2125 Nocturne Ct SE · Salem, OR 97306

$129,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,298 sqft · Land · 231 Days on market

Built 2021 $99/sqft · at area comps Est $125k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

"Beautiful 2021 manufactured home in a desirable 55+ community in SE Salem! This nearly new 2-bed, 2-bath home includes a bonus room perfect for an office or 3rd bedroom. Bright and open floor plan with high ceilings, modern finishes, and a stunning kitchen with all appliances included—plus washer, dryer, and all items currently in the home at time of showing. Enjoy low-maintenance living in a peaceful park with $775 space rent. Prime location of Commercial St SE with quick I-5 access, close to shopping, dining, and top-rated schools. Move-in ready and barely lived in—don’t miss this one!"

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Bonus room
• Modern finishes

Tags

• BONUS ROOM
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• MODERN FINISHES
• STUNNING KITCHEN
• LOW MAINTENANCE LIVING
• PRIME LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $542 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 2.9% in Salem — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#59 in OR, #2,084 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 272 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 231 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $129k implies a 1187% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $113,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 231 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.02%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $124,655
• List price: $129,000
• Delta: 3.49%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.64% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $11,331
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.25×
• Total profit: $45,104
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97306

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 272
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,690 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $746/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $542

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,003

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2116 Nomad Ct SE Unit 2120 Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,425	$1.36	13d	1	0.10mi
2194 Navaho Ct SE Unit 2198 Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	989	$1,395	$1.41	43d	1	0.15mi
2220 Navaho Ct SE Unit 2220 Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	1023	$1,295	$1.27	23d	1	0.16mi
1860 Rees Hill Rd SE Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	962	$1,675	$1.74	13d	2	0.23mi
1860 Rees Hill Rd SE Unit 1870-205 Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	23d	1	0.23mi
1860 Rees Hill Rd SE Unit 1890-112 Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	925	$1,650	$1.78	43d	1	0.23mi
6953 Talloc Ave SE Unit 6955 Salem, OR	3.0	2.5	1418	$2,295	$1.62	13d	1	0.55mi
1900 Madras St SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	895	$1,615	$1.80	13d	10	0.71mi
1691 Waln Dr SE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	955	$1,725	$1.81	13d	6	0.76mi
6127 Blue River Dr SE Salem, OR	3.0	2.5	1531	$2,450	$1.60	43d	1	0.79mi
1951 Madras St SE Salem, OR	2.0	2.5	1465	$1,975	$1.35	21d	1	0.81mi
1626 Madras St SE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	921	$1,695	$1.84	43d	1	0.85mi
6150 Fircrest St SE Salem, OR	3.0	1.5	1140	$2,050	$1.80	13d	1	0.88mi
6150 Fircrest St SE Unit 6160 Salem, OR	3.0	1.5	1140	$2,050	$1.80	13d	1	0.88mi
5943 Blue River Dr SE Salem, OR	3.0	3.0	1472	$2,395	$1.63	43d	1	0.91mi
1544 Fircrest Ct SE Salem, OR	2.0	1.5	1296	$1,850	$1.43	23d	1	0.94mi
5952 Park Ct SE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0	742	$1,299	$1.75	13d	11	0.95mi
1807 Wiltsey Rd SE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	845	$1,710	$2.02	13d	6	0.97mi
5851 Reed Ln SE Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	990	$1,652	$1.67	13d	7	0.98mi
1410 Jonmart Ave SE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1096	$1,995	$1.82	13d	1	1.00mi
5775 Commercial St SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	779	$1,970	$2.53	23d	17	1.02mi
5775 Commercial St SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	779	$1,900	$2.44	13d	47	1.02mi
5823 Reed Ln SE Unit 112 Salem, OR	2.0	2.5	1198	$1,995	$1.67	23d	1	1.04mi
5815 Reed Ln SE Unit 133 Salem, OR	2.0	2.5	1198	$1,995	$1.67	23d	1	1.06mi
1543 Wiltsey Rd SE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0–2.0	1043	$1,475	$1.41	13d	4	1.10mi
5512 Murray St SE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1275	$2,645	$2.07	21d	1	1.37mi
2772 Bastille Ave SE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1614	$2,495	$1.55	21d	1	1.40mi
5787 Sunstone St SE Unit 5787 Salem, OR	3.0	1.5	1192	$1,645	$1.38	23d	1	1.44mi
5535 Woodside Dr SE Unit 442-60 Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	982	$1,399	$1.42	43d	1	1.44mi
5442 Monterey Dr SE Unit 5442 Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	1112	$1,995	$1.79	23d	1	1.47mi
5423 Monterey Dr SE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1457	$2,295	$1.58	23d	1	1.47mi
Deercreek CT Salem, OR	2.0	1.0–2.0	871	$1,410	$1.62	13d	7	1.50mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 231 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 230 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 229 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 228 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,000 Active 226 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,000 Active 223 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 222 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,000 Active 221 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,000 Active 220 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,000 Active 216 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,000 Active 215 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,000 Active 214 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 213 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $129,000 Active 212 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    price $129,000 624-char remark

