36121 Lake Chase Blvd #204 · Pasadena Hills, FL 33541

$115,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,149 sqft · Condo public records · 366 Days on market

Built 2002 $341/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. This Zephyrhills home has one story.

Key facts

• Window treatments
• Freshly painted
• High ceilings

Tags

• FRESHLY PAINTED
• HIGH CEILINGS
• WINDOW TREATMENTS
• VOLLEYBALL SAND COURT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $163 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.7% in Pasadena Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#723 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: West Zephyrhills Elementary School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,896 of 2,144 statewide, top 90%, 615 students, 81% FRL); Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 48% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 856 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 366 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $95k (45%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 366 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.07%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-13,037
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-16,400
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33541

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 856
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,724 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$207 /mo · $2,481/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$341
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,517

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $228	-5% $195	+0% $163	+5% $130	+10% $98
Rent	-10% $27	-5% $95	+0% $163	+5% $231	+10% $299
Rate	-1.0pp $221	-0.5pp $192	base $163	+0.5pp $133	+1.0pp $103

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
36106 Lake Chase Blvd #102 Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1170	$1,650	$1.41	5d	1	0.03mi
36106 Lake Chase Blvd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,700	$1.28	24d	1	0.04mi
36243 Lake Chase Blvd #203 Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1278	$1,775	$1.39	24d	1	0.14mi
5914 Willow Ridge Dr #101 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	987	$1,500	$1.52	24d	1	0.14mi
36009 Deer Creek Dr #104 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1029	$1,450	$1.41	24d	1	0.15mi
36015 Deer Creek Dr #202 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1062	$1,450	$1.37	24d	1	0.16mi
36321 Stonewood Ln #103 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	987	$1,525	$1.55	24d	1	0.18mi
36095 Carriage Pine Ct Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,990	$1.36	24d	1	0.55mi
35940 Inspiration Dr Zephyrhills, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1034	$1,694	$1.64	2d	21	0.72mi
36801 Camelia Ct Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,350	$1.56	24d	1	0.72mi
33529 Buttonweed Trl Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1412	$2,500	$1.77	24d	1	0.81mi
34933 Daisy Meadow Loop Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,875	$1.33	15d	1	1.11mi
6773 Branham Mill Ct Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,950	$1.34	24d	1	1.15mi
5521 Barbara St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	24d	1	1.21mi
6302 Abbott Station Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0–2.5	855	$1,732	$2.02	2d	142	1.23mi
6633 Foxmoor Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	24d	1	1.32mi
34835 Redding Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,900	$1.29	2d	1	1.32mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $341 · $4,092/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 366 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 365 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 364 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 363 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $115,000 Active 361 DOM
6. 2026-04-05
   status Pending
7. 2026-03-19
   price $115,000
8. 2025-11-24
   price $145,000
9. 2025-11-24
   status Active
10. 2025-08-19
    status Pending
11. 2025-07-11
    status Active
12. 2025-03-26
    status Pending
13. 2025-01-02
    price $165,000
14. 2024-12-03
    price $175,000
15. 2024-11-29
    status Active
16. 2024-11-24
    status Pending
17. 2024-09-30
    price $195,000
18. 2024-09-11
    listed $210,000 Active
19. 2022-07-28
    soldstatus $160,000
20. 2022-07-22
    soldstatus $160,000 Closed 84-char remark

    Show marketing remark (84 chars)

    One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. This Zephyrhills home has one story.

21. 2022-06-18
    status Pending 84-char remark

    Show marketing remark (84 chars)

    One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. This Zephyrhills home has one story.

22. 2022-06-14
    listed $175,000 Active 84-char remark

    Show marketing remark (84 chars)

    One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. This Zephyrhills home has one story.

23. 2022-06-08
    soldstatus $154,500
24. 2014-03-10
    soldstatus $30,000
25. 2014-03-03
    soldstatus $30,000 Sold 78-char remark

    Show marketing remark (78 chars)

    SHORT SALE! Nice 2 BR 2BA currently leased to renter. Unit overlooks the pond.

26. 2013-01-24
    listed $39,900 78-char remark

    Show marketing remark (78 chars)

    SHORT SALE! Nice 2 BR 2BA currently leased to renter. Unit overlooks the pond.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,481 · $207/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,481 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,683
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$2,481
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,655
• − Management: −$1,655
• − HOA: −$4,092
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $438
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$105
• After-tax cash flow: $1,849/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pasadena Hills

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #723
• US rank: #15499

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,654
• Household income: $56,579
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 393.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.21%
• Current HPI: 308.0619
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.51%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+188.2% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-05 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $115,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-24 Price Changed $145,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-24 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-19 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-11 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-26 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-02 Price Changed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-03 Price Changed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-29 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-24 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-30 Price Changed $195,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-11 Listed $210,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 2022-07-22 Sold (MLS) $160,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-18 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-14 Listed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-08 Sold (Public Records) $154,500 Public Records
• 2014-03-10 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 2014-03-03 Sold (MLS) $30,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-01-24 Listed $39,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+12.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,481 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.