421 Buchanan Rd · Utica, NY 13502

$289,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,768 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1983 10,018 sqft lot Est $269k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• ARV discount +4.0/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wide open and delightful, this 3 bedroom split will surprise you with its open contemporary design, Volume ceilings, and fire placed family room. Great Spot!

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1983

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $12 ($143/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $248k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#104 in NY, #1,589 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F.
• Utica City School District (urban): math 33% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #562 of 590 in NY (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Thomas Jefferson Elementary School (math 28% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,577 of 2,108 statewide, top 77%, 456 students, 80% FRL); John F Kennedy Middle School (math 27% / reading 35%, grade F, #534 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 695 students, 77% FRL); Thomas R Proctor High School (math 86% / reading 62%, grade B+, #659 of 1,100 statewide, top 60%, 2,675 students, 76% FRL).
• Market conditions: 150 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,484/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 1604% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $290k implies a 93% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $248,351 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.18%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $268,736
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
421 Buchanan Rd	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,768 (0%)	1mo	$297,000	$168	99
625 Cosby Rd	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-10%)	3mo	$325,000	$203	67
410 Utica Rd	0.09mi	3/1.0	1,541 (-13%)	7mo	$164,800	$107	66
407 Kingston Rd	0.32mi	3/1.0	1,664 (-6%)	14mo	$240,000	$144	62
405 Spratt Pl	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,635 (-8%)	6mo	$190,000	$116	61
103 Riverside Dr	0.43mi	3/1.5	1,596 (-10%)	8mo	$200,000	$125	57
136 Forrest St	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,844 (+4%)	1mo	$280,000	$152	56
614 Utica Rd	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,980 (+12%)	12mo	$234,000	$118	54
161 Forrest St	0.55mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,650 (-7%)	8mo	$290,000	$176	48
626 Pauline Ave	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,626 (-8%)	10mo	$245,000	$151	42
156 Forrest St	0.59mi	3/1.5	1,527 (-14%)	13mo	$260,119	$170	39
524 Tamarack St	0.49mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,525 (-14%)	16mo	$290,000	$190	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-46,211
• Equity at exit: $43,225

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-39,241
• Equity at exit: $25,065

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13502

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Active inventory: 150
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,484 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax from tax record: −$309 /mo · $3,708/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$522
• Net cashflow: $12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,468

Max offer price $289,900

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $176	-5% $94	+0% $12	+5% $-70	+10% $-152
Rent	-10% $-184	-5% $-86	+0% $12	+5% $110	+10% $208
Rate	-1.0pp $158	-0.5pp $86	base $12	+0.5pp $-63	+1.0pp $-140

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1 Patriot Cir Utica, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1451	$3,115	$2.15	45d	6	0.55mi
Deerfield Utica, NY	3.0	2.0	2000	$3,600	$1.80	45d	1	0.91mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-28
   listed $289,900 Active
3. 2018-04-06
   soldstatus $150,000
4. 2018-04-05
   soldstatus $150,000 157-char remark

   Show marketing remark (158 chars)

   Wide open and delightful, this 3 bedroom split will surprise you with its open contemporary design, Volume ceilings, and fire placed family room. Great Spot!.

5. 2018-04-05
   soldstatus $150,000 158-char remark

   Show marketing remark (158 chars)

   Wide open and delightful, this 3 bedroom split will surprise you with its open contemporary design, Volume ceilings, and fire placed family room. Great Spot!.

6. 2018-01-18
   listed $159,000 157-char remark

   Show marketing remark (157 chars)

   Wide open and delightful, this 3 bedroom split will surprise you with its open contemporary design, Volume ceilings, and fire placed family room. Great Spot!

7. 2018-01-17
   listed $154,900 158-char remark

   Show marketing remark (158 chars)

   Wide open and delightful, this 3 bedroom split will surprise you with its open contemporary design, Volume ceilings, and fire placed family room. Great Spot!.

8. 1993-08-19
   soldstatus $99,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,708 · $309/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,303 · $359/mo
• Expected delta: +$596/yr (+$50/mo · 16.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,802
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$3,708
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,384
• − Management: −$2,384
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$4,796
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,151
• After-tax cash flow: $1,294/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Utica City School District
• NCES district ID: 3629370
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $31,834
• Composite: 29.01/100
• National rank: #6613
• State rank: #562 of 590 in NY

Livability — Utica

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #104
• US rank: #1589

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Utica, NY
• County: Oneida County · 89,710 people
• City population: 72,968
• Metro: Utica-Rome, NY
• Population (ZIP): 34,037
• Household income: $57,835
• Rent vs Own: 40.8% rent · 59.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1604.0

Population outlook (Oneida County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 225,223 people
• By 2030: 220,384 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 209,071 · -7.2%
• By 2050: 197,920 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 175,541 · -22.1%
• By 2100: 148,491 · -34.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 9% Two or more races 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 3% American 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Philippines, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Oneida

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+15.5 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+5.3 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.76%
• Current HPI: 368.3955
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Utica-Rome, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+192.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-03-28 Listed $289,900 CNYIS
• 2018-04-06 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2018-04-05 Sold (MLS) $150,000 CNYIS
• 2018-04-05 Sold (MLS) $150,000 CNYIS
• 2018-01-18 Listed $159,000 CNYIS
• 2018-01-17 Listed $154,900 CNYIS
• 1993-08-19 Sold (Public Records) $99,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,708 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.