447 Hollywood Heights Rd · Caseyville, IL 62232

$127,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1956 Est $124k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.1/30.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• ARV discount +6.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nice home on 1.08 acres. Some updated flooring, updated air conditioning system, front porch, & amp; nice carport. Home is in the process of being cleaned out will be sold as is no occupancy inspection provided. Fridge, stove, washer, & amp; dryer included.

Key facts

• Front porch
• Carport
• Included stove

Tags

• UPDATED FLOORING
• FRONT PORCH
• CARPORT
• INCLUDED FRIDGE
• INCLUDED STOVE
• INCLUDED WASHER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $128k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $230 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $128k).
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.3% in Caseyville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#241 in IL, #4,389 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Collinsville CUSD 10 (suburban): math 14% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #465 of 620 in IL (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 783 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $884 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Clair County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.72%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $123,840
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
251 Center Dr	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,008 (+5%)	15mo	$130,000	$129	56
322 Hollywood Heights Rd	0.32mi	3/1.0	1,054 (+10%)	17mo	$154,900	$147	47
105 Brookside Dr	0.70mi	2/1.0 (-1)	954 (-1%)	14mo	$65,000	$68	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-6,082
• Equity at exit: $19,070

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $13,461
• Equity at exit: $11,058

Cash invested: $35,812 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62232

• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,297 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$671
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $839/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $230

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,005

Max offer price $127,900

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,975
• Closing costs: $3,837
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
626 Greenwood Pl Unit 6 Collinsville, IL	2.0	1.5	950	$950	$1.00	2d	1	1.22mi
455 S 6th St Caseyville, IL	4.0	1.0	925	$1,680	$1.82	1d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $127,900 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $127,900 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $127,900 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $127,900 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $127,900 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $127,900 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $127,900 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $127,900 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 257-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $127,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $839 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,871 · $156/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,032/yr (+$86/mo · 123.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,561
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,164
• − Property taxes: −$839
• − Insurance: −$640
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,245
• − Management: −$1,245
• − Depreciation: −$3,721
• Taxable income: $707
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$170
• After-tax cash flow: $2,596/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collinsville CUSD 10
• NCES district ID: 1710650
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $52,504
• Composite: 15.65/100
• National rank: #9288
• State rank: #465 of 620 in IL

Livability — Caseyville

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #241
• US rank: #4389

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Caseyville, IL
• City population: 7,480
• Population (ZIP): 7,480

Population outlook (St. Clair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 250,366 people
• By 2030: 240,511 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 217,391 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 192,699 · -23.0%
• By 2075: 140,637 · -43.8%
• By 2100: 100,499 · -59.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 18% Black 9% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Clair

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+7.9) · D 53.0% · R 45.1% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: 22.4pp · 2024: 7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+7.9 2020: D+8.7 2016: D+5.6 2012: D+14.5 2008: D+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.21%
• Current HPI: 124.0291
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $127,900 FSBO.com

Property tax history

-3.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $839 · -4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.