121 N Kentucky St · Alton, TX 78573

$90,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,060 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 77 Days on market

Built 1972 7,840 sqft lot $85/sqft · 51% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming and affordable starter home located in a quiet, established neighborhood. Conveniently close to schools, parks, churches, restaurants, and H-E-B. Area is experiencing growth with new commercial developments and shopping centers nearby—great opportunity for homeowners or investors.

Key facts

• 7,840 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1972

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $221 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $85k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 2.6% in Alton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,230 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Mission CISD (urban): math 15% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #775 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 623 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $84,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.53%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $184,815
• List price: $90,000
• Delta: -51.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1205 Combes Ave	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,187 (+12%)	16mo	$199,000	$168	43
1003 W Garfield Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,199 (+13%)	3mo	$175,000	$146	40
127 Minnesota St	0.28mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,187 (+12%)	23mo	$199,000	$168	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.48×
• Total profit: $62,535
• Equity at exit: $81,079

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.82×
• Total profit: $171,942
• Equity at exit: $174,850

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78573

• Home prices YoY: 8.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 623
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,065 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,327/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $221

Break-even live

Break-even rent $785

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
312 W Campeche Ave Unit 4 Alton, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,165	$1.17	23d	1	0.29mi
312 W Campeche Ave Unit 1 Alton, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,065	$1.06	23d	1	0.29mi
308 W Campeche Ave Unit 1 Alton, TX	2.0	2.0	916	$1,000	$1.09	44d	1	0.29mi
909 W Kohala Ave Unit 1 Alton, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,050	$0.95	14d	1	0.36mi
713 N Maryland St Unit 4 Alton, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	23d	1	0.39mi
908 W Kohala Ave Unit 1 Alton, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$950	$1.06	14d	1	0.39mi
904 W Mahala Ave Unit 3 Alton, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$925	$1.03	23d	1	0.43mi
805 N Maryland St Unit 3 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	893	$1,115	$1.25	21d	1	0.44mi
308 W Campeche Ave Unit 2 Alton, TX	3.0	2.0	1184	$1,165	$0.98	44d	1	0.46mi
307 W Campeche Ave Unit 3 Alton, TX	2.0	2.0	980	$1,100	$1.12	23d	1	0.48mi
307 W Campeche Ave Unit 4 Alton, TX	3.0	2.0	1148	$1,300	$1.13	23d	1	0.48mi
1005 W La Pointe Ave Unit 3 Alton, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,175	$1.07	23d	1	0.48mi
1005 W La Pointe Ave Unit 3 Alton, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,175	$1.07	44d	1	0.48mi
908 Kentucky St Unit 3 Alton, TX	2.0	2.0	928	$1,075	$1.16	23d	1	0.50mi
912 Kentucky St #3 Alton, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$1,100	$1.16	14d	1	0.52mi
913 W Sunset Valley St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,300	$1.25	44d	1	0.53mi
1001 W Sunset Valley St Alton, TX	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,200	$1.14	44d	1	0.53mi
805 W Sunset Valley St Unit 3 Alton, TX	2.0	2.0	928	$1,050	$1.13	23d	1	0.53mi
1000 Kentucky St Unit 1 Alton, TX	2.0	2.0	928	$1,075	$1.16	44d	1	0.54mi
1001 W Sunset Valley St Unit 4 Alton, TX	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,100	$1.01	23d	1	0.54mi
1001 W Sunset Valley St Unit 4 Alton, TX	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,100	$1.01	44d	1	0.54mi
1001 N Maryland St Apt 1 Alton, TX	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,075	$0.98	14d	1	0.56mi
116 W Campeche Ave Unit 4 Alton, TX	3.0	2.0	1175	$1,200	$1.02	44d	1	0.57mi
116 W Campeche Ave Unit 3 Alton, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	44d	1	0.57mi
120 W Diamond Ave Unit 3 Alton, TX	2.0	2.0	958	$1,100	$1.15	23d	1	0.58mi
1309 W Garfield Ave Unit 3 Alton, TX	2.0	2.0	957	$900	$0.94	23d	1	0.61mi
809 S Michigan St Unit 4 Alton, TX	2.0	1.5	1000	$875	$0.88	44d	1	0.62mi
1327 W Garfield Ave Unit 3 Alton, TX	2.0	2.0	995	$925	$0.93	23d	1	0.62mi
1327 W Garfield Ave Unit 2 Alton, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	14d	1	0.62mi
810 S Missouri St Apt 2 Alton, TX	2.0	2.0	990	$925	$0.93	21d	1	0.66mi
818 S Missouri St Unit 2 Alton, TX	2.0	2.0	869	$960	$1.10	44d	1	0.68mi
825 S Mississippi St Unit C Alton, TX	2.0	2.0	912	$800	$0.88	19d	1	0.69mi
1302 W Harrison Ave Unit 1 Alton, TX	2.0	2.0	1050	$890	$0.85	44d	1	0.69mi
1310 W Harrison Ave Unit 2 Alton, TX	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,325	$1.26	44d	1	0.70mi
1310 W Harrison Ave Unit 3 Alton, TX	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,325	$1.26	23d	1	0.70mi
1421 W Harrison Ave Alton, TX	3.0	2.0	1008	$750	$0.74	19d	1	0.72mi
1421 W Harrison Ave Alton, TX	3.0	2.0	1008	$925	$0.92	44d	1	0.72mi
1421 W Harrison Ave Unit 6 Alton, TX	3.0	2.0	1008	$750	$0.74	23d	1	0.72mi
1412 W Harrison Ave Unit 3 Alton, TX	3.0	2.5	1200	$975	$0.81	21d	1	0.73mi
1428 W Harrison Ave Unit 3 Alton, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$975	$0.97	23d	1	0.76mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $90,000 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $90,000 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,000 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $90,000 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $90,000 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $90,000 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 58 DOM
15. 2026-04-02
    listed $90,000 Active 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    Charming and affordable starter home located in a quiet, established neighborhood. Conveniently close to schools, parks, churches, restaurants, and H-E-B. Area is experiencing growth with new commercial developments and shopping centers nearby—great opportunity for homeowners or investors.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,327 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,647 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$320/yr (+$27/mo · 24.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,778
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,327
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,022
• − Management: −$1,022
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $1,298
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$311
• After-tax cash flow: $2,343/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mission CISD
• NCES district ID: 4831040
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $32,855
• Composite: 17.47/100
• National rank: #9061
• State rank: #775 of 826 in TX

Livability — Alton

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1230
• US rank: #21479

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alton, TX
• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• City population: 44,809
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,809
• Household income: $55,000
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 855.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 96% Two or more races 63% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 94%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada
• Languages at home: 12% English-only · Spanish 88%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.95%
• Current HPI: 242.0711
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.45%
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Listed $90,000 MCALLENMLS

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,327 · +10.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.