2514 Melbourne St · Houston, TX 77026

$99,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1940 8,498 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Investors and home renovators, this property is for you. It needs a complete floor plan redesign and update. It's a blank canvas waiting for a great design plan. The property currently has 4 bedrooms and 2 baths. The property can be gutted and rebuilt or torn down and a new property constructed. Property has a nice size back yard. Great access to Loop 610, Hwy 59/69; I-45 and the Hardy Toll Road. Downtown and Midtown Houston are a short drive away. The property is boarded up for safety concerns. Pls bring a strong light source when viewing. No long option periods. Verify all property information including room sizes. .

Key facts

• Great access to i-45
• Nice size back yard
• 8,498 sq ft lot

Tags

• COMPLETE FLOOR PLAN REDESIGN
• NICE SIZE BACK YARD
• GREAT ACCESS TO LOOP 610
• GREAT ACCESS TO HWY 59
• GREAT ACCESS TO I-45
• SHORT DRIVE TO MIDTOWN HOUSTON

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Electric gate
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Fractional ownership; Built in 1940; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Fully fenced yard; Partial fencing; Asphalt road access; Subdivision lot setting

Interior

• Bedrooms: Up to 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Carpet flooring; No fireplaces; Six total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $245 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Key Middle (math 10% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,569 of 1,662 statewide, top 95%, 615 students, 100% FRL); Northside H S (math 15% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,389 of 1,632 statewide, top 86%, 1,168 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 18% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 445 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($39k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.9% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $99,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.50%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $233,376
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6512 Jensen Dr	0.26mi	3/—	1,259 (+1%)	18mo	$249,999	$199	71
1410 Caplin St	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,209 (-3%)	0mo	$154,000	$127	68
3401 Melbourne St	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,346 (+8%)	3mo	$125,000	$93	66
1909 Melbourne St	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,364 (+9%)	5mo	$259,000	$190	63
6903 Semmes St	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,350 (+8%)	3mo	$399,900	$296	63
3012 Melbourne St	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,075 (-14%)	4mo	$169,000	$157	62
2010 King St	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+12%)	3mo	$269,000	$192	61
2915 Creston Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,392 (+12%)	5mo	$89,000	$64	60
2719 Milwaukee St	0.49mi	3/3.0	1,148 (-8%)	2mo	$215,000	$187	54
5708 Elysian St	0.53mi	3/2.5	1,388 (+11%)	1mo	$249,900	$180	50
7110 Eugene St	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,098 (-12%)	14mo	$190,777	$174	45
5801 Terry St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,360 (+9%)	16mo	$275,000	$202	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.89% appreciation · 3.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $32,636
• Equity at exit: $50,026

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.18×
• Total profit: $88,923
• Equity at exit: $81,327

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77026

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 445
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,349 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$255 /mo · $3,064/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $245

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,039

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2110 Melbourne St Unit 3 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	825	$1,350	$1.64	24d	1	0.17mi
3107 Melbourne St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	956	$1,500	$1.57	43d	1	0.31mi
6869 Arto St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	900	$950	$1.06	17d	6	0.46mi
7301 Jensen Dr Unit 50 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	880	$999	$1.14	7d	1	0.57mi
7301 Jensen Dr Apt 12 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	880	$930	$1.06	7d	1	0.57mi
7320 Jensen Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	935	$1,176	$1.26	2d	5	0.64mi
2516 Ivy St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	43d	1	0.73mi
7506 Jensen Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	772	$1,160	$1.50	4d	12	0.73mi
3810 Lynnfield St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,599	$1.23	15d	1	0.74mi
3812 Lynnfield St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,545	$1.19	5d	1	0.76mi
6918 Irvington Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,550	$1.41	43d	1	1.03mi
4711 Sayers St Unit A Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,650	$1.38	43d	1	1.22mi
4626 Shreveport Blvd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,490	$1.30	14d	1	1.38mi
4111 Cavalcade St Unit 5 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	757	$825	$1.09	43d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-13
   remarks 626-char remark
2. 2026-06-13
   listed $99,900 Pending 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,064 · $255/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,064 · $255/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,187
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$3,064
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,295
• − Management: −$1,295
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $1,532
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$368
• After-tax cash flow: $2,570/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,981
• Household income: $39,211
• Rent vs Own: 56.3% rent · 43.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1531.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 18% White 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 39%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.89%
• Current HPI: 267.5995
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.08%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-10 Listed $99,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-05-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,064 · -5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.