7102 San Bartolo St #11 · Carlsbad, CA 92011

$494,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 49 Days on market

Built 1972 Good condition $343/sqft · 30% above area Est $381k · 30% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.3/30.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Impeccably remodeled, upgraded home in Carlsbad’s highly sought-after Lakeshore Gardens 55+ gated community! Ideally located just one block from Coast Highway, this stunning 2-bedroom, 2-bath residence showcases beautiful, modern finishes throughout. New heating unit with new enclosed return air system. Fully renovated kitchen with new quartz countertops, cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, center island, pendant lighting and a striking blue tile backsplash! Custom walk-in pantry with unique bi-fold door. New upgraded Mohawk water resistent wood plank laminate flooring throughout. Main bathroom is exquisite with new flooring, toilet, vanity, fixtures, a glass shower enclosure and custom walk-in closet! A new tiled upgraded bathtub and shower combination in the second bathroom with a new vanity and fixtures. Additional improvements include new dual-pane windows throughout, recessed lighting and a high-end Touchstone smart electric fireplace in the living room with LED varied lighting, wi-fi enabled, smart home ready with a heater blower, creating a warm and inviting living space. Ceiling fans throughout! Roof has been recoated. New free standing shed! Conveniently situated near the community’s owner-access gate for easy vehicle entry, the home also offers direct pedestrian access to nearby shopping, dining, and Poinsettia Lane—providing a straight path toward the beach or taking your pet for a stroll! Lakeshore Gardens is one of Carlsbad’s most sought-after 55+ communities offering resort-style amenities including a clubhouse, heated pool, spa, fitness center, and beautifully landscaped walking paths. The upper level of the clubhouse contains meeting rooms, card room with fireplace, and a beautiful balcony to enjoy lake views. The lower level offers a well stocked library, recreation room with a stage and commercial grade kitchen! Residents enjoy the perfect blend of comfort, coastal charm, and active 55+ community living!

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 1972

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $494k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $365 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $478k (3.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $478k (3.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 2.1% in Carlsbad — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#67 in CA, #2,526 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living F.
• Carlsbad Unified (urban): math 68% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #87 of 1,400 in CA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 96 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($159k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.5% rent growth), your $138k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($479k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $494k implies a 349% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $478,345 (3.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.17%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $380,537
• List price: $494,000
• Delta: 29.82%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7140 Santa Rosa St	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	6mo	$191,000	$133	93
7018 San Carlos St #60	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	6mo	$392,000	$272	90
7106 Santa Cruz #56	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,464 (+2%)	9mo	$390,000	$266	88
7217 San Luis St #173	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	10mo	$280,000	$194	87
7024 San Bartolo Unit 19 A	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,544 (+7%)	2mo	$425,000	$275	81
7203 San Luis St #166	0.07mi	2/2.5	1,536 (+7%)	9mo	$375,000	$244	76
7318 San Luis St	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	9mo	$285,000	$198	75
7304 Santa Barbara St #325	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,512 (+5%)	9mo	$481,000	$318	74
7311 San Luis St #237	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,359 (-6%)	1mo	$236,550	$174	68
7224 San Benito St	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,600 (+11%)	9mo	$400,000	$250	68
7243 San Luis St #257	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	2mo	$120,000	$96	66
7313 San Luis St #236	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,548 (+8%)	5mo	$450,000	$291	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.75% appreciation · 3.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $53,520
• Equity at exit: $188,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $203,757
• Equity at exit: $265,918

Cash invested: $138,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92011

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,783 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,591
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$618 /mo · $7,410/yr
• Insurance: −$206
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,005
• Net cashflow: $365

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,321

Max offer price $494,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $123,500
• Closing costs: $14,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6923 Whitecap Dr Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.0	1246	$5,250	$4.21	43d	1	0.47mi
820 Windcrest Dr Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.0	1404	$5,581	$3.98	18d	1	0.65mi
6938 Seascape Dr Carlsbad, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	810	$3,775	$4.66	3d	9	0.66mi
6790 Embarcadero Ln Carlsbad, CA	1.0–2.0	2.0–2.5	2104	$5,750	$2.73	5d	1	0.72mi
6910 Peachtree Rd Unit 1546353P Carlsbad, CA	3.0	2.0	1399	$6,129	$4.38	16d	1	0.76mi
6811 Alderwood Dr Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1292	$3,850	$2.98	43d	1	0.86mi
916 Caminito Estrada Unit B Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1188	$3,650	$3.07	43d	1	0.98mi
902 Caminito Madrigal Unit B Carlsbad, CA	2.0	1.0	897	$3,200	$3.57	10d	1	1.02mi
6675 Paseo del Norte Unit B Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	959	$4,300	$4.48	43d	1	1.02mi
6675 Paseo del Norte Unit A Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	959	$3,850	$4.01	5d	1	1.02mi
6677 Paseo Del Norte Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	959	$4,500	$4.69	43d	1	1.03mi
6677 Paseo del Norte Unit B Carlsbad, CA	2.0	1.0	959	$3,950	$4.12	43d	1	1.03mi
908 Caminito Madrigal Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	897	$4,500	$5.02	43d	1	1.07mi
908 Caminito Madrigal Unit D Carlsbad, CA	2.0	1.5	897	$4,500	$5.02	43d	1	1.09mi
925 Wind Drift Dr Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.5	1110	$3,895	$3.51	43d	1	1.15mi
6555 Sea Gate Rd Carlsbad, CA	2.0	2.0	1114	$4,095	$3.67	1d	3	1.18mi
1967 N Vulcan Ave Encinitas, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	929	$5,359	$5.77	1d	7	1.27mi
1812 Parliament Rd Encinitas, CA	2.0	2.0	1467	$11,200	$7.63	1d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $494,000 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $494,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $494,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $494,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $494,000 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $494,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $494,000 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $494,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $494,000 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $494,000 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $494,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $494,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $494,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $494,000 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-04-30
    listed $494,000 Active 1982-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1982 chars)

