829 Willow Creek Dr · La Porte, TX 77571

$169,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,870 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1981 7,618 sqft lot Est $273k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity for the investor. This property is located in the Creekmont subdivision. This property features 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathroom . This would be one that you could make your own. Located in an established neighborhood with mature trees. It is conveniently located close to major throughfares, Retail centers, Employment centers, Entertainment venues and Schools. Don't miss out on this one.

Key facts

• Major throughfares
• Retail centers
• Conveniently located

Tags

• CREEKMONT SUBDIVISION
• ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD
• MATURE TREES
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED
• MAJOR THROUGHFARES
• RETAIL CENTERS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; 2-car carport; Electric gate
• Security: Electric gate
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Slab foundation; One-story (all main rooms listed on first floor)
• Construction: Built in 1981; Brick and wood siding exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor) — 12x15; Bedroom (first floor) — 11x12; Bedroom (first floor) — 10x12
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace; Washer hookup and electric dryer hookup; Electric cooktop and electric oven
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $198 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $166k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.4% in La Porte — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#360 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• La Porte ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #260 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jennie Reid El (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #621 of 4,322 statewide, top 15%, 414 students, 60% FRL); La Porte H S (math 24% / reading 46%, grade F, #954 of 1,632 statewide, top 59%, 2,069 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 337 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,465 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.03%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $273,020
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
617 Canyon Springs Dr	0.09mi	3/2.5	2,020 (+8%)	4mo	$295,000	$146	77
5513 Rock Springs Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,996 (+7%)	6mo	$319,500	$160	74
5222 Glenvalley Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,921 (+3%)	2mo	$280,000	$146	71
9903 Robin St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,647 (-12%)	1mo	$242,000	$147	61
9826 Carlow Ln	0.62mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,925 (+3%)	1mo	$249,000	$129	58
5418 Rock Springs Dr	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,136 (+14%)	4mo	$293,900	$138	55
9902 Wren St	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,020 (+8%)	1mo	$279,000	$138	53
10006 Wren St	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,647 (-12%)	6mo	$205,000	$124	46
10251 Old Orchard Rd	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,619 (-13%)	2mo	$249,900	$154	41
5121 Creekview Dr	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,100 (+12%)	4mo	$289,000	$138	41
5213 Creekview Dr	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,113 (+13%)	5mo	$240,000	$114	41
1819 Gaucho Cir	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-14%)	4mo	$299,900	$187	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-14,935
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $2,514
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77571

• Home prices YoY: -28.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,125 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$524 /mo · $6,286/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $198

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,874

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
809 Willow Creek Dr La Porte, TX	4.0	2.0	1962	$2,100	$1.07	43d	1	0.07mi
5222 Valley View Dr La Porte, TX	3.0	2.0	1739	$1,970	$1.13	43d	1	0.48mi
10007 Winding Trail Rd La Porte, TX	3.0	2.0	1517	$2,150	$1.42	43d	1	0.74mi
4922 Crestway Dr La Porte, TX	3.0	2.0	1465	$2,155	$1.47	5d	1	0.78mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,000 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $169,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,000 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,000 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-05-22
    listed $169,000 Active
15. 1989-06-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,286 · $524/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,286 · $524/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,501
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$6,286
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,040
• − Management: −$2,040
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable loss: −$93
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$22
• After-tax cash flow: $2,402/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: La Porte ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826190
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 38.65/100
• National rank: #4151
• State rank: #260 of 826 in TX

Livability — La Porte

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #7754

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: La Porte, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 38,543
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 38,543
• Household income: $81,850
• Rent vs Own: 27.9% rent · 72.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1176.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 20% Black 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.81%
• Current HPI: 255.0768
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.81%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $169,000 HARMLS
• 1989-06-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,286 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.