11531 NW 17th Pl · Ocala Estates, FL 34482

$160,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · Manufactured public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1996

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 5 Bedroom 2 Bathroom Mobile Home. Selling by Owner. Call or text for questions or to schedule a time to see the home.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 1996
• Listed 29 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.1%/yr); 663 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,591/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($66k/yr) (locally 282% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,600 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.10%
• DSCR: 2.25
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.22×
• Total profit: $54,564
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.37×
• Total profit: $195,778
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34482

• Rents YoY: 11.1%
• Active inventory: 663
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,591 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$92 /mo · $1,106/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$544
• Net cashflow: $1,049

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,263

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,140	-5% $1,094	+0% $1,049	+5% $1,004	+10% $959
Rent	-10% $844	-5% $947	+0% $1,049	+5% $1,152	+10% $1,254
Rate	-1.0pp $1,130	-0.5pp $1,090	base $1,049	+0.5pp $1,008	+1.0pp $966

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10380 NW 21st St Ocala, FL	4.0	3.0	1955	$4,800	$2.46	14d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 27 DOM

   Show marketing remark (126 chars)

   Spacious 5 Bedroom 2 Bathroom Mobile Home. Selling by Owner. Call or text for questions or to schedule a time to see the home.

4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $160,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $160,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $160,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    listed $160,000 Active 126-char remark

    Show marketing remark (126 chars)

    Spacious 5 Bedroom 2 Bathroom Mobile Home. Selling by Owner. Call or text for questions or to schedule a time to see the home.

16. 2014-10-02
    historical
17. 2014-04-02
    listed $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,106 · $92/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,328 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$222/yr (+$18/mo · 20.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,095
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$1,106
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,488
• − Management: −$2,488
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $10,597
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,543
• After-tax cash flow: $10,047/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ocala Estates

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ocala Estates, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 22,807
• Household income: $65,901
• Rent vs Own: 16.7% rent · 83.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 282.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 14% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.62%
• Current HPI: 194.3857
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.12%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+255.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Pending — FSBO.com
• 2026-05-13 Listed $160,000 Fizber.com
• 2026-05-12 Listed $160,000 FSBO.com
• 2014-10-02 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-02 Listed $45,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,106 · +26.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.