504 W 139th St #15 · New York, NY 10031

$279,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 700 sqft · Condo · 112 Days on market

Built 1910 $559/mo HOA ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Appreciation +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Income restricted unit (HDFC). No Board approval required. Tenant occupied.

Key facts

• $559 HOA
• Built 1910
• Listed 111 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has association; Monthly association fee of $559 covering common area maintenance, exterior maintenance, heat, and hot water

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public sewer; Underground utilities
• Home design: Stock cooperative
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Brick construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total of 5 rooms (includes living/bedroom count as reported)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Radiant heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Galley-type kitchen; Primary bathroom; Six total stories in the building; Entry on 3rd level; Pets allowed

🏢 Co-op / cooperative unit. The $279,000 price buys shares in the cooperative corporation, not the real estate itself — so it isn't comparable to a fee-simple sale price, and the cashflow / cap-rate / 1%-rule cards below (which assume you own the property and can rent it out) don't apply here. Expect board approval and a monthly maintenance fee on top of the price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $690 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $279k).
• Recommended offer: $254k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.7%/yr); 89 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,467 units permitted in New York County in 2024 (4,463 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,021/mo this rent would consume 74% of the median local household income ($65k/yr) (locally 5780% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.1%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• New York County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-2.1% appreciation + 6.7% rent growth), your $78k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $253,890 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.60%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.06% appreciation · 6.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $25,647
• Equity at exit: $53,435

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $158,575
• Equity at exit: $44,951

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10031

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 6.7%
• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,021 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$349 /mo · $4,185/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$559
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$844
• Net cashflow: $690

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,148

Max offer price $279,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
132 W 134th St New York, NY	2.0	1.0	750	$4,500	$6.00	25d	1	0.68mi
100 Tower Dr Edgewater, NJ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1290	$5,617	$4.35	1d	9	1.17mi
2 Columbia Ter Edgewater, NJ	1.0	1.0	500	$1,650	$3.30	15d	1	1.30mi
30 Morningside Dr #2096 New York, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	780	$9,000	$11.53	4d	2	1.31mi
2413 3rd Ave Bronx, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	857	$3,948	$4.60	12d	23	1.37mi
1 Morningside Dr New York, NY	3.0	1.0–2.0	1655	$8,145	$4.92	1d	1	1.46mi
5 Lincoln Ave Bronx, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1011	$5,134	$5.08	2d	183	1.47mi
100 River Mews Ln Edgewater, NJ	3.0	1.0–2.0	988	$4,452	$4.50	3d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $559 · $6,708/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,000 Active 112 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,000 Active 111 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,000 Active 109 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,000 Active 107 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $279,000 Active 103 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,000 Active 102 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,000 Active 101 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $279,000 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $279,000 Active 97 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,000 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,000 Active 94 DOM
12. 2026-02-26
    listed $279,000 Active
13. 2023-10-27
    price $350,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,256
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$4,185
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,861
• − Management: −$3,861
• − HOA: −$6,708
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable income: $4,503
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,081
• After-tax cash flow: $7,197/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: New York County · 1,599,927 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 61,058
• Household income: $65,283
• Rent vs Own: 85.9% rent · 14.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 5780.0

Population outlook (New York County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,825,725 people
• By 2030: 1,904,611 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 2,052,719 · +12.4%
• By 2050: 2,206,601 · +20.9%
• By 2075: 2,509,427 · +37.4%
• By 2100: 2,702,933 · +48.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% Black 25% Two or more races 21% White 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 32%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Hispanic 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 38% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 43% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · New York

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 82.4% · R 17.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 72.2pp · 2024: 64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+74.5 2016: D+77.2 2012: D+69.6 2008: D+72.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.06%
• Current HPI: 468.3156
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.67%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-20.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Listed $279,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-27 Price Changed $350,000 RLS at REBNY