120 E Dawn Dr · Robinson, TX 76706

$110,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,865 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1976 0.31 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

GREAT INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY in Robinson ISD.

Key facts

• 0.31 acre lot
• Built 1976

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Possession at closing/funding; Listing status: Active; Listing agreement: Exclusive right to sell
• Financial info: Listing terms include Cash and Conventional; No second mortgage indicated
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; No garage, no covered or carport spaces
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; No municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Attached: Yes; Built in 1976
• Construction: Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Lot under 0.5 acre (approximately 0.31 acre); Subdivision: Wiebusch; Directions: turn onto dawn and the property is on the left

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (primary bedroom on main level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: One-level layout; One living area; One dining area; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: No laundry/utility specifics listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $466 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 2.2% in Robinson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#349 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Robinson ISD (rural): math 47% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #179 of 826 in TX (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Robinson El (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 362 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 49% FRL vs 30% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 317 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,837/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($42k/yr) (locally 3883% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.14%
• DSCR: 1.81
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $359,945
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
108 E Santa Anna Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,657 (-11%)	2mo	$139,000	$84	75
112 E Dawn Dr	0.07mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,025 (+9%)	6mo	$222,000	$110	72
121 E Santa Anna Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,637 (-12%)	11mo	$180,000	$110	69
516 Celeste Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,870 (+0%)	6mo	$360,000	$193	63
525 Rio Bonito Dr	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,865 (0%)	10mo	$385,000	$206	62
601 Christina Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,843 (-1%)	4mo	$325,000	$176	61
488 Hawkins Ct	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,789 (-4%)	2mo	$379,000	$212	59
548 Jancy Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	2,002 (+7%)	20mo	$327,700	$164	50
500 Hawkins Ct	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,727 (-7%)	10mo	$350,000	$203	50
301 Tinsley W	0.69mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,952 (+5%)	2mo	$289,000	$148	50
496 Hawkins Ct	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,925 (+3%)	20mo	$449,000	$233	47
517 Rio Bonito Dr	0.57mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,624 (-13%)	21mo	$370,000	$228	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.86% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $9,908
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $39,127
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76706

• Home prices YoY: -29.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 317
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,837 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$363 /mo · $4,358/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $466

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,248

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $528	-5% $497	+0% $466	+5% $434	+10% $403
Rent	-10% $320	-5% $393	+0% $466	+5% $538	+10% $611
Rate	-1.0pp $521	-0.5pp $494	base $466	+0.5pp $437	+1.0pp $408

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3300 Wynmore Dr Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1678	$1,850	$1.10	44d	1	1.07mi
3300 Wynmore Dr Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1678	$1,850	$1.10	21d	1	1.07mi
3743 Vista Cove Dr Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1509	$1,850	$1.23	21d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-07
   remarks 45-char remark
2. 2026-06-07
   listed $110,000 Pending 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,358 · $363/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,358 · $363/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,046
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$4,358
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,764
• − Management: −$1,764
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $4,249
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,020
• After-tax cash flow: $4,567/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Robinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4837410
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $69,096
• Composite: 42.95/100
• National rank: #3113
• State rank: #179 of 826 in TX

Livability — Robinson

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #349
• US rank: #7658

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Robinson, TX
• County: McLennan County · 213,088 people
• City population: 40,668
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,627
• Household income: $41,656
• Rent vs Own: 61.0% rent · 39.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3883.0

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 17% Black 15% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -94.31%
• Current HPI: 230.2557
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.86%
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-06-03 Listed $110,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,358 · +8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.