4200 Belle Park Dr #4200 · Houston, TX 77072

$85,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,664 sqft · Townhouse public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1975 1,845 sqft lot $51/sqft · 35% below area Est $131k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Excellent opportunity in an established community in Houston! This property offers a functional layout with spacious living areas and strong potential for a variety of buyers. Perfect for first time homebuyers, families looking for comfortable living space, buyers wanting to personalize and add value over time, or investors seeking a property with upside potential in a convenient location. The community setting provides low maintenance living while offering easy access to major highways, shopping, dining, and everyday amenities. Whether you are looking for your next home or your next investment opportunity, this property offers flexibility, value, and long term potential.

Key facts

• Built 1975
• Listed 21 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Member of BELLE PARK HOA

Exterior

• Home design: Residential property; Two-story home; Built in 1975
• Construction: Construction materials: Unknown
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 1,845 square feet

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the first floor; one is the primary bedroom)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms and one half bathroom
• Interior features: One fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $228 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Alief ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #717 of 826 in TX (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 204 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,725 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.99%
• DSCR: 2.47
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $130,659
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -34.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4110 Belle Park Dr #4110	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,664 (0%)	2mo	$105,000	$63	96
4252 Belle Park Dr	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,664 (0%)	10mo	$110,000	$66	90
69 E Park West Dr #69	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,664 (0%)	8mo	$185,000	$111	88
3952 Belle Park Dr #3952	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,664 (0%)	13mo	$155,000	$93	84
11735 Alief Clodine Rd #28	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,640 (-1%)	13mo	$165,000	$101	79
11735 Alief Clodine Rd #34	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,716 (+3%)	11mo	$170,000	$99	77
11735 Alief Clodine Rd #18	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,540 (-8%)	9mo	$166,999	$108	72
4166 Belle Park Dr #4166	0.05mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,426 (-14%)	2mo	$105,000	$74	67
4164 Belle Park Dr #4164	0.03mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,426 (-14%)	10mo	$95,000	$67	62
11735 Alief Clodine Rd #40	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,904 (+14%)	15mo	$195,000	$102	56
11938 N Hoa Sen Cir	0.53mi	3/2.5	1,805 (+8%)	12mo	$349,000	$193	51
11930 N Hoa Sen Cir	0.53mi	3/2.5	1,805 (+8%)	12mo	$349,000	$193	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-3,963
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-2,849
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77072

• Home prices YoY: -26.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 204
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,758 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$254 /mo · $3,044/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $228

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,470

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4343 Willow Beach Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1456	$1,695	$1.16	22d	1	0.36mi
11218 Westpark Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1551	$1,763	$1.14	17d	1	0.92mi
11218 Westpark Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1132	$1,461	$1.29	24d	1	0.92mi
11218 Westpark Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1551	$1,763	$1.14	43d	1	0.92mi
14912 Westpark Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1332	$1,349	$1.01	24d	1	0.93mi
11355 Richmond Ave Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	909	$1,834	$2.02	2d	35	0.97mi
11212 Westpark Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1129	$1,955	$1.73	1d	27	0.99mi
3231 Woodland Park Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1057	$1,530	$1.45	43d	1	1.09mi
3225 Woodland Park Dr Unit 3258 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,541	$1.22	43d	1	1.13mi
3225 Woodland Park Dr Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,864	$1.47	10d	1	1.13mi
3225 Woodland Park Dr Unit 3165 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,832	$1.44	3d	1	1.13mi
7407 Riptide Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1538	$1,900	$1.24	4d	1	1.14mi
12655 W Houston Center Blvd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1042	$2,259	$2.17	3d	21	1.15mi
1 FM 2611 Brazoria, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	999	$1,867	$1.87	1d	31	1.24mi
3411 Walnut Bend Ln Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,850	$1.92	2d	13	1.28mi
3289 Walnut Bend Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1249	$1,700	$1.36	43d	1	1.29mi
11805 Meadowglen Ln Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1002	$2,258	$2.25	5d	29	1.33mi
6006 Rogerdale Rd Unit 6039 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1175	$1,431	$1.22	10d	1	1.35mi
6006 Rogerdale Rd Unit 3112 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1175	$1,399	$1.19	3d	1	1.35mi
2909 Hayes Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	973	$1,355	$1.39	3d	21	1.40mi
6700 S Dairy Ashford Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1035	$1,730	$1.67	22d	19	1.45mi
10777 Richmond Ave Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	975	$2,005	$2.06	1d	22	1.45mi
7526 Cook Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,287	$1.00	43d	1	1.46mi
3360 Rogerdale Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1415	$1,796	$1.27	43d	1	1.46mi
2777 Woodland Park Dr Unit 2814 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1133	$1,712	$1.51	43d	1	1.48mi
3085 Walnut Bend Ln #21 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1167	$1,530	$1.31	17d	1	1.48mi
3085 Walnut Bend Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1167	$1,440	$1.23	43d	3	1.48mi
3085 Walnut Bend Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1167	$1,490	$1.28	24d	2	1.48mi
10777 Richmond Ave Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1117	$1,621	$1.45	12d	1	1.49mi
10777 Richmond Ave Unit 10814 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1117	$1,672	$1.50	12d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $85,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $85,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $85,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $85,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $85,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-05-13
   listed $85,000 Active 680-char remark
7. 2004-07-16
   soldstatus
8. 1988-01-02
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,044 · $254/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,044 · $254/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,100
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$3,044
• − Insurance: −$5,544
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,688
• − Management: −$1,688
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $1,902
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$457
• After-tax cash flow: $2,276/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alief ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807830
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $37,775
• Composite: 21.29/100
• National rank: #8391
• State rank: #717 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 57,108
• Household income: $51,070
• Rent vs Own: 54.8% rent · 45.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 3500.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% Asian 24% Black 23% Two or more races 19% White 5% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24% Puerto Rican 2%
• Foreign-born: 52% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 30% English-only · Spanish 40% Vietnamese 16% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -130.12%
• Current HPI: 362.1985
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.05%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $85,000 HARMLS
• 2004-07-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,044 · -1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.