5609 Spanish Point Ct · Ellenton, FL 34221

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,393 sqft · Townhouse public records · 119 Days on market

Built 2003 2,148 sqft lot $506/mo HOA · 21% of rent ↓ 23% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Short Sale. This gorgeous maintenance free villa with golf course and lake views is simply splendid in every way. The open floor plan is ideal for entertaining and the sliding glass doors pocket and disappearmaking the living space even larger while allowing in the cool fall breezes. The spacious master bedroom and bath provide a feeling of peace and elegance while the second bedroom and bath have a pocket door allowing this area to be turned into a guest suite for a private retreat. The den/bonus room/flex space has beautiful French doors that can be used to keep the area open or to close it off for the possibility of a 3rd bedroom. A brand new air conditioner was just installed in 2011. This home showslike a model, and with low inventory and even lower interest rates we do not expect it to last long. Please call and schedule your appointment today!

Key facts

• Huge master bathroom
• Screened-in lanai
• Scenic walking paths

Tags

• SCREENED-IN LANAI
• WATER AND GOLF COURSE VIEWS
• HUGE MASTER BATHROOM
• EXPANSIVE WALK-IN CLOSET
• ACCESS TO POOL
• SCENIC WALKING PATHS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total monthly fees $506; total annual fees $6,072
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly HOA $506; quarterly association fee $1,518); Association requires approval; Association fee covers pool, structure maintenance, grounds maintenance, management, private road; Community pool; Community sidewalks and street lights; Community mailbox; Buyer approval required; Pets allowed with limits; Irrigation with reclaimed water

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected; Underground utilities; Sprinkler using recycled water; Irrigation equipment
• Home design: Residential villa; Single-story (one level); Northeast facing
• Construction: Stucco construction; Tile roof; Slab foundation; Built in 1 story
• Exterior features: Covered screened patio/porch; Exterior lighting; Rain gutters; Sidewalk; Sliding doors

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Freezer; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Crown molding; Kitchen/family room combo; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Split bedroom layout; Thermostat; Tray ceilings; Walk-in closets; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Inside laundry in a laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $195 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $182k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.5% in Ellenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1160 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $200k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,000 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.18%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-26,916
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-34,163
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1160
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,452 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$104 /mo · $1,242/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$506
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $195

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,205

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9650 52nd Ave E Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$2,342	$2.23	23d	99	0.42mi
8132 Tea Olive Ter Palmetto, FL	4.0	3.0	1698	$2,500	$1.47	23d	1	0.56mi
5020 Cedar Leaf Cir Palmetto, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	873	$2,491	$2.85	1d	21	0.62mi
5871 Bungalow Grove Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1492	$2,185	$1.46	21d	1	0.65mi
5511 Bungalow Grove Ct Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1633	$2,900	$1.78	23d	1	0.78mi
6210 Terra Lago Cir Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$2,405	$2.37	3d	50	0.80mi
9117 Optimist Way Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1489	$2,200	$1.48	23d	1	0.93mi
7122 87th Ln E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1593	$2,750	$1.73	23d	1	0.94mi
4117 84th Ct E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$2,466	$1.70	21d	1	1.01mi
6249 Fairmont Ln Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,890	$1.57	14d	1	1.02mi
6256 Fairmont Ln Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.5	1216	$1,845	$1.52	14d	1	1.05mi
6334 Fairmont Ln Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.5	1235	$1,795	$1.45	3d	1	1.06mi
6354 Fairmont Ln Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.5	1123	$2,000	$1.78	23d	1	1.07mi
6345 Willowside St Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1407	$2,200	$1.56	23d	1	1.09mi
4014 84th Ct E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1555	$2,516	$1.62	21d	1	1.12mi
5331 Rushmere Ct Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.5	1582	$2,600	$1.64	23d	1	1.13mi
7562 Sea Oak Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1433	$2,400	$1.67	21d	1	1.24mi
7566 Sea Oak Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1807	$2,700	$1.49	21d	1	1.24mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $506 · $6,072/yr

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 119 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 116 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 114 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 113 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $200,000 Active 111 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 110 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 109 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $200,000 Active 108 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 104 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 103 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 102 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 101 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    price $200,000
16. 2026-02-19
    listed $230,000 Active
17. 2025-12-31
    historical
18. 2025-10-15
    price $250,000
19. 2025-06-10
    listed $279,000 Active
20. 2012-01-30
    soldstatus $105,000
21. 2012-01-20
    soldstatus $105,000 863-char remark

    Show marketing remark (863 chars)

    Short Sale. This gorgeous maintenance free villa with golf course and lake views is simply splendid in every way. The open floor plan is ideal for entertaining and the sliding glass doors pocket and disappearmaking the living space even larger while allowing in the cool fall breezes. The spacious master bedroom and bath provide a feeling of peace and elegance while the second bedroom and bath have a pocket door allowing this area to be turned into a guest suite for a private retreat. The den/bonus room/flex space has beautiful French doors that can be used to keep the area open or to close it off for the possibility of a 3rd bedroom. A brand new air conditioner was just installed in 2011. This home showslike a model, and with low inventory and even lower interest rates we do not expect it to last long. Please call and schedule your appointment today!

22. 2011-10-17
    listed $100,000 863-char remark

    Show marketing remark (863 chars)

    Short Sale. This gorgeous maintenance free villa with golf course and lake views is simply splendid in every way. The open floor plan is ideal for entertaining and the sliding glass doors pocket and disappearmaking the living space even larger while allowing in the cool fall breezes. The spacious master bedroom and bath provide a feeling of peace and elegance while the second bedroom and bath have a pocket door allowing this area to be turned into a guest suite for a private retreat. The den/bonus room/flex space has beautiful French doors that can be used to keep the area open or to close it off for the possibility of a 3rd bedroom. A brand new air conditioner was just installed in 2011. This home showslike a model, and with low inventory and even lower interest rates we do not expect it to last long. Please call and schedule your appointment today!

23. 2008-03-29
    historical
24. 2008-01-17
    listed $160,000
25. 2005-12-07
    soldstatus $240,000
26. 2005-11-23
    soldstatus $240,000
27. 2005-10-06
    listed $259,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,242 · $104/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,660 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$418/yr (+$35/mo · 33.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,418
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,242
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,353
• − Management: −$2,353
• − HOA: −$6,072
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$625
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$150
• After-tax cash flow: $2,490/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 14,819
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1193.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-23.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $200,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-19 Listed $230,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-15 Price Changed $250,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-10 Listed $279,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 2012-01-20 Sold (MLS) $105,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-10-17 Listed $100,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-03-29 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-01-17 Listed $160,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $240,000 Public Records
• 2005-11-23 Sold (MLS) $240,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-10-06 Listed $259,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,242 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.