512 Walnut Crossing Dr · Gibsonville, NC 27377

$315,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,038 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 78 Days on market

Built 2005 10,018 sqft lot Est $318k · at est. $18/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this 3 Bedroom/2 Bathroom home in Walnut Crossing. Features huge kitchen with granite countertops. Wonderful living room with fireplace. Master Bedroom with dual vanities, garden tub, separate shower and walk-in closet. 2 additional bedrooms on main level. Large bonus room on second level. Brand new carpet, granite countertops/backsplash in kitchen, freshly painted. Great location close to highway and shopping.

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Primary suite
• Granite countertops

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• NEWLY REPLACED TILE FLOORING
• FIREPLACE
• PRIMARY SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-260 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (14.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (29.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (29.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.2% in Gibsonville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#79 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Guilford County Schools (urban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #99 of 178 in NC (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Gibsonville Elementary (math 46% / reading 46%, grade D-, #551 of 1,410 statewide, top 40%, 564 students, 60% FRL); Eastern Guilford Middle (math 26% / reading 38%, grade F, #317 of 475 statewide, top 68%, 980 students, 75% FRL); Eastern Guilford High (math 25% / reading 37%, grade F, #454 of 535 statewide, top 85%, 1,198 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 52% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 102 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,843 units permitted in Guilford County in 2024 (2,397 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Guilford County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $223,315 (29.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.53%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $317,928
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
713 Hawthorn Ridge Dr	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,983 (-3%)	11mo	$295,900	$149	78
605 Walnut Crossing Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,852 (-9%)	5mo	$340,000	$184	77
615 Walnut Crossing Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	2,166 (+6%)	10mo	$329,000	$152	74
304 Walnut Crossing Dr	0.25mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,113 (+4%)	11mo	$304,000	$144	66
600 Hawthorn Ridge Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,822 (-11%)	9mo	$285,000	$156	65
425 Faith Dr	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,955 (-4%)	11mo	$355,000	$182	50
224 Brycewood Dr	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,830 (-10%)	11mo	$298,000	$163	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.02% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-8,201
• Equity at exit: $107,795

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $40,267
• Equity at exit: $143,451

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27377

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 102
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,233 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$223 /mo · $2,674/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$18
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $-260

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,562

Max offer price $269,112

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
708 Hawthorn Ridge Dr Whitsett, NC	3.0	2.0	2200	$2,330	$1.06	14d	1	0.10mi
1022 Poets Walk Rd Unit 1 Whitsett, NC	3.0	2.5	1706	$1,850	$1.08	21d	1	0.48mi
941 Poets Walk Rd Whitsett, NC	3.0	2.5	1598	$1,850	$1.16	23d	1	0.54mi
541 NC Highway 61 Whitsett, NC	3.0	2.5	1422	$1,839	$1.29	14d	10	0.56mi
225 Brycewood Dr Burlington, NC	4.0	2.5	1929	$1,860	$0.96	23d	1	0.69mi
1626 Daisy Park Dr Whitsett, NC	3.0	2.5	1419	$1,750	$1.23	23d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $18 · $216/yr

Listing history 31 events

1. 2025-04-15
   soldstatus $315,000
2. 2025-04-02
   status Pending
3. 2025-01-23
   historical Active Under Contract
4. 2025-01-20
   historical Due Diligence Period
5. 2025-01-13
   listed $315,000 Active
6. 2025-01-10
   listed $315,000 Active
7. 2018-09-12
   soldstatus $185,000 Sold 430-char remark

   Show marketing remark (430 chars)

   Welcome home to this 3 Bedroom/2 Bathroom home in Walnut Crossing. Features huge kitchen with granite countertops. Wonderful living room with fireplace. Master Bedroom with dual vanities, garden tub, separate shower and walk-in closet. 2 additional bedrooms on main level. Large bonus room on second level. Brand new carpet, granite countertops/backsplash in kitchen, freshly painted. Great location close to highway and shopping.

8. 2018-09-12
   soldstatus $185,000

   Show marketing remark (430 chars)

   Welcome home to this 3 Bedroom/2 Bathroom home in Walnut Crossing. Features huge kitchen with granite countertops. Wonderful living room with fireplace. Master Bedroom with dual vanities, garden tub, separate shower and walk-in closet. 2 additional bedrooms on main level. Large bonus room on second level. Brand new carpet, granite countertops/backsplash in kitchen, freshly painted. Great location close to highway and shopping.

9. 2018-09-12
   soldstatus $185,000

   Show marketing remark (430 chars)

   Welcome home to this 3 Bedroom/2 Bathroom home in Walnut Crossing. Features huge kitchen with granite countertops. Wonderful living room with fireplace. Master Bedroom with dual vanities, garden tub, separate shower and walk-in closet. 2 additional bedrooms on main level. Large bonus room on second level. Brand new carpet, granite countertops/backsplash in kitchen, freshly painted. Great location close to highway and shopping.

10. 2018-09-12
    soldstatus $185,000

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    Welcome home to this 3 Bedroom/2 Bathroom home in Walnut Crossing. Features huge kitchen with granite countertops. Wonderful living room with fireplace. Master Bedroom with dual vanities, garden tub, separate shower and walk-in closet. 2 additional bedrooms on main level. Large bonus room on second level. Brand new carpet, granite countertops/backsplash in kitchen, freshly painted. Great location close to highway and shopping.

11. 2018-09-07
    soldstatus $185,000 Closed
12. 2018-09-07
    soldstatus $185,000
13. 2018-07-30
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    Welcome home to this 3 Bedroom/2 Bathroom home in Walnut Crossing. Features huge kitchen with granite countertops. Wonderful living room with fireplace. Master Bedroom with dual vanities, garden tub, separate shower and walk-in closet. 2 additional bedrooms on main level. Large bonus room on second level. Brand new carpet, granite countertops/backsplash in kitchen, freshly painted. Great location close to highway and shopping.

