86 Carpenter Rd · Middletown, NY 10958

$379,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1872 1.70 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

There is something deeply grounding about pulling into your own property in New Hampton, New York and knowing the space in front of you holds possibility. Not just a house, but a canvas. Not just a barn, but opportunity waiting for direction. This three bedroom, two bathroom home welcomes you with warmth the moment you step inside. Spacious rooms unfold naturally from one to the next, wrapped in rich wood detail that gives every space texture, character, and soul. Sunlight filters across the walls, highlighting the craftsmanship and inviting you to imagine how each room will evolve with your vision. Whether you lean modern, rustic, minimalist, or bold, the interior offers a blank canvas rea

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Agricultural use
• Two overhead doors

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• OVERSIZED STRUCTURE
• 14 FOOT WALLS
• TWO OVERHEAD DOORS
• AGRICULTURAL USE
• INCOME PRODUCING POTENTIAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $380k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-66 ($-796/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $368k (3.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $330k (13.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $330k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.3% in Middletown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#79 in NY, #1,219 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute C-.
• Minisink Valley Central School District (rural): math 51% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #254 of 590 in NY (top 43%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Minisink Valley Intermediate School (math 32% / reading 58%, grade D-, #1,274 of 2,108 statewide, top 61%, 444 students, 26% FRL); Minisink Valley Middle School (math 27% / reading 58%, grade D-, #373 of 729 statewide, top 52%, 775 students, 28% FRL); Minisink Valley High School (math 94% / reading 75%, grade A, #379 of 1,100 statewide, top 36%, 1,172 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $41k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $38k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $106k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$65k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($374k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $160k; list at $380k implies a 137% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1872 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $330,000 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1872 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.75%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $202,756
• Equity at exit: $342,244

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.65×
• Total profit: $600,564
• Equity at exit: $738,062

Cash invested: $106,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10958

• Home prices YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,992
• Tax from tax record: −$523 /mo · $6,274/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$693
• Net cashflow: $-66

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,384

Max offer price $368,176

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,975
• Closing costs: $11,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
106 County Route 93 New Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	2016	$3,300	$1.64	14d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-18
   listed $379,900 Active
3. 2024-04-10
   historical $2,400
4. 2024-04-02
   listed $2,400
5. 2021-06-09
   soldstatus $160,000
6. 2016-03-21
   historical Expired
7. 2015-09-23
   historical
8. 2015-08-25
   historical Pending
9. 2015-06-11
   price
10. 2015-04-22
    price
11. 2015-03-24
    listed Active
12. 2015-03-23
    listed $169,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,274 · $523/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,347 · $529/mo
• Expected delta: +$73/yr (+$6/mo · 1.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,280
• − Property taxes: −$6,274
• − Insurance: −$1,900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,168
• − Management: −$3,168
• − Depreciation: −$11,052
• Taxable loss: −$7,242
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,738
• After-tax cash flow: $942/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Minisink Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $84,292
• Composite: 50.18/100
• National rank: #1897
• State rank: #254 of 590 in NY

Livability — Middletown

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #79
• US rank: #1219

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute C- Cost of living C Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 68,033
• Population (ZIP): 2,717

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 14% Black 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 9% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Portuguese 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.58%
• Current HPI: 294.1542
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+123.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-18 Listed $379,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-10 Rental Removed $2,400 ONEKEY
• 2024-04-02 Listed for Rent $2,400 ONEKEY
• 2021-06-09 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 2016-03-21 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2015-09-23 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-08-25 Contingent — HGMLS
• 2015-06-11 Price Changed — HGMLS
• 2015-04-22 Price Changed — HGMLS
• 2015-03-24 Listed — HGMLS
• 2015-03-23 Listed $169,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,274 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.