    Impeccably remodeled, upgraded home in Carlsbad’s highly sought-after Lakeshore Gardens 55+ gated community! Ideally located just one block from Coast Highway, this stunning 2-bedroom, 2-bath residence showcases beautiful, modern finishes throughout. New heating unit with new enclosed return air system. Fully renovated kitchen with new quartz countertops, cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, center island, pendant lighting and a striking blue tile backsplash! Custom walk-in pantry with unique bi-fold door. New upgraded Mohawk water resistent wood plank laminate flooring throughout. Main bathroom is exquisite with new flooring, toilet, vanity, fixtures, a glass shower enclosure and custom walk-in closet! A new tiled upgraded bathtub and shower combination in the second bathroom with a new vanity and fixtures. Additional improvements include new dual-pane windows throughout, recessed lighting and a high-end Touchstone smart electric fireplace in the living room with LED varied lighting, wi-fi enabled, smart home ready with a heater blower, creating a warm and inviting living space. Ceiling fans throughout! Roof has been recoated. New free standing shed! Conveniently situated near the community’s owner-access gate for easy vehicle entry, the home also offers direct pedestrian access to nearby shopping, dining, and Poinsettia Lane—providing a straight path toward the beach or taking your pet for a stroll! Lakeshore Gardens is one of Carlsbad’s most sought-after 55+ communities offering resort-style amenities including a clubhouse, heated pool, spa, fitness center, and beautifully landscaped walking paths. The upper level of the clubhouse contains meeting rooms, card room with fireplace, and a beautiful balcony to enjoy lake views. The lower level offers a well stocked library, recreation room with a stage and commercial grade kitchen! Residents enjoy the perfect blend of comfort, coastal charm, and active 55+ community living!

16. 2025-08-29
    soldstatus $110,000 Closed 853-char remark

    Show marketing remark (853 chars)

    Affordable home in Carlsbad’s highly desirable Lakeshore Gardens community offering the perfect blend of comfort, coastal charm, and active 55+ community living! A two bedroom, two bath residence lovingly lived in. Space rent is $2,625 per month. Open kitchen to dining area and family area. Unique bar/serving area facing family/den section. Some TLC will make this a great home! Lakeshore Gardens offers lush landscaping, greenbelts, mature trees and various lakes throughout giving your environment a "park-like" feel. Residents enjoy the convenience of the pool, spa and workout room. The upper level of the clubhouse contains offices, lobby, card room with fireplace, billiard room and a beautiful balcony to enjoy lake views. The lower level offers a well stocked library, recreation room with a stage and commercial grade kitchen!

17. 2025-08-04
    status Pending 853-char remark

    Show marketing remark (853 chars)

    Affordable home in Carlsbad’s highly desirable Lakeshore Gardens community offering the perfect blend of comfort, coastal charm, and active 55+ community living! A two bedroom, two bath residence lovingly lived in. Space rent is $2,625 per month. Open kitchen to dining area and family area. Unique bar/serving area facing family/den section. Some TLC will make this a great home! Lakeshore Gardens offers lush landscaping, greenbelts, mature trees and various lakes throughout giving your environment a "park-like" feel. Residents enjoy the convenience of the pool, spa and workout room. The upper level of the clubhouse contains offices, lobby, card room with fireplace, billiard room and a beautiful balcony to enjoy lake views. The lower level offers a well stocked library, recreation room with a stage and commercial grade kitchen!

18. 2025-07-10
    listed $175,000 Active 853-char remark

    Show marketing remark (853 chars)

    Affordable home in Carlsbad’s highly desirable Lakeshore Gardens community offering the perfect blend of comfort, coastal charm, and active 55+ community living! A two bedroom, two bath residence lovingly lived in. Space rent is $2,625 per month. Open kitchen to dining area and family area. Unique bar/serving area facing family/den section. Some TLC will make this a great home! Lakeshore Gardens offers lush landscaping, greenbelts, mature trees and various lakes throughout giving your environment a "park-like" feel. Residents enjoy the convenience of the pool, spa and workout room. The upper level of the clubhouse contains offices, lobby, card room with fireplace, billiard room and a beautiful balcony to enjoy lake views. The lower level offers a well stocked library, recreation room with a stage and commercial grade kitchen!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥82°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $57,401
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,672
• − Property taxes: −$7,410
• − Insurance: −$2,470
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,592
• − Management: −$4,592
• − Depreciation: −$14,371
• Taxable loss: −$3,705
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$889
• After-tax cash flow: $5,269/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It has been fully renovated with new kitchen and bathroom fixtures, new flooring, and a fresh paint job. The exterior is in good condition with a well-maintained yard. The home is move-in ready and would be a great investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace outdoor lighting — Improves safety and enhances curb appeal
• Both Install smart home features — Enhances convenience and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace outdoor lighting — Improves safety and enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carlsbad Unified
• NCES district ID: 0607500
• Math proficiency: 68% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $81,200
• Composite: 65.11/100
• National rank: #1068
• State rank: #87 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Carlsbad

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #67
• US rank: #2526

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carlsbad, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 114,373
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 23,190
• Household income: $159,235
• Rent vs Own: 36.0% rent · 64.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 714.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 4% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.75%
• Current HPI: 399.8502
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.54%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+182.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Listed $494,000 SDMLS
• 2025-08-29 Sold (MLS) $110,000 SDMLS
• 2025-08-04 Pending — SDMLS
• 2025-07-10 Listed $175,000 SDMLS