444 O'neal Rd · Oak Grove, LA 71263

$115,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,624 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 91 Days on market

Built 1961 1.17 ac lot $71/sqft · 11% below area Est $123k · 7% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy the best of both worlds with this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home nestled on 1 full acre in the peaceful Terry community. Step inside to find two living areas, including a comfortable living room and a separate den, giving everyone room to spread out, relax, or entertain. The kitchen features a large eat-at bar, perfect for quick meals, morning coffee, or gathering with family and friends. The home offers warm, inviting spaces with true country homestead vibes, making it easy to settle in and feel right at home. A large utility room provides extra storage and workspace to keep everything organized and functional. Outside, you’ll love the open space that comes with a full acre: ideal for gardening, outdoor projects, pets, or simply enjoying the quiet rural surroundings. It also has a paved driveway leading to a detached carport with patio. If you’ve been dreaming of a little land, a lot of comfort, and a location that keeps you close to town without sacrificing privacy, this one checks all the boxes!

Key facts

• Detached carport
• Paved driveway
• Two living areas

Tags

• TWO LIVING AREAS
• LARGE EAT-AT BAR
• LARGE UTILITY ROOM
• FULL ACRE
• PAVED DRIVEWAY
• DETACHED CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $189 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (2.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $105k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#224 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• West Carroll Parish (rural): math 25% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #46 of 98 in LA (top 47%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• West Carroll County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 63% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,650 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.05%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $123,013
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: -6.51%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-6,624
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $9,579
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71263

• Home prices YoY: -5.4%
• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,122 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $549/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $189

Break-even live

Break-even rent $882

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 1032-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1032 chars)

   Enjoy the best of both worlds with this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home nestled on 1 full acre in the peaceful Terry community. Step inside to find two living areas, including a comfortable living room and a separate den, giving everyone room to spread out, relax, or entertain. The kitchen features a large eat-at bar, perfect for quick meals, morning coffee, or gathering with family and friends. The home offers warm, inviting spaces with true country homestead vibes, making it easy to settle in and feel right at home. A large utility room provides extra storage and workspace to keep everything organized and functional. Outside, you’ll love the open space that comes with a full acre: ideal for gardening, outdoor projects, pets, or simply enjoying the quiet rural surroundings. It also has a paved driveway leading to a detached carport with patio. If you’ve been dreaming of a little land, a lot of comfort, and a location that keeps you close to town without sacrificing privacy, this one checks all the boxes!

2. 2026-04-24
   price $115,000 1032-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1032 chars)

   Enjoy the best of both worlds with this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home nestled on 1 full acre in the peaceful Terry community. Step inside to find two living areas, including a comfortable living room and a separate den, giving everyone room to spread out, relax, or entertain. The kitchen features a large eat-at bar, perfect for quick meals, morning coffee, or gathering with family and friends. The home offers warm, inviting spaces with true country homestead vibes, making it easy to settle in and feel right at home. A large utility room provides extra storage and workspace to keep everything organized and functional. Outside, you’ll love the open space that comes with a full acre: ideal for gardening, outdoor projects, pets, or simply enjoying the quiet rural surroundings. It also has a paved driveway leading to a detached carport with patio. If you’ve been dreaming of a little land, a lot of comfort, and a location that keeps you close to town without sacrificing privacy, this one checks all the boxes!

3. 2026-02-03
   listed $125,000 Active 1032-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1032 chars)

   Enjoy the best of both worlds with this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home nestled on 1 full acre in the peaceful Terry community. Step inside to find two living areas, including a comfortable living room and a separate den, giving everyone room to spread out, relax, or entertain. The kitchen features a large eat-at bar, perfect for quick meals, morning coffee, or gathering with family and friends. The home offers warm, inviting spaces with true country homestead vibes, making it easy to settle in and feel right at home. A large utility room provides extra storage and workspace to keep everything organized and functional. Outside, you’ll love the open space that comes with a full acre: ideal for gardening, outdoor projects, pets, or simply enjoying the quiet rural surroundings. It also has a paved driveway leading to a detached carport with patio. If you’ve been dreaming of a little land, a lot of comfort, and a location that keeps you close to town without sacrificing privacy, this one checks all the boxes!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $549 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $632 · $53/mo
• Expected delta: +$83/yr (+$7/mo · 15.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 63% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,459
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$549
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,077
• − Management: −$1,077
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $394
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$95
• After-tax cash flow: $2,177/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Carroll Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201950
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -35.00%
• Median HH income: $34,471
• Composite: 24.27/100
• National rank: #7717
• State rank: #46 of 98 in LA

Livability — Oak Grove

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #224
• US rank: #17232

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing B- Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,241

Population outlook (West Carroll County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,760 people
• By 2030: 10,411 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 9,728 · -9.6%
• By 2050: 9,053 · -15.9%
• By 2075: 7,599 · -29.4%
• By 2100: 6,174 · -42.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 15% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · West Carroll

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+74.0) · D 12.6% · R 86.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.5pp toward R · 2008: -63.5pp · 2024: -74.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+74.0 2020: R+71.4 2016: R+68.4 2012: R+61.0 2008: R+63.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.84%
• Current HPI: 226.54
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-8.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — NELABOR
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $115,000 NELABOR
• 2026-02-03 Listed $125,000 NELABOR

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $549 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.