15 Clark Lane Ln · Kilmarnock, VA 22482

$269,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,302 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 144 Days on market

Built 1956 0.64 ac lot $207/sqft · 9% above area Est $247k · 9% over ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• ARV discount +3.4/15.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Price Reduced– Come enjoy living just outside of Kilmarnock, where convenience meets small-town charm. This versatile property offers endless possibilities, perfect as a starter home, full-time residence, long-term rental, or even an Airbnb investment. The home features two bedrooms and two full bathrooms with a spacious layout throughout. Highlights include a large living room with a wood-burning fireplace, a cozy family room with classic pine paneling, a generous kitchen with dining area and knotty pine cabinetry, and a finished basement providing excellent bonus space. Outside, enjoy your full yard being all fenced in, a patio, & a detached shed! Located just minutes from the heart of Kilmarnock, you’ll enjoy easy access to boutique shopping, local dining, grocery stores, and popular big-box conveniences. The YMCA, hospital, coffee shops, cinema, and more are all only a few miles away. Boating enthusiasts will love being just down the street from the Chesapeake Bay Boat Basin, where you can rent a slip and enjoy quick access to the Chesapeake Bay. More details and photos coming soon, don’t miss this great opportunity in a prime location! HVAC 2021 & Hardwood floors under the carpet.

Key facts

• 0.64 acre lot
• Built 1956
• Listed 143 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13 ($-154/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $267k (0.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (25.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (25.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.1% in Kilmarnock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#407 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Lancaster County Public School District (rural): math 27% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #125 of 131 in VA (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Lancaster County population projected at -34% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $75k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 144 days — a 12% lower offer ($237k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,521 (25.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 144 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.20%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $247,165
• List price: $269,500
• Delta: 9.04%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19 Bay Ct	0.50mi	2/2.0	1,168 (-10%)	2mo	$225,000	$193	58
326 Chase St	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,368 (+5%)	10mo	$296,000	$216	56
34 Purcell Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,481 (+14%)	23mo	$285,000	$192	49
223 Roseneath Ave	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,232 (-5%)	13mo	$295,000	$239	45
1 Lawler Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (+12%)	15mo	$210,000	$144	42
400 Brent Pl	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (+12%)	17mo	$205,000	$141	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.34% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $36,415
• Equity at exit: $126,388

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $124,665
• Equity at exit: $198,929

Cash invested: $75,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22482

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,015 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,413
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $952/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $-13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,031

Max offer price $267,229

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $140	-5% $63	+0% $-13	+5% $-89	+10% $-165
Rent	-10% $-172	-5% $-92	+0% $-13	+5% $67	+10% $146
Rate	-1.0pp $123	-0.5pp $56	base $-13	+0.5pp $-83	+1.0pp $-154

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,375
• Closing costs: $8,085
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on marketlisting id $269,500 Active 144 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,500 Active 136 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,500 Active 135 DOM
4. 2026-06-12
   days on market $269,500 Active 134 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,500 Active 131 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,500 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,500 Active 129 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   days on market $269,500 Active 127 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $269,500 Active 125 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,500 Active 124 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,500 Active 123 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,500 Active 122 DOM
13. 2026-05-01
    price $269,500 1233-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1223 chars)

    Price Reduced – Come enjoy living just outside of Kilmarnock, where convenience meets small-town charm. This versatile property offers endless possibilities, perfect as a starter home, full-time residence, long-term rental, or even an Airbnb investment. The home features two bedrooms and two full bathrooms with a spacious layout throughout. Highlights include a large living room with a wood-burning fireplace, a cozy family room with classic pine paneling, a generous kitchen with dining area and knotty pine cabinetry, and a finished basement providing excellent bonus space. Outside, enjoy your full yard being all fenced in, a patio, & a detached shed! Located just minutes from the heart of Kilmarnock, you'll enjoy easy access to boutique shopping, local dining, grocery stores, and popular big-box conveniences. The YMCA, hospital, coffee shops, cinema, and more are all only a few miles away. Boating enthusiasts will love being just down the street from the Chesapeake Bay Boat Basin, where you can rent a slip and enjoy quick access to the Chesapeake Bay. More details and photos coming soon, don't miss this great opportunity in a prime location! HVAC 2021 & Hardwood floors under the carpet.

