4006 Streambed Trl · Houston, TX 77068

$390,000

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,049 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 137 Days on market

Built 2016 9,273 sqft lot Est $345k · 13% over $69/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• ARV discount +1.6/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Feel right at home in this newly constructed home in the family-friendly subdivision of Cypress Creek Crossing! This beautiful home features stone and brick elevation and spacious rooms. The gourmet kitchen is fit with granite countertops and a corner pantry while the master en-suite features a large tub and double vanity. Only a short commute from 249 and the Grand Parkway. Short distance from the Vintage Park shopping and dining area. This beautiful new home awaits you, call today!

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Versatile game room
• 9,273 sq ft lot

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT FAMILY ROOM
• VERSATILE GAME ROOM
• GENEROUSLY SIZED CLOSETS
• LARGE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($33k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $390k).
• Recommended offer: $343k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pat Reynolds El (math 18% / reading 28%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 836 students, 86% FRL); Edwin M Wells Middle (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,616 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 907 students, 89% FRL); Westfield H S (math 13% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,507 of 1,632 statewide, top 93%, 2,574 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 66% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 117 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.1%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-2.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $109k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($343k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask is 99900% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $343,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.86%
• DSCR: 2.37
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $344,537
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4022 Streambed Trl	0.04mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,792 (-8%)	2mo	$325,000	$116	74
15515 San Milo Dr	0.45mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,056 (+0%)	2mo	$345,000	$113	72
15406 Falling Creek Dr	0.43mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,950 (-3%)	3mo	$315,000	$107	63
4218 Bayglen Ct	0.68mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,042 (-0%)	2mo	$384,786	$126	61
15302 Walters Rd	0.57mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,059 (+0%)	4mo	$215,000	$70	61
3614 Shanemoss Ct	0.45mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,852 (-6%)	2mo	$299,990	$105	58
15727 Misty Hollow Dr	0.74mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,119 (+2%)	1mo	$359,000	$115	56
15518 San Milo Dr	0.46mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,383 (+11%)	2mo	$329,000	$97	54
15007 Walters Rd	0.44mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,730 (-10%)	1mo	$279,900	$103	52
4418 Windmill Run Dr	0.64mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,760 (-10%)	0mo	$332,000	$120	47
4215 False Cypress Ln	0.37mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,596 (-15%)	3mo	$285,000	$110	47
15714 Misty Hollow Dr	0.69mi	5/3.5	3,462 (+14%)	1mo	$399,900	$116	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.14% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $126,055
• Equity at exit: $73,341

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.19×
• Total profit: $348,659
• Equity at exit: $60,401

Cash invested: $109,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77068

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 117
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,352 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax from tax record: −$723 /mo · $8,677/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$69
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,544
• Net cashflow: $2,742

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,881

Max offer price $390,000

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,500
• Closing costs: $11,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4622 Falling Sun Dr Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2485	$2,500	$1.01	43d	1	0.74mi
5135 Westerham Pl Unit 1262307P Houston, TX	5.0	3.5	3358	$17,582	$5.24	22d	1	1.29mi
5415 Olympia Fields Ln Houston, TX	4.0	4.0	4163	$3,500	$0.84	3d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $69 · $828/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $390,000 Active 137 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $390,000 Active 136 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $390,000 Active 135 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $390,000 Active 134 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $390,000 Active 132 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $390,000 Active 131 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $390,000 Active 128 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $390,000 Active 127 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $390,000 Active 126 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $390,000 Active 123 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $390,000 Active 122 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $390,000 Active 121 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $390,000 Active 120 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $390,000 Active 119 DOM
15. 2026-04-30
    status Pending
16. 2026-04-25
    status Pending
17. 2026-01-05
    price $390,000
18. 2026-01-05
    listed $390 Active
19. 2017-05-26
    soldstatus Sold 488-char remark

    Show marketing remark (488 chars)

    Feel right at home in this newly constructed home in the family-friendly subdivision of Cypress Creek Crossing! This beautiful home features stone and brick elevation and spacious rooms. The gourmet kitchen is fit with granite countertops and a corner pantry while the master en-suite features a large tub and double vanity. Only a short commute from 249 and the Grand Parkway. Short distance from the Vintage Park shopping and dining area. This beautiful new home awaits you, call today!

20. 2017-04-11
    status Pending 488-char remark

    Show marketing remark (488 chars)

    Feel right at home in this newly constructed home in the family-friendly subdivision of Cypress Creek Crossing! This beautiful home features stone and brick elevation and spacious rooms. The gourmet kitchen is fit with granite countertops and a corner pantry while the master en-suite features a large tub and double vanity. Only a short commute from 249 and the Grand Parkway. Short distance from the Vintage Park shopping and dining area. This beautiful new home awaits you, call today!

21. 2017-04-06
    price $244,995 488-char remark

    Show marketing remark (488 chars)

    Feel right at home in this newly constructed home in the family-friendly subdivision of Cypress Creek Crossing! This beautiful home features stone and brick elevation and spacious rooms. The gourmet kitchen is fit with granite countertops and a corner pantry while the master en-suite features a large tub and double vanity. Only a short commute from 249 and the Grand Parkway. Short distance from the Vintage Park shopping and dining area. This beautiful new home awaits you, call today!

22. 2017-03-29
    listed $249,995 Active 488-char remark

    Show marketing remark (488 chars)

    Feel right at home in this newly constructed home in the family-friendly subdivision of Cypress Creek Crossing! This beautiful home features stone and brick elevation and spacious rooms. The gourmet kitchen is fit with granite countertops and a corner pantry while the master en-suite features a large tub and double vanity. Only a short commute from 249 and the Grand Parkway. Short distance from the Vintage Park shopping and dining area. This beautiful new home awaits you, call today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,677 · $723/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,677 · $723/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $88,225
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,846
• − Property taxes: −$8,677
• − Insurance: −$2,748
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,058
• − Management: −$7,058
• − HOA: −$828
• − Depreciation: −$11,345
• Taxable income: $28,665
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6,880
• After-tax cash flow: $26,023/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 3,226,434
• Population (ZIP): 12,289

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 35% Black 31% White 23% Two or more races 11% Asian 6% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Scandinavian 2% Romanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 28% Vietnamese 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.14%
• Current HPI: 206.5475
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+56.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $390,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listed $390 HARMLS
• 2017-05-26 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2017-04-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-04-06 Price Changed $244,995 HARMLS
• 2017-03-29 Listed $249,995 HARMLS

Property tax history

+11.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,677 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.