6091 Kellogg Dr · Otsego Lake, MI 49735

$115,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · SingleFamily · 51 Days on market

Built 1987 10,018 sqft lot $117/sqft · at area comps Est $111k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• ARV discount +6.0/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Completely remodeled 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located just minutes from downtown Gaylord. This home features a desirable split floor plan with the primary suite on one side and two additional bedrooms on the other. Recent updates include a new roof, brand new bathrooms, a tiled walk-in shower in the primary suite, new appliances, new flooring, fresh paint, and more. Be sure to check the full list of upgrades in the documents. Renovated inside and out & move-in ready! Conveniently located near I-75, shopping, restaurants, and Otsego Lake. Seller is a licensed real estate agent.

Key facts

• Remodeled
• Tiled walk-in shower
• Split floor plan

Tags

• REMODELED
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• PRIMARY SUITE
• TILED WALK-IN SHOWER
• NEW ROOF
• NEW BATHROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is approximately 0.23 acres (dimensions 80 x 125 x 80 x 125); Paved road access; Zoned R-3

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built prior to or in 2026
• Exterior features: Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Refrigerator; Oven; Range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom located on the main level
• Flooring: Simulated wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Accessible full bath
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); Main bedroom on ground floor
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $298 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $112k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Gaylord Community Schools (rural): math 43% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #123 of 540 in MI (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 206 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Otsego County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Otsego County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $115k implies a 137% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $111,550 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.11%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $111,329
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: 3.30%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
510 Edelweiss Trl	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,000 (+2%)	9mo	$60,000	$60	75
434 Trillium Trl	0.21mi	2/1.0 (-1)	980 (0%)	12mo	$90,000	$92	71
976 Lakeview Ave	0.34mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,040 (+6%)	2mo	$415,000	$399	64
654 Sharon St	0.74mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,064 (+9%)	14mo	$135,000	$127	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $335
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $24,657
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49735

• Home prices YoY: -27.8%
• Active inventory: 206
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,297 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $909/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $298

Break-even live

Break-even rent $920

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $115,000 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $115,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $115,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 32 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    price $115,000 587-char remark
17. 2026-04-28
    listed $129,000 Active 587-char remark
18. 2014-12-23
    soldstatus $48,500
19. 2014-07-17
    listed $34,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $909 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,340 · $112/mo
• Expected delta: +$431/yr (+$36/mo · 47.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,569
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$909
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,245
• − Management: −$1,245
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $1,806
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$434
• After-tax cash flow: $3,145/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gaylord Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2615730
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $48,682
• Composite: 40.97/100
• National rank: #3597
• State rank: #123 of 540 in MI

Livability — Otsego Lake

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 20,678

Population outlook (Otsego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,175 people
• By 2030: 23,836 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 22,718 · -6.0%
• By 2050: 21,411 · -11.4%
• By 2075: 18,864 · -22.0%
• By 2100: 15,011 · -37.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Lithuanian 6% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Otsego

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.3) · D 31.6% · R 67.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.5pp toward R · 2008: -8.9pp · 2024: -35.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.3 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+37.6 2012: R+19.7 2008: R+8.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -94.52%
• Current HPI: 245.8639
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+229.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $115,000 WWMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $129,000 WWMLS
• 2014-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $48,500 Public Records
• 2014-07-17 Listed $34,900 WWMLS

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $909 · +27.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.