4064 Lcr 254 · Lake Colorado City, TX 79512

$49,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,190 sqft · SingleFamily · 321 Days on market

Built 1945 Poor condition 0.28 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.2/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lake front property!! Westbrook ISD!! This adorable home is ready for your touches! Carport and dock.

Key facts

• Dock
• Lake front property
• Carport

Tags

• LAKE FRONT PROPERTY
• WESTBROOK ISD
• CARPORT
• DOCK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $49k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $520 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $49k).
• Recommended offer: $43k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#782 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Westbrook ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #429 of 1,141 in TX (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($339 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (4.4% local appreciation)).
• Mitchell County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (4.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 321 days — a 12% lower offer ($43k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 321 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.48%
• DSCR: 3.02
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.37% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 52.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.11×
• Total profit: $42,687
• Equity at exit: $25,916

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.9%
• Equity multiple: 8.39×
• Total profit: $101,336
• Equity at exit: $43,266

Cash invested: $13,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79512

• Home prices YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,087 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$61 /mo · $735/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $520

Break-even live

Break-even rent $429

Max offer price $49,000

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,250
• Closing costs: $1,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $49,000 Active 321 DOM
2. 2026-01-05
   price $49,000 101-char remark

   Show marketing remark (101 chars)

   Lake front property!! Westbrook ISD!! This adorable home is ready for your touches! Carport and dock.

3. 2025-10-29
   price $54,000 101-char remark

   Show marketing remark (101 chars)

   Lake front property!! Westbrook ISD!! This adorable home is ready for your touches! Carport and dock.

4. 2025-07-14
   listed $69,000 Active 101-char remark

   Show marketing remark (101 chars)

   Lake front property!! Westbrook ISD!! This adorable home is ready for your touches! Carport and dock.

5. 2024-10-23
   price $49,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,042
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,745
• − Property taxes: −$735
• − Insurance: −$245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,043
• − Management: −$1,043
• − Depreciation: −$1,425
• Taxable income: $5,805
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,393
• After-tax cash flow: $4,846/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including landscaping and exterior work, to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major landscaping — Overgrown vegetation
• Major exterior maintenance — Lack of maintenance

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and exterior maintenance — Improves curb appeal and property value
• Both Interior updates — Enhances living space and appeal
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizes and increases functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
landscaping · Overgrown vegetation	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior maintenance · Lack of maintenance	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and exterior maintenance — Improves curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Interior updates — Enhances living space and appeal ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizes and increases functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Westbrook ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845210
• Math proficiency: 50% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,806
• Composite: 43.02/100
• National rank: #6658
• State rank: #429 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Lake Colorado City

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #782
• US rank: #14249

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Colorado City, TX
• City population: 7,672
• Population (ZIP): 7,672

Population outlook (Mitchell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,476 people
• By 2030: 8,723 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 9,046 · +6.7%
• By 2050: 9,200 · +8.5%
• By 2075: 8,936 · +5.4%
• By 2100: 7,978 · -5.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 20% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mitchell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.3) · D 14.0% · R 85.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.8pp toward R · 2008: -50.5pp · 2024: -71.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.3 2020: R+68.8 2016: R+65.2 2012: R+52.7 2008: R+50.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.37%
• Current HPI: 99.8822
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $49,000 PBBOR
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $54,000 PBBOR
• 2025-07-14 Listed $69,000 PBBOR
• 2024-10-23 Price Changed $49,000 PBBOR