    Show marketing remark (624 chars)

    "Beautiful 2021 manufactured home in a desirable 55+ community in SE Salem! This nearly new 2-bed, 2-bath home includes a bonus room perfect for an office or 3rd bedroom. Bright and open floor plan with high ceilings, modern finishes, and a stunning kitchen with all appliances included—plus washer, dryer, and all items currently in the home at time of showing. Enjoy low-maintenance living in a peaceful park with $775 space rent. Prime location of Commercial St SE with quick I-5 access, close to shopping, dining, and top-rated schools. Move-in ready and barely lived in—don’t miss this one!"

16. 2026-03-28
    price $141,900 624-char remark

    Show marketing remark (624 chars)

    "Beautiful 2021 manufactured home in a desirable 55+ community in SE Salem! This nearly new 2-bed, 2-bath home includes a bonus room perfect for an office or 3rd bedroom. Bright and open floor plan with high ceilings, modern finishes, and a stunning kitchen with all appliances included—plus washer, dryer, and all items currently in the home at time of showing. Enjoy low-maintenance living in a peaceful park with $775 space rent. Prime location of Commercial St SE with quick I-5 access, close to shopping, dining, and top-rated schools. Move-in ready and barely lived in—don’t miss this one!"

17. 2025-12-04
    price $148,900 624-char remark

    Show marketing remark (624 chars)

    "Beautiful 2021 manufactured home in a desirable 55+ community in SE Salem! This nearly new 2-bed, 2-bath home includes a bonus room perfect for an office or 3rd bedroom. Bright and open floor plan with high ceilings, modern finishes, and a stunning kitchen with all appliances included—plus washer, dryer, and all items currently in the home at time of showing. Enjoy low-maintenance living in a peaceful park with $775 space rent. Prime location of Commercial St SE with quick I-5 access, close to shopping, dining, and top-rated schools. Move-in ready and barely lived in—don’t miss this one!"

18. 2025-10-30
    listed $149,900 Active 624-char remark

    Show marketing remark (624 chars)

    "Beautiful 2021 manufactured home in a desirable 55+ community in SE Salem! This nearly new 2-bed, 2-bath home includes a bonus room perfect for an office or 3rd bedroom. Bright and open floor plan with high ceilings, modern finishes, and a stunning kitchen with all appliances included—plus washer, dryer, and all items currently in the home at time of showing. Enjoy low-maintenance living in a peaceful park with $775 space rent. Prime location of Commercial St SE with quick I-5 access, close to shopping, dining, and top-rated schools. Move-in ready and barely lived in—don’t miss this one!"

19. 1996-12-18
    soldstatus $10,020

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $746 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,251 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$505/yr (+$42/mo · 67.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,277
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$746
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,622
• − Management: −$1,622
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $4,663
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,119
• After-tax cash flow: $5,391/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem-Keizer SD 24J
• NCES district ID: 4110820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,632
• Composite: 37.16/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #103 of 183 in OR

Livability — Salem

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #2084

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Salem, OR
• County: Marion County · 258,219 people
• City population: 193,601
• Metro: Salem, OR
• Population (ZIP): 34,383
• Household income: $101,753
• Rent vs Own: 30.7% rent · 69.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1437.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 9% Asian 5% Pacific Islander 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Portuguese 5% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -335.25%
• Current HPI: 279.7875
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.64%
• Metro: Salem, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+1187.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $129,000 WVMLS
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $141,900 WVMLS
• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $148,900 WVMLS
• 2025-10-30 Listed $149,900 WVMLS
• 1996-12-18 Sold (Public Records) $10,020 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $746 · +7.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.