14. 2026-05-01
    price $269,500 1223-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1223 chars)

    Price Reduced – Come enjoy living just outside of Kilmarnock, where convenience meets small-town charm. This versatile property offers endless possibilities, perfect as a starter home, full-time residence, long-term rental, or even an Airbnb investment. The home features two bedrooms and two full bathrooms with a spacious layout throughout. Highlights include a large living room with a wood-burning fireplace, a cozy family room with classic pine paneling, a generous kitchen with dining area and knotty pine cabinetry, and a finished basement providing excellent bonus space. Outside, enjoy your full yard being all fenced in, a patio, & a detached shed! Located just minutes from the heart of Kilmarnock, you'll enjoy easy access to boutique shopping, local dining, grocery stores, and popular big-box conveniences. The YMCA, hospital, coffee shops, cinema, and more are all only a few miles away. Boating enthusiasts will love being just down the street from the Chesapeake Bay Boat Basin, where you can rent a slip and enjoy quick access to the Chesapeake Bay. More details and photos coming soon, don't miss this great opportunity in a prime location! HVAC 2021 & Hardwood floors under the carpet.

15. 2026-05-01
    price $269,500

    Show marketing remark (1223 chars)

    Price Reduced – Come enjoy living just outside of Kilmarnock, where convenience meets small-town charm. This versatile property offers endless possibilities, perfect as a starter home, full-time residence, long-term rental, or even an Airbnb investment. The home features two bedrooms and two full bathrooms with a spacious layout throughout. Highlights include a large living room with a wood-burning fireplace, a cozy family room with classic pine paneling, a generous kitchen with dining area and knotty pine cabinetry, and a finished basement providing excellent bonus space. Outside, enjoy your full yard being all fenced in, a patio, & a detached shed! Located just minutes from the heart of Kilmarnock, you'll enjoy easy access to boutique shopping, local dining, grocery stores, and popular big-box conveniences. The YMCA, hospital, coffee shops, cinema, and more are all only a few miles away. Boating enthusiasts will love being just down the street from the Chesapeake Bay Boat Basin, where you can rent a slip and enjoy quick access to the Chesapeake Bay. More details and photos coming soon, don't miss this great opportunity in a prime location! HVAC 2021 & Hardwood floors under the carpet.

16. 2026-01-30
    listed $285,000 Active
17. 2026-01-22
    listed $285,000 Active 1233-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1233 chars)

    Price Reduced– Come enjoy living just outside of Kilmarnock, where convenience meets small-town charm. This versatile property offers endless possibilities, perfect as a starter home, full-time residence, long-term rental, or even an Airbnb investment. The home features two bedrooms and two full bathrooms with a spacious layout throughout. Highlights include a large living room with a wood-burning fireplace, a cozy family room with classic pine paneling, a generous kitchen with dining area and knotty pine cabinetry, and a finished basement providing excellent bonus space. Outside, enjoy your full yard being all fenced in, a patio, & a detached shed! Located just minutes from the heart of Kilmarnock, you’ll enjoy easy access to boutique shopping, local dining, grocery stores, and popular big-box conveniences. The YMCA, hospital, coffee shops, cinema, and more are all only a few miles away. Boating enthusiasts will love being just down the street from the Chesapeake Bay Boat Basin, where you can rent a slip and enjoy quick access to the Chesapeake Bay. More details and photos coming soon, don’t miss this great opportunity in a prime location! HVAC 2021 & Hardwood floors under the carpet.

18. 2026-01-10
    historical $285,000

    Show marketing remark (1223 chars)

    Price Reduced – Come enjoy living just outside of Kilmarnock, where convenience meets small-town charm. This versatile property offers endless possibilities, perfect as a starter home, full-time residence, long-term rental, or even an Airbnb investment. The home features two bedrooms and two full bathrooms with a spacious layout throughout. Highlights include a large living room with a wood-burning fireplace, a cozy family room with classic pine paneling, a generous kitchen with dining area and knotty pine cabinetry, and a finished basement providing excellent bonus space. Outside, enjoy your full yard being all fenced in, a patio, & a detached shed! Located just minutes from the heart of Kilmarnock, you'll enjoy easy access to boutique shopping, local dining, grocery stores, and popular big-box conveniences. The YMCA, hospital, coffee shops, cinema, and more are all only a few miles away. Boating enthusiasts will love being just down the street from the Chesapeake Bay Boat Basin, where you can rent a slip and enjoy quick access to the Chesapeake Bay. More details and photos coming soon, don't miss this great opportunity in a prime location! HVAC 2021 & Hardwood floors under the carpet.

