50227 Terry Ray Ave · Nikiski, AK 99611

$130,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,035 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 299 Days on market

Built 2000 0.92 ac lot $126/sqft · 44% below area Est $232k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming Unfinished Cabin with Great Potential! This cozy cabin offers a unique opportunity to add your personal touch. Featuring an open-concept kitchen and living area, this space is perfect for relaxed living or weekend getaways. The home includes one finished bedroom and one full bathroom, freshly painted with new trim and flooring throughout. A second bedroom is framed in and ready for your finishing touches ideal for expanding your living space or hosting guests. Nestled in a peaceful setting, this property is a great investment for anyone looking for a small home or rustic retreat with room to grow.

Key facts

• Finished bedroom
• Open-concept kitchen
• Full bathroom

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• FINISHED BEDROOM
• FULL BATHROOM
• FRAMED SECOND BEDROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $688 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 4.2% in Nikiski — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#131 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, health & safety C-, employment D+.
• Kenai Peninsula Borough School District (rural): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #8 of 21 in AK (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 213 active listings in the ZIP; 152 units permitted in Kenai Peninsula Borough in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kenai Peninsula County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 299 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $114,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 299 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.69%
• DSCR: 2.01
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $232,384
• List price: $130,000
• Delta: -44.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $22,728
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.09×
• Total profit: $76,072
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99611

• Home prices YoY: -30.6%
• Active inventory: 213
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,868 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $619/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $688

Break-even live

Break-even rent $997

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 299 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 298 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $130,000 Active 296 DOM
4. 2026-06-12
   days on market $130,000 Active 295 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 292 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 291 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $130,000 Active 290 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $130,000 Active 289 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $130,000 Active 286 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 285 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 284 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 283 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 282 DOM
14. 2026-02-23
    status Active 619-char remark

    Show marketing remark (619 chars)

    Charming Unfinished Cabin with Great Potential! This cozy cabin offers a unique opportunity to add your personal touch. Featuring an open-concept kitchen and living area, this space is perfect for relaxed living or weekend getaways. The home includes one finished bedroom and one full bathroom, freshly painted with new trim and flooring throughout. A second bedroom is framed in and ready for your finishing touches ideal for expanding your living space or hosting guests. Nestled in a peaceful setting, this property is a great investment for anyone looking for a small home or rustic retreat with room to grow.

15. 2026-01-26
    status Pending 619-char remark

    Show marketing remark (619 chars)

    Charming Unfinished Cabin with Great Potential! This cozy cabin offers a unique opportunity to add your personal touch. Featuring an open-concept kitchen and living area, this space is perfect for relaxed living or weekend getaways. The home includes one finished bedroom and one full bathroom, freshly painted with new trim and flooring throughout. A second bedroom is framed in and ready for your finishing touches ideal for expanding your living space or hosting guests. Nestled in a peaceful setting, this property is a great investment for anyone looking for a small home or rustic retreat with room to grow.

16. 2025-08-28
    price $130,000 619-char remark

    Show marketing remark (619 chars)

    Charming Unfinished Cabin with Great Potential! This cozy cabin offers a unique opportunity to add your personal touch. Featuring an open-concept kitchen and living area, this space is perfect for relaxed living or weekend getaways. The home includes one finished bedroom and one full bathroom, freshly painted with new trim and flooring throughout. A second bedroom is framed in and ready for your finishing touches ideal for expanding your living space or hosting guests. Nestled in a peaceful setting, this property is a great investment for anyone looking for a small home or rustic retreat with room to grow.

17. 2025-08-25
    price $150,000 619-char remark

    Show marketing remark (619 chars)

    Charming Unfinished Cabin with Great Potential! This cozy cabin offers a unique opportunity to add your personal touch. Featuring an open-concept kitchen and living area, this space is perfect for relaxed living or weekend getaways. The home includes one finished bedroom and one full bathroom, freshly painted with new trim and flooring throughout. A second bedroom is framed in and ready for your finishing touches ideal for expanding your living space or hosting guests. Nestled in a peaceful setting, this property is a great investment for anyone looking for a small home or rustic retreat with room to grow.

18. 2025-07-23
    listed $160,000 Active 619-char remark

    Show marketing remark (619 chars)

    Charming Unfinished Cabin with Great Potential! This cozy cabin offers a unique opportunity to add your personal touch. Featuring an open-concept kitchen and living area, this space is perfect for relaxed living or weekend getaways. The home includes one finished bedroom and one full bathroom, freshly painted with new trim and flooring throughout. A second bedroom is framed in and ready for your finishing touches ideal for expanding your living space or hosting guests. Nestled in a peaceful setting, this property is a great investment for anyone looking for a small home or rustic retreat with room to grow.

19. 2017-03-31
    soldstatus
20. 2015-12-04
    listed $65,000
21. 2014-03-10
    listed $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $619 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,083 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: +$464/yr (+$39/mo · 75.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,416
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$619
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,793
• − Management: −$1,793
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $6,497
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,559
• After-tax cash flow: $6,700/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenai Peninsula Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200390
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,704
• Composite: 36.71/100
• National rank: #4594
• State rank: #8 of 21 in AK

Livability — Nikiski

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #131
• US rank: #22928

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nikiski, AK
• Population (ZIP): 16,028

Population outlook (Kenai Peninsula County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,736 people
• By 2030: 66,260 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 70,449 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 74,414 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 87,508 · +37.3%
• By 2100: 95,360 · +49.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Two or more races 14% Native American 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Portuguese 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kenai Peninsula

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.50%
• Current HPI: 169.2848
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+136.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-23 Relisted — AKMLS
• 2026-01-26 Pending — AKMLS
• 2025-08-28 Price Changed $130,000 AKMLS
• 2025-08-25 Price Changed $150,000 AKMLS
• 2025-07-23 Listed $160,000 AKMLS
• 2017-03-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-12-04 Listed $65,000 AKMLS
• 2014-03-10 Listed $55,000 AKMLS

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $619 · +13.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.