4500 Elam Rd · Bemiss, GA 31605

$65,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1985 1.47 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

1.47 acre lot just off Cat Creek Road. Great potential for renovation. Located on a culdesac. Short drive to MAFB. Property being sold as is. * The structure is not habitable at current. . Not suitable for FHA, VA, USDA in current condition. Seller finance is not an option.

Key facts

• Short drive to mafb
• 1.47 acre lot
• Culdesac

Tags

• 1.47 ACRE LOT
• CULDESAC
• SHORT DRIVE TO MAFB

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax amount: $870.87

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewage
• Home design: Single-family residence; House; 1 story
• Exterior features: Located on a cul-de-sac; Approximately 1.47-acre lot; R-1 zoning

Interior

• Bedrooms: Not specified
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: One-level living

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $943 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.7% vs local median 4.7% in Bemiss — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lowndes County (rural): math 59% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #8 of 174 in GA (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 228 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 896 units permitted in Lowndes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lowndes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.1% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $64,025 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 62.17%
• DSCR: 3.77
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $255,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4970 Patton Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,421 (-5%)	2mo	$242,500	$171	61
4686 Custer Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+4%)	4mo	$250,000	$160	57
4776 Stonewall Cir	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,290 (-14%)	0mo	$234,900	$182	49
4750 Stonewall Cir	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,408 (-6%)	19mo	$220,000	$156	47
4934 Grant Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,375 (-8%)	13mo	$238,900	$174	46
4723 Custer Dr	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,345 (-10%)	4mo	$230,000	$171	45
4958 Patton Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,419 (-5%)	22mo	$229,900	$162	42
4788 Stonewall Cir	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,310 (-13%)	14mo	$238,900	$182	40
4963 Patton Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,281 (-15%)	13mo	$218,000	$170	35
4675 Stonewall Cir	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,346 (-10%)	19mo	$225,000	$167	30
4933 Patton Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-13%)	18mo	$220,000	$169	30
4892 Grant Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,703 (+14%)	22mo	$239,900	$141	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 63.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.93×
• Total profit: $53,260
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 68.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.68×
• Total profit: $139,723
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31605

• Home prices YoY: -11.5%
• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 228
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,751 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $871/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $943

Break-even live

Break-even rent $558

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $980	-5% $961	+0% $943	+5% $924	+10% $906
Rent	-10% $805	-5% $874	+0% $943	+5% $1,012	+10% $1,081
Rate	-1.0pp $976	-0.5pp $959	base $943	+0.5pp $926	+1.0pp $909

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4782 Stonewall Cir Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1349	$1,550	$1.15	44d	1	0.59mi
5124 Northridge Rd S Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,700	$1.17	21d	1	1.23mi
4141 Pebble Creek Dr Valdosta, GA	3.0	2.0	1189	$1,295	$1.09	21d	1	1.33mi
4120 Clay Dr Valdosta, GA	4.0	2.0	1806	$2,000	$1.11	21d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $65,000 Pending 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $65,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    remarks 274-char remark
13. 2026-06-02
    listed $99,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $871 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $871 · $73/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,013
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$871
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,681
• − Management: −$1,681
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $10,923
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,622
• After-tax cash flow: $8,692/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lowndes County
• NCES district ID: 1303390
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,221
• Composite: 47.21/100
• National rank: #2317
• State rank: #8 of 174 in GA

Livability — Bemiss

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Lowndes County · 107,801 people
• City population: 24,280
• Metro: Valdosta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 24,829
• Household income: $79,156
• Rent vs Own: 33.9% rent · 66.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 642.0

Population outlook (Lowndes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 120,348 people
• By 2030: 123,469 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 128,482 · +6.8%
• By 2050: 131,907 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 139,080 · +15.6%
• By 2100: 133,649 · +11.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 27% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lowndes

• 2024 margin: R (+18.0) · D 40.8% · R 58.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -9.4pp · 2024: -18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.0 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+18.2 2012: R+10.5 2008: R+9.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.74%
• Current HPI: 189.8471
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.07%
• Metro: Valdosta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+62.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $99,000 SGMLS
• 2003-08-21 Sold (Public Records) $61,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $871 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.