14. 2018-07-30
    status Pending 430-char remark

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    Welcome home to this 3 Bedroom/2 Bathroom home in Walnut Crossing. Features huge kitchen with granite countertops. Wonderful living room with fireplace. Master Bedroom with dual vanities, garden tub, separate shower and walk-in closet. 2 additional bedrooms on main level. Large bonus room on second level. Brand new carpet, granite countertops/backsplash in kitchen, freshly painted. Great location close to highway and shopping.

15. 2018-06-20
    listed $190,000 Active
16. 2018-06-20
    listed $190,000
17. 2018-06-15
    listed $190,000 Active 430-char remark

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    Welcome home to this 3 Bedroom/2 Bathroom home in Walnut Crossing. Features huge kitchen with granite countertops. Wonderful living room with fireplace. Master Bedroom with dual vanities, garden tub, separate shower and walk-in closet. 2 additional bedrooms on main level. Large bonus room on second level. Brand new carpet, granite countertops/backsplash in kitchen, freshly painted. Great location close to highway and shopping.

18. 2018-06-15
    listed $190,000

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    Welcome home to this 3 Bedroom/2 Bathroom home in Walnut Crossing. Features huge kitchen with granite countertops. Wonderful living room with fireplace. Master Bedroom with dual vanities, garden tub, separate shower and walk-in closet. 2 additional bedrooms on main level. Large bonus room on second level. Brand new carpet, granite countertops/backsplash in kitchen, freshly painted. Great location close to highway and shopping.

19. 2018-06-15
    listed $190,000

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    Welcome home to this 3 Bedroom/2 Bathroom home in Walnut Crossing. Features huge kitchen with granite countertops. Wonderful living room with fireplace. Master Bedroom with dual vanities, garden tub, separate shower and walk-in closet. 2 additional bedrooms on main level. Large bonus room on second level. Brand new carpet, granite countertops/backsplash in kitchen, freshly painted. Great location close to highway and shopping.

20. 2017-12-12
    price $154,900
21. 2017-12-12
    price $154,900
22. 2017-11-20
    price $159,900
23. 2017-11-06
    price $164,500
24. 2017-08-25
    price $167,500
25. 2017-08-25
    price $175,000
26. 2017-07-28
    price $167,500
27. 2017-07-25
    price $164,900
28. 2006-06-30
    soldstatus $171,940
29. 2006-06-30
    soldstatus $171,940
30. 2005-11-14
    listed $171,710
31. 2005-11-14
    listed $171,710

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,674 · $223/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,674 · $223/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 18% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,798
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$2,674
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,144
• − Management: −$2,144
• − HOA: −$216
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$8,763
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,103
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,014/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Guilford County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3701920
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $46,315
• Composite: 35.78/100
• National rank: #4842
• State rank: #99 of 178 in NC

Livability — Gibsonville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #79
• US rank: #5651

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gibsonville, NC
• County: Guilford County · 487,190 people
• City population: 13,741
• Metro: Greensboro-High Point, NC
• Population (ZIP): 10,885
• Household income: $90,181
• Rent vs Own: 29.9% rent · 70.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 356.0

Population outlook (Guilford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 584,596 people
• By 2030: 616,851 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 678,451 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 734,788 · +25.7%
• By 2075: 862,985 · +47.6%
• By 2100: 948,704 · +62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Black 34% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 6% Italian 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Chinese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guilford

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.8) · D 60.2% · R 38.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 18.4pp · 2024: 21.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.8 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+20.0 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.02%
• Current HPI: 232.0638
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Greensboro-High Point, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+83.4% since first listed

31 events — show timeline

• 2025-04-15 Sold (Public Records) $315,000 Public Records
• 2025-04-02 Pending — Triad MLS
• 2025-01-23 Contingent — DRRAR
• 2025-01-20 Contingent — Triad MLS
• 2025-01-13 Listed $315,000 DRRAR
• 2025-01-10 Listed $315,000 Triad MLS
• 2018-09-12 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records
• 2018-09-12 Sold (MLS) $185,000 AMLSNC
• 2018-09-12 Sold (MLS) $185,000 TMLS
• 2018-09-12 Sold (MLS) $185,000 Triad MLS
• 2018-09-07 Sold (MLS) $185,000 AMLSNC
• 2018-09-07 Sold (MLS) $185,000 TMLS
• 2018-07-30 Pending — TMLS
• 2018-07-30 Pending — Triad MLS
• 2018-06-20 Listed $190,000 AMLSNC
• 2018-06-20 Listed $190,000 TMLS
• 2018-06-15 Listed $190,000 AMLSNC
• 2018-06-15 Listed $190,000 TMLS
• 2018-06-15 Listed $190,000 Triad MLS
• 2017-12-12 Price Changed $154,900 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-12-12 Price Changed $154,900 Triad MLS
• 2017-11-20 Price Changed $159,900 Triad MLS
• 2017-11-06 Price Changed $164,500 Triad MLS
• 2017-08-25 Price Changed $167,500 Triad MLS
• 2017-08-25 Price Changed $175,000 Triad MLS
• 2017-07-28 Price Changed $167,500 Triad MLS
• 2017-07-25 Price Changed $164,900 Triad MLS
• 2006-06-30 Sold (MLS) $171,940 AMLSNC
• 2006-06-30 Sold (MLS) $171,940 TMLS
• 2005-11-14 Listed $171,710 AMLSNC
• 2005-11-14 Listed $171,710 TMLS

Property tax history

+9.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,674 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.