2412 Merlin St · Dallas, TX 75215

$285,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,832 sqft · Land · 4 Days on market

Built 2025

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful contemporary duplex in the newly developed community of Jefferies-Meyers right in the heart of Sunny South Dallas! This gorgeous home features an open concept layout and tons of builder upgrades that are sure to please the most discerning of buyers. The kitchen has waterfall granite countertops, stainless steel appliance and a large kitchen island. Throughout the home you have vinyl wood flooring with ceramic tile in the bathrooms. If having an outdoor escape is important to you this home also comes with a private balcony perfect for enjoying the Dallas skyline. Conveniently located near Fair Park with easy access to multiple major highways - I-30, I-75, I-35S, Dallas North Tollwa

Key facts

• Large kitchen island
• Vinyl wood flooring
• Ceramic tile

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• WATERFALL GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCE
• LARGE KITCHEN ISLAND
• VINYL WOOD FLOORING
• CERAMIC TILE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $489 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $285k).
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 2.3% in Dallas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#24 in TX, #1,380 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Dallas ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #559 of 826 in TX (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Paul L Dunbar Learning Center (math 27% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 531 students, 95% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.2%/yr); 248 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,873/mo this rent would consume 76% of the median local household income ($46k/yr) (locally 1464% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.8% local appreciation)).
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.8% appreciation + 7.2% rent growth), your $80k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $285,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.36%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.79% appreciation · 7.19% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $46,104
• Equity at exit: $94,180

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.34×
• Total profit: $186,385
• Equity at exit: $122,784

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75215

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Rents YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 248
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,873 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$167 /mo · $2,004/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$603
• Net cashflow: $489

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,254

Max offer price $285,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2406 Merlin St Dallas, TX	3.0	2.5	2004	$2,500	$1.25	7d	1	0.04mi
2408 Meyers St Unit 204 Dallas, TX	2.0	1.0	2375	$770	$0.32	2d	1	0.14mi
3230 Elihu St #5 Dallas, TX	2.0	3.5	1400	$2,700	$1.93	43d	1	0.46mi
3230 Elihu St #2 Dallas, TX	2.0	3.5	1400	$2,300	$1.64	43d	1	0.46mi
2900 Canton St Dallas, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1029	$2,525	$2.45	1d	14	0.64mi
3900 Commerce St Dallas, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	1217	$3,925	$3.22	6d	10	0.69mi
1874 Beaumont St Dallas, TX	4.0	5.0	2578	$4,900	$1.90	43d	1	0.70mi
835 S Good Latimer Expy Dallas, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	1198	$2,680	$2.24	2d	26	0.71mi
3131 Main St Dallas, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	989	$3,400	$3.44	1d	28	0.74mi
1110 S Cesar Chavez Blvd Dallas, TX	2.0	1.0–2.5	946	$1,977	$2.09	1d	42	0.77mi
2507 Birmingham Ave Dallas, TX	3.0	2.5	1516	$2,500	$1.65	24d	1	0.78mi
1900 S Ervay St Dallas, TX	2.0	3.0	1302	$3,700	$2.84	43d	1	0.80mi
2210 Canton St Dallas, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1138	$2,349	$2.06	1d	55	0.86mi
3308 Birmingham Ave Unit 7 Dallas, TX	2.0	2.5	1287	$2,125	$1.65	14d	1	0.87mi
3308 Birmingham Ave Unit 1 Dallas, TX	2.0	2.5	1451	$2,275	$1.57	24d	1	0.87mi
3308 Birmingham Ave Unit 03 Dallas, TX	2.0	2.5	1451	$2,275	$1.57	43d	1	0.87mi
3308 Birmingham Ave Unit 6 Dallas, TX	2.0	2.5	1341	$2,175	$1.62	16d	1	0.87mi
3308 Birmingham Ave Unit 11 Dallas, TX	2.0	2.5	1505	$2,375	$1.58	43d	1	0.87mi
2901 Indiana Blvd Dallas, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	930	$2,405	$2.58	1d	21	0.88mi
1512 Seegar St Unit 1508 Dallas, TX	3.0	3.5	2003	$3,250	$1.62	43d	1	0.88mi
1011 S Pearl Expy Dallas, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1035	$2,288	$2.21	13d	1	0.89mi
1508 Seegar St Dallas, TX	3.0	3.5	1966	$3,124	$1.59	14d	9	0.89mi
1805 Browder St #103 Dallas, TX	3.0	3.5	2358	$8,000	$3.39	43d	1	0.97mi
1805 Browder St Unit 1019612P Dallas, TX	3.0	3.5	2357	$6,830	$2.90	6d	1	0.97mi
3502 Edgewood St Dallas, TX	4.0	2.0	1866	$2,523	$1.35	1d	1	0.98mi
2531 Elm St Dallas, TX	3.0	3.0	1732	$4,616	$2.67	18d	1	0.99mi
2531 Elm St Dallas, TX	3.0	3.0	1732	$4,616	$2.67	21d	1	0.99mi
2525 Elm St Dallas, TX	3.0	1.0–3.0	1191	$4,096	$3.44	1d	36	1.00mi
1552 Cosette Dr Dallas, TX	2.0	2.5	2344	$3,355	$1.43	16d	1	1.00mi
2847 Metropolitan Ave Dallas, TX	3.0	1.0	1344	$2,050	$1.53	21d	1	1.01mi
2121 Albany St Dallas, TX	2.0	2.5	1997	$4,150	$2.08	24d	1	1.03mi
2121 Albany St Dallas, TX	2.0	2.5	2414	$4,200	$1.74	43d	1	1.03mi
3413 Wendelkin St Dallas, TX	3.0	2.5	1724	$2,650	$1.54	1d	1	1.07mi
1100 Corinth St Dallas, TX	2.0–3.0	2.5–3.5	1572	$3,595	$2.29	43d	10	1.09mi
3521 S Harwood St Dallas, TX	3.0	2.5	1750	$2,700	$1.54	2d	1	1.10mi
1245 Gano St #602 Dallas, TX	2.0	2.5	2465	$2,800	$1.14	21d	1	1.14mi
2013 Jackson St Dallas, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	952	$3,266	$3.43	1d	69	1.19mi
4536 Birch St Dallas, TX	4.0	2.0	1259	$2,200	$1.75	43d	1	1.21mi
317 Alcalde St Unit 1018276P Dallas, TX	4.0	2.5	2292	$22,489	$9.81	24d	1	1.22mi
1514 Washington St Unit 105 Dallas, TX	2.0	2.5	1404	$2,950	$2.10	7d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-07-22
   status Pending
2. 2025-07-18
   listed $285,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,004 · $167/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,216 · $435/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,211/yr (+$268/mo · 160.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,473
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$2,004
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,758
• − Management: −$2,758
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable income: $1,273
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$305
• After-tax cash flow: $5,564/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dallas ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816230
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,881
• Composite: 28.41/100
• National rank: #6763
• State rank: #559 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dallas

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #24
• US rank: #1380

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dallas, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,612,404 people
• City population: 1,168,437
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,895
• Household income: $45,557
• Rent vs Own: 61.8% rent · 38.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1464.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% Hispanic / Latino 25% White 11% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 26%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.79%
• Current HPI: 224.2955
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.19%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-22 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-07-18 Listed $285,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+20.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,004 · +59.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.