654 SE Baya Dr · Lake City, FL 32025

$184,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,529 sqft · SingleFamily · 210 Days on market

Built 1948 0.52 ac lot Est $199k · 7% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

WORK WHERE YOU LIVE - This 3 bed 1.5 bath home has the comforts of home with a location in the a professional district. The home boast pinewood floors, a large backyard for play or parking, cozy but classic bathroom, and even a handicap ramp. Note: close to the VA and convenient to stores and restaurants. NOTE: AN OFFER HAS BEEN ACCEPTED, BUT TAKING BACKUP OFFERS.

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Pinewood floors
• Convenient to stores

Tags

• PINEWOOD FLOORS
• LARGE BACKYARD
• PROFESSIONAL DISTRICT
• CONVENIENT TO STORES
• CONVENIENT TO RESTAURANTS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 3-car garage
• Utilities: Cable available
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story; Zoned RO
• Construction: Frame construction; Built with standard foundation
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Shed(s); Irregular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Refrigerator; Microwave
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Insulated windows

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $184k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $132 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (3.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.7% in Lake City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#304 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F, employment F.
• Columbia (town): math 53% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #25 of 73 in FL (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 178 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 210 days — a 12% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 210 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.07%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $198,770
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
493 SE Church Ave	0.27mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-6%)	2mo	$187,500	$130	69
294 SW Columbia Ave	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,526 (-0%)	2mo	$225,000	$147	65
570 SE Sunflower Pl	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-8%)	8mo	$264,500	$189	63
993 SE Putnam St	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,438 (-6%)	6mo	$165,000	$115	60
1104 SE Magnolia Loop	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+5%)	4mo	$245,655	$154	60
319 SE Avalon Ave	0.21mi	3/3.0	1,344 (-12%)	8mo	$174,400	$130	57
492 SE Lomond Ave	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,390 (-9%)	6mo	$112,500	$81	54
268 NE Anderson Ter	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,418 (-7%)	6mo	$125,000	$88	52
246 SE Lochlynn Ter	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,340 (-12%)	6mo	$259,000	$193	51
384 S Marion Ave	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,314 (-14%)	1mo	$148,000	$113	46
219 SE Hernando Ave	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,364 (-11%)	8mo	$100,000	$73	46
195 SE Emma Pl	0.70mi	3/1.5	1,748 (+14%)	4mo	$232,000	$133	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.11×
• Total profit: $108,937
• Equity at exit: $166,212

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.08×
• Total profit: $314,228
• Equity at exit: $358,443

Cash invested: $51,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32025

• Home prices YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,781 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$968
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$231 /mo · $2,768/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $132

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,614

Max offer price $184,500

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,125
• Closing costs: $5,535
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $184,500 Active 210 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $184,500 Active 209 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $184,500 Active 208 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   remarks 366-char remark
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $184,500 Active 207 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $184,500 Active 206 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $184,500 Active 204 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $184,500 Active 203 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $184,500 Active 200 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $184,500 Active 199 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $184,500 Active 198 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $198,654 Active 195 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $198,654 Active 194 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $198,654 Active 193 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $198,654 Active 192 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $198,654 Active 191 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $198,654 Active 190 DOM
18. 2026-03-30
    price $198,654
19. 2025-11-21
    listed $199,654 Active
20. 2025-03-19
    listed $215,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,377
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,335
• − Property taxes: −$2,768
• − Insurance: −$922
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,710
• − Management: −$1,710
• − Depreciation: −$5,367
• Taxable loss: −$1,435
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$344
• After-tax cash flow: $1,932/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia
• NCES district ID: 1200360
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $40,053
• Composite: 44.74/100
• National rank: #2750
• State rank: #25 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #304
• US rank: #5154

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake City, FL
• County: Columbia County · 40,507 people
• City population: 40,507
• Metro: Lake City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 22,948
• Household income: $55,004
• Rent vs Own: 40.1% rent · 59.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 754.0

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,129 people
• By 2030: 67,501 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 65,465 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 63,058 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 56,291 · -17.4%
• By 2100: 45,243 · -33.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.2) · D 24.6% · R 74.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.8pp · 2024: -50.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.2 2020: R+45.2 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+36.7 2008: R+33.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.57%
• Current HPI: 276.7253
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lake City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-7.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $198,654 NFMLS
• 2025-11-21 Listed $199,654 NFMLS
• 2025-03-19 Listed $215,000 NFMLS