM
18. 2026-05-11
    price $199,900 409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (409 chars)

    Handyman special! Investment opportunity or make this home your own! 2 Bedrooms, 1 Bath, 1 car garage close to 1,000 sq. ft of living space in Hemlock Lake community. House features open layout. Propane monitor heating system in LvRm area. Kitchen with access to the deck. Electric baseboards in bedrooms. Laundry area. House has potential and needs work. Sold AS IS. Roof is 6 +/-years old, new water heater.

19. 2026-04-29
    price $210,000 409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (409 chars)

    Handyman special! Investment opportunity or make this home your own! 2 Bedrooms, 1 Bath, 1 car garage close to 1,000 sq. ft of living space in Hemlock Lake community. House features open layout. Propane monitor heating system in LvRm area. Kitchen with access to the deck. Electric baseboards in bedrooms. Laundry area. House has potential and needs work. Sold AS IS. Roof is 6 +/-years old, new water heater.

20. 2026-04-21
    listed $215,000 Active 409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (409 chars)

    Handyman special! Investment opportunity or make this home your own! 2 Bedrooms, 1 Bath, 1 car garage close to 1,000 sq. ft of living space in Hemlock Lake community. House features open layout. Propane monitor heating system in LvRm area. Kitchen with access to the deck. Electric baseboards in bedrooms. Laundry area. House has potential and needs work. Sold AS IS. Roof is 6 +/-years old, new water heater.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,998
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − HOA: −$528
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$1,379
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$331
• After-tax cash flow: $2,185/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires moderate renovations to update the kitchen and bathroom, and freshen the paint. It has a good roof and foundation, but the exterior and interior need attention. The propane heating system could be replaced with electric or gas for better comfort and energy efficiency.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen cabinets — Old and in need of replacement
• Major Kitchen countertops — Worn and in need of replacement
• Major Bathroom fixtures — Old and in need of replacement
• Major Paint — Scuffed and in need of fresh coats

Value-add opportunities

• Resale New kitchen cabinets and countertops — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value
• Resale New bathroom fixtures — Improves the bathroom and adds value
• Resale Paint interior walls and trim — Fresh paint enhances the home's appeal
• Both Replace propane monitor heating system — Switching to electric or gas heating system improves comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Old and in need of replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
Kitchen countertops · Worn and in need of replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathroom fixtures · Old and in need of replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
Paint · Scuffed and in need of fresh coats	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale New kitchen cabinets and countertops — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value ↑
• Resale New bathroom fixtures — Improves the bathroom and adds value ↑
• Resale Paint interior walls and trim — Fresh paint enhances the home's appeal ↑
• Both Replace propane monitor heating system — Switching to electric or gas heating system improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pleasant Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4219290
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $61,593
• Composite: 37.18/100
• National rank: #4476
• State rank: #297 of 539 in PA

Livability — Effort

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #292
• US rank: #2576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,879

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,099 people
• By 2030: 161,412 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 154,616 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 146,710 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 140,830 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 138,472 · -15.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 11% Black 6% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Russian 4% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 10% Russian/Polish/Slavic 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.1% · R 49.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: D+6.4 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.89%
• Current HPI: 203.8099
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-7.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $199,900 GLVRMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $210,000 GLVRMLS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $215,000 GLVRMLS