1922 Vale Dr · Redding, CA 96002

$276,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,105 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1958 7,840 sqft lot Est $290k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home with attached garage featuring an open floor plan filled with natural light and plenty of potential to make it your own. The large backyard offers room to relax, garden, play, or create your ideal outdoor space. Conveniently located and full of opportunity, this home is ready for its next chapter.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Attached garage
• Large backyard

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE BACKYARD
• NATURAL LIGHT
• ATTACHED GARAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage; Boat, oversized, and RV parking/access
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Other utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Raised foundation
• Construction: Brick, stucco, and wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Raised foundation; Built as a residential single family home
• Exterior features: City lot, level; Asphalt road access; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Flooring: Hardwood; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Gas fireplace in the living room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $276k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $23 ($272/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (21.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.3% in Redding — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#106 in CA, #3,726 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Shasta Union High (urban): math 41% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #122 of 517 in CA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Shasta Meadows Elementary (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #621 of 1,571 statewide, top 42%, 336 students, 80% FRL); Parsons Junior High (math 26% / reading 42%, grade F, #192 of 498 statewide, top 39%, 483 students, 84% FRL); Enterprise High (math 33% / reading 61%, grade D-, #389 of 1,170 statewide, top 35%, 1,109 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 16% district-wide (58 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 54% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Shasta Union High average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 286 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $276k implies a 163% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,535 (21.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.35%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $289,510
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2668 Yana Ave	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,128 (+2%)	0mo	$328,723	$291	82
2953 Churn Ct	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,126 (+2%)	7mo	$295,000	$262	78
2986 Yana Ave	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,066 (-4%)	8mo	$297,000	$279	75
2786 Regal Ave	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,100 (-0%)	1mo	$266,000	$242	75
2906 Regal Ave	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,100 (-0%)	2mo	$362,000	$329	74
2006 Vale Dr	0.08mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (-9%)	4mo	$300,000	$298	69
2522 Belladonna St	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,150 (+4%)	0mo	$285,000	$248	60
2796 Kenco Ave	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,258 (+14%)	6mo	$275,000	$219	59
2730 Heather Ln	0.46mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,144 (+4%)	9mo	$210,000	$184	56
1556 Minor St	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,260 (+14%)	3mo	$265,000	$210	51
2631 Alfreda Way	0.67mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,050 (-5%)	1mo	$304,000	$290	51
2855 Irwin Rd	0.56mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,194 (+8%)	1mo	$269,900	$226	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-45,794
• Equity at exit: $41,152

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-48,112
• Equity at exit: $23,863

Cash invested: $77,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96002

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 286
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,165 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,447
• Tax from tax record: −$126 /mo · $1,507/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,137

Max offer price $276,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $179	-5% $101	+0% $23	+5% $-55	+10% $-134
Rent	-10% $-148	-5% $-63	+0% $23	+5% $108	+10% $194
Rate	-1.0pp $162	-0.5pp $93	base $23	+0.5pp $-49	+1.0pp $-122

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,000
• Closing costs: $8,280
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1933 Wheeler St Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1242	$2,000	$1.61	15d	1	0.12mi
2732 Wilson Ave Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,075	$1.66	15d	1	0.84mi
3867 Apollo St Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,845	$1.42	22d	1	1.05mi
2326 Corona St Redding, CA	3.0	1.0	950	$1,695	$1.78	22d	1	1.16mi
3996 Morningsun Dr Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1384	$1,975	$1.43	15d	1	1.18mi
1701 Dana Dr Redding, CA	2.0–3.0	1.5	1070	$1,875	$1.75	15d	1	1.32mi
1729 Marigold Way Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1344	$2,295	$1.71	15d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $276,000 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $276,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $276,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   status $276,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $276,000 Pending 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $276,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $276,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $276,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $276,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-05-27
    listed $276,000 Active
11. 2011-04-08
    soldstatus $105,000
12. 2005-05-20
    soldstatus $200,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,507 · $126/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,098 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: +$591/yr (+$49/mo · 39.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 41 unhealthy d/yr today · 48 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,984
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,460
• − Property taxes: −$1,507
• − Insurance: −$1,380
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,079
• − Management: −$2,079
• − Depreciation: −$8,029
• Taxable loss: −$4,549
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,092
• After-tax cash flow: $1,364/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shasta Union High
• NCES district ID: 0636600
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,080
• Composite: 46.01/100
• National rank: #2532
• State rank: #122 of 517 in CA

Livability — Redding

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #3726

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Redding, CA
• County: Shasta County · 147,641 people
• City population: 112,523
• Metro: Redding, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,783
• Household income: $73,222
• Rent vs Own: 39.8% rent · 60.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1026.0

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 12% Asian 6% Native American 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -248.70%
• Current HPI: 319.713
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.88%
• Metro: Redding, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+38.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $276,000 SAOR
• 2011-04-08 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 2005-05-20 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,507 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.