500 Road 5822 · Dayton, TX 77327

$168,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,193 sqft · Land · 199 Days on market

Built 2025 10,454 sqft lot $141/sqft · at area comps Est $174k · at est. $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming home boasts spacious living areas, and a private fenced in backyard oasis. With no backyard Neighbors.The open floor plan is ideal for entertaining, while the kitchen features stainless steel appliances and ample storage space. Relax in the cozy master suite. Enjoy the convenience of nearby amenities and easy access to transportation. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity to own a beautiful home in a sought-after location.

Key facts

• Ample storage space
• Open floor plan
• 0.24 acre lot

Tags

• PRIVATE FENCED BACKYARD
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• AMPLE STORAGE SPACE
• EASY ACCESS TO TRANSPORTATION
• SOUGHT-AFTER LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $168k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $157 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (10.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $148k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.2% in Dayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,066 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 199 days — a 12% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $148,280 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 199 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.00%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $173,568
• List price: $168,500
• Delta: -2.92%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-15,809
• Equity at exit: $25,124

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $5,328
• Equity at exit: $14,569

Cash invested: $47,180 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,510 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$884
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $858/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,311

Max offer price $168,500

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,125
• Closing costs: $5,055
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1192 Road 57071 Cleveland, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$950	$0.95	1d	1	0.99mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $168,500 Active 199 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $168,500 Active 198 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $168,500 Active 197 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $168,500 Active 196 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $168,500 Active 194 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $168,500 Active 190 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $168,500 Active 189 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $168,500 Active 188 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $168,500 Active 185 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $168,500 Active 184 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $168,500 Active 183 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $168,500 Active 182 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $168,500 Active 181 DOM
14. 2026-05-13
    price $168,500 447-char remark

    Show marketing remark (447 chars)

    This charming home boasts spacious living areas, and a private fenced in backyard oasis. With no backyard Neighbors.The open floor plan is ideal for entertaining, while the kitchen features stainless steel appliances and ample storage space. Relax in the cozy master suite. Enjoy the convenience of nearby amenities and easy access to transportation. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity to own a beautiful home in a sought-after location.

15. 2026-04-25
    price $169,000 447-char remark

    Show marketing remark (447 chars)

    This charming home boasts spacious living areas, and a private fenced in backyard oasis. With no backyard Neighbors.The open floor plan is ideal for entertaining, while the kitchen features stainless steel appliances and ample storage space. Relax in the cozy master suite. Enjoy the convenience of nearby amenities and easy access to transportation. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity to own a beautiful home in a sought-after location.

16. 2026-02-09
    price $172,000 447-char remark

    Show marketing remark (447 chars)

    This charming home boasts spacious living areas, and a private fenced in backyard oasis. With no backyard Neighbors.The open floor plan is ideal for entertaining, while the kitchen features stainless steel appliances and ample storage space. Relax in the cozy master suite. Enjoy the convenience of nearby amenities and easy access to transportation. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity to own a beautiful home in a sought-after location.

17. 2025-12-01
    listed $175,000 Active 447-char remark

    Show marketing remark (447 chars)

    This charming home boasts spacious living areas, and a private fenced in backyard oasis. With no backyard Neighbors.The open floor plan is ideal for entertaining, while the kitchen features stainless steel appliances and ample storage space. Relax in the cozy master suite. Enjoy the convenience of nearby amenities and easy access to transportation. Don't miss out on this fantastic opportunity to own a beautiful home in a sought-after location.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $858 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,084 · $257/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,226/yr (+$186/mo · 259.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,115
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,439
• − Property taxes: −$858
• − Insurance: −$842
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,449
• − Management: −$1,449
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$4,902
• Taxable loss: −$944
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$226
• After-tax cash flow: $2,114/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1066
• US rank: #18940

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $168,500 HARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $169,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $172,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-01 Listed $175,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

-3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $858 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.