178 Elmgrove Rd · Greece, NY 14626

$199,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,372 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1880 1.00 ac lot $146/sqft · 22% below area Est $255k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful Home with TONS of Updates!! This home sits on a huge 1 acre lot with a Large Barn, Concrete Driveway, and additional space behind the barn. There are 3 Bedrooms and 1.5 Baths with 1st Floor Laundry with Washer and Dryer Included! Gorgeous Living Room with New Electric Fireplace, Luxury Vinyl Flooring, and Tons of Natural Light! Newly Updated Full and Half Bath! Updated Electrical Service with 200A, New Outlets, 30A in the barn, and Back Up Generator hook up available. The Entire Home Inside and Out has had a Fresh Coat of Paint! There is a Picture Perfect Playroom or Office Space with its own Electric Fireplace. Showings begin Thursday April 23rd, 2026 10am. Any Offers to be Presented April 29th, 2026 at 12pm.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• 1st floor laundry
• Large barn

Tags

• 1 ACRE LOT
• LARGE BARN
• CONCRETE DRIVEWAY
• 1ST FLOOR LAUNDRY
• NEW ELECTRIC FIREPLACE
• LUXURY VINYL FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $260 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $197k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.7% in Greece — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#145 in NY, #2,223 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D-, crime D-.
• Greece Central School District (suburban): math 35% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #544 of 590 in NY (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 126 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $200k implies a 144% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $196,901 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.58%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $255,329
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -21.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
170 Elmgrove Rd	0.03mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,364 (-1%)	3mo	$275,000	$202	90
282 Straub Rd	0.33mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,385 (+1%)	5mo	$215,000	$155	74
162 Berkshire Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,425 (+4%)	11mo	$230,000	$161	67
295 Straub Rd	0.32mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,284 (-6%)	4mo	$271,000	$211	64
293 Elmgrove Rd	0.51mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,390 (+1%)	5mo	$271,000	$195	63
309 Saint Andrews Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,410 (+3%)	12mo	$262,000	$186	57
222 W Craig Hill Dr	0.68mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,312 (-4%)	2mo	$242,000	$184	52
139 W Craig Hill Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,575 (+15%)	20mo	$222,000	$141	17

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.5% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-16,817
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $2,613
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14626

• Home prices YoY: -31.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 126
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$425 /mo · $5,105/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $260

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,971

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
254 W Craig Hill Dr Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1042	$2,600	$2.50	2d	1	0.68mi
49 Lianne Dr Rochester, NY	3.0	2.0	1281	$2,650	$2.07	2d	1	1.28mi
598 Bram Hall Dr Rochester, NY	3.0	2.5	1740	$2,750	$1.58	2d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 729-char remark

   Show marketing remark (729 chars)

   Beautiful Home with TONS of Updates!! This home sits on a huge 1 acre lot with a Large Barn, Concrete Driveway, and additional space behind the barn. There are 3 Bedrooms and 1.5 Baths with 1st Floor Laundry with Washer and Dryer Included! Gorgeous Living Room with New Electric Fireplace, Luxury Vinyl Flooring, and Tons of Natural Light! Newly Updated Full and Half Bath! Updated Electrical Service with 200A, New Outlets, 30A in the barn, and Back Up Generator hook up available. The Entire Home Inside and Out has had a Fresh Coat of Paint! There is a Picture Perfect Playroom or Office Space with its own Electric Fireplace. Showings begin Thursday April 23rd, 2026 10am. Any Offers to be Presented April 29th, 2026 at 12pm.

2. 2026-04-21
   listed $199,900 Active 729-char remark

   Show marketing remark (729 chars)

   Beautiful Home with TONS of Updates!! This home sits on a huge 1 acre lot with a Large Barn, Concrete Driveway, and additional space behind the barn. There are 3 Bedrooms and 1.5 Baths with 1st Floor Laundry with Washer and Dryer Included! Gorgeous Living Room with New Electric Fireplace, Luxury Vinyl Flooring, and Tons of Natural Light! Newly Updated Full and Half Bath! Updated Electrical Service with 200A, New Outlets, 30A in the barn, and Back Up Generator hook up available. The Entire Home Inside and Out has had a Fresh Coat of Paint! There is a Picture Perfect Playroom or Office Space with its own Electric Fireplace. Showings begin Thursday April 23rd, 2026 10am. Any Offers to be Presented April 29th, 2026 at 12pm.

3. 2018-12-14
   soldstatus $82,000
4. 2018-12-13
   soldstatus $82,000 Closed Sale or Rented 132-char remark

   Show marketing remark (132 chars)

   Bring your imagination! Lots of potential. Good "bones'. Great 2-story barn. All situated on 1 acre, which could be subdivided.

5. 2018-11-16
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 132-char remark

   Show marketing remark (132 chars)

   Bring your imagination! Lots of potential. Good "bones'. Great 2-story barn. All situated on 1 acre, which could be subdivided.

6. 2018-10-09
   price $99,000 132-char remark

   Show marketing remark (132 chars)

   Bring your imagination! Lots of potential. Good "bones'. Great 2-story barn. All situated on 1 acre, which could be subdivided.

7. 2018-09-17
   price $119,995 132-char remark

   Show marketing remark (132 chars)

   Bring your imagination! Lots of potential. Good "bones'. Great 2-story barn. All situated on 1 acre, which could be subdivided.

8. 2018-08-13
   price $129,995 132-char remark

   Show marketing remark (132 chars)

   Bring your imagination! Lots of potential. Good "bones'. Great 2-story barn. All situated on 1 acre, which could be subdivided.

9. 2018-07-03
   price $139,900 132-char remark

   Show marketing remark (132 chars)

   Bring your imagination! Lots of potential. Good "bones'. Great 2-story barn. All situated on 1 acre, which could be subdivided.

10. 2018-06-18
    listed $149,995 Active 132-char remark

    Show marketing remark (132 chars)

    Bring your imagination! Lots of potential. Good "bones'. Great 2-story barn. All situated on 1 acre, which could be subdivided.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,105 · $425/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,105 · $425/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,606
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$5,105
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,208
• − Management: −$2,208
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $72
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$17
• After-tax cash flow: $3,108/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greece Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3612630
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $52,718
• Composite: 32.26/100
• National rank: #5761
• State rank: #544 of 590 in NY

Livability — Greece

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #145
• US rank: #2223

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime D- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Greece, NY
• County: Monroe County · 674,131 people
• City population: 29,210
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 29,273
• Household income: $78,204
• Rent vs Own: 32.1% rent · 67.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 810.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -113.91%
• Current HPI: 248.9836
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.50%
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+33.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $199,900 UNYREIS
• 2018-12-14 Sold (Public Records) $82,000 Public Records
• 2018-12-13 Sold (MLS) $82,000 UNYREIS
• 2018-11-16 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2018-10-09 Price Changed $99,000 UNYREIS
• 2018-09-17 Price Changed $119,995 UNYREIS
• 2018-08-13 Price Changed $129,995 UNYREIS
• 2018-07-03 Price Changed $139,900 UNYREIS
• 2018-06-18 Listed $149,995 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,105 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.