2806 15th Dr · Vernon, TX 76384

$130,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,187 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1961

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.6/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Well-maintained home with fresh interior paint, new tile flooring, and updated kitchen cabinets. Newer HVAC system provides peace of mind. 1-car attached garage could easily be converted into a 4th bedroom or office. Spacious fenced backyard & acirc; & euro; & rdquo; great for families, pets, or gatherings.

Key facts

• New tile flooring
• Fresh interior paint
• Newer hvac system

Tags

• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• NEW TILE FLOORING
• UPDATED KITCHEN CABINETS
• NEWER HVAC SYSTEM
• SPACIOUS FENCED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $468 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,078 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D, schools F.
• Vernon ISD (town): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #673 of 826 in TX (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 19 units permitted in Wilbarger County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wilbarger County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,100 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.43%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $8,737
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $45,961
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76384

• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,662 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,305/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $468

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,069

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $542	-5% $505	+0% $468	+5% $431	+10% $394
Rent	-10% $337	-5% $402	+0% $468	+5% $534	+10% $599
Rate	-1.0pp $534	-0.5pp $501	base $468	+0.5pp $434	+1.0pp $400

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $130,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $130,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $130,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $130,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $130,000 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $130,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    listed $130,000 Active 301-char remark
18. 2022-12-12
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,305 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,379 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,074/yr (+$90/mo · 82.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,939
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,305
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,595
• − Management: −$1,595
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $3,731
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$895
• After-tax cash flow: $4,721/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vernon ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844110
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $41,161
• Composite: 23.7/100
• National rank: #7832
• State rank: #673 of 826 in TX

Livability — Vernon

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1078
• US rank: #19117

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vernon, TX
• City population: 12,239
• Population (ZIP): 12,239

Population outlook (Wilbarger County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,496 people
• By 2030: 12,234 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 11,769 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 11,375 · -9.0%
• By 2075: 10,532 · -15.7%
• By 2100: 9,071 · -27.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 17% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wilbarger

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.6) · D 19.3% · R 79.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.3pp toward R · 2008: -46.3pp · 2024: -60.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.6 2020: R+56.8 2016: R+57.5 2012: R+49.9 2008: R+46.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.65%
• Current HPI: 110.9147
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $130,000 FSBO.com
• 2022-12-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,305 · +14.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.