19. 2026-01-10
    historical $285,000 1233-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1223 chars)

    Price Reduced – Come enjoy living just outside of Kilmarnock, where convenience meets small-town charm. This versatile property offers endless possibilities, perfect as a starter home, full-time residence, long-term rental, or even an Airbnb investment. The home features two bedrooms and two full bathrooms with a spacious layout throughout. Highlights include a large living room with a wood-burning fireplace, a cozy family room with classic pine paneling, a generous kitchen with dining area and knotty pine cabinetry, and a finished basement providing excellent bonus space. Outside, enjoy your full yard being all fenced in, a patio, & a detached shed! Located just minutes from the heart of Kilmarnock, you'll enjoy easy access to boutique shopping, local dining, grocery stores, and popular big-box conveniences. The YMCA, hospital, coffee shops, cinema, and more are all only a few miles away. Boating enthusiasts will love being just down the street from the Chesapeake Bay Boat Basin, where you can rent a slip and enjoy quick access to the Chesapeake Bay. More details and photos coming soon, don't miss this great opportunity in a prime location! HVAC 2021 & Hardwood floors under the carpet.

20. 2026-01-10
    listed $285,000 Active 1223-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1223 chars)

    Price Reduced – Come enjoy living just outside of Kilmarnock, where convenience meets small-town charm. This versatile property offers endless possibilities, perfect as a starter home, full-time residence, long-term rental, or even an Airbnb investment. The home features two bedrooms and two full bathrooms with a spacious layout throughout. Highlights include a large living room with a wood-burning fireplace, a cozy family room with classic pine paneling, a generous kitchen with dining area and knotty pine cabinetry, and a finished basement providing excellent bonus space. Outside, enjoy your full yard being all fenced in, a patio, & a detached shed! Located just minutes from the heart of Kilmarnock, you'll enjoy easy access to boutique shopping, local dining, grocery stores, and popular big-box conveniences. The YMCA, hospital, coffee shops, cinema, and more are all only a few miles away. Boating enthusiasts will love being just down the street from the Chesapeake Bay Boat Basin, where you can rent a slip and enjoy quick access to the Chesapeake Bay. More details and photos coming soon, don't miss this great opportunity in a prime location! HVAC 2021 & Hardwood floors under the carpet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $952 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,210 · $184/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,258/yr (+$105/mo · 132.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,183
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,096
• − Property taxes: −$952
• − Insurance: −$1,348
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,935
• − Management: −$1,935
• − Depreciation: −$7,840
• Taxable loss: −$4,922
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,181
• After-tax cash flow: $1,027/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lancaster County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102160
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -44.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $48,210
• Composite: 32.58/100
• National rank: #5680
• State rank: #125 of 131 in VA

Livability — Kilmarnock

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #407
• US rank: #17011

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kilmarnock, VA
• Population (ZIP): 3,171

Population outlook (Lancaster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,870 people
• By 2030: 9,172 · -7.1%
• By 2040: 7,719 · -21.8%
• By 2050: 6,551 · -33.6%
• By 2075: 5,110 · -48.2%
• By 2100: 3,884 · -60.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 21% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Serbian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lancaster

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.0) · D 46.1% · R 53.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.1pp toward R · 2008: -5.9pp · 2024: -7.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.0 2020: R+4.6 2016: R+10.0 2012: R+8.6 2008: R+5.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.34%
• Current HPI: 232.4115
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-5.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $269,500 CBRAR
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $269,500 NNAR
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $269,500 CVRMLS
• 2026-01-30 Listed $285,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-01-22 Listed $285,000 CBRAR
• 2026-01-10 Coming Soon $285,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-01-10 Coming Soon $285,000 CBRAR
• 2026-01-10 Listed $285,000 NNAR

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $952 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.