2661 Bailey Creek Rd · South Corning, NY 14830

$169,750

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,025 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1956 10 ac lot Est $170k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to easy, one-level living with room to grow! This charming ranch home offers 3 bedrooms and 1.5 baths, perfectly designed for comfort and convenience. Beautiful hardwood floors run throughout, adding warmth and timeless appeal to every room. Set on 3.688 acres, this property gives you the best of both worlds—peaceful space to enjoy the outdoors while being just moments from town. The vinyl siding ensures low-maintenance living, so you can spend more time enjoying your home and less time on upkeep. The full basement is a blank canvas, ready to be finished into additional living space, a home gym, rec room, or whatever suits your needs. Whether you’re looking to expand or

Key facts

• Full basement
• 3.688 acres
• Vinyl siding

Tags

• ONE LEVEL LIVING
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• VINYL SIDING
• FULL BASEMENT
• 3.688 ACRES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $158 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $167k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#228 in NY, #3,596 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Corning City School District (town): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #406 of 590 in NY (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 106 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Steuben County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Steuben County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $27k; list at $170k implies a 520% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $167,203 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.98%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $170,150
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2661 Bailey Creek Rd	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,025 (0%)	0mo	$160,000	$156	98
2774 Davis Rd	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,020 (-0%)	8mo	$169,600	$166	68
19 S Maple	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,132 (+10%)	5mo	$110,000	$97	44
14 Speer Dr	0.69mi	2/1.0 (-1)	988 (-4%)	19mo	$177,000	$179	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-17,428
• Equity at exit: $25,310

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-2,099
• Equity at exit: $14,677

Cash invested: $47,530 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14830

• Active inventory: 106
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,706 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$890
• Tax from tax record: −$229 /mo · $2,745/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,506

Max offer price $169,750

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,438
• Closing costs: $5,092
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-03-26
   listed $169,750 Active
4. 2005-03-24
   soldstatus $27,359

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,807 · $234/mo
• Expected delta: +$62/yr (+$5/mo · 2.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,466
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,509
• − Property taxes: −$2,745
• − Insurance: −$849
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,637
• − Management: −$1,637
• − Depreciation: −$4,938
• Taxable loss: −$849
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$204
• After-tax cash flow: $2,096/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Corning City School District
• NCES district ID: 3608400
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,042
• Composite: 41.8/100
• National rank: #3392
• State rank: #406 of 590 in NY

Livability — South Corning

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #228
• US rank: #3596

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Steuben County · 41,193 people
• Metro: Corning, NY
• Population (ZIP): 19,015
• Household income: $73,263
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 565.0

Population outlook (Steuben County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 93,062 people
• By 2030: 89,793 · -3.5%
• By 2040: 82,353 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 74,286 · -20.2%
• By 2075: 55,589 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 37,587 · -59.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 3% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Steuben

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.8) · D 34.1% · R 65.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: -16.8pp · 2024: -31.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.8 2020: R+29.6 2016: R+36.2 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+16.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -94.59%
• Current HPI: 173.9857
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Corning, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+520.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-04-01 Contingent — UNYREIS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $169,750 UNYREIS
• 2005-03-24 Sold (Public Records) $27,359 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,745 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.