130 Baldwin Ave · Pontiac, MI 48342

$75,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,015 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 787 Days on market

Built 1910 2,178 sqft lot $74/sqft · 25% below area Est $101k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 2,178 sq ft lot
• Built 1910
• Listed 787 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $462 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.7% vs local median 6.7% in Pontiac — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#499 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, crime F.
• Pontiac City School District (urban): math 8% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #514 of 540 in MI (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 787 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $66,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 787 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.41%
• DSCR: 2.18
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $100,507
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: -25.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
245 W Howard St	0.17mi	2/1.0	1,030 (+2%)	3mo	$130,000	$126	88
42 Pingree Ave	0.27mi	2/1.0	945 (-7%)	4mo	$61,500	$65	73
474 N Saginaw St	0.26mi	3/1.0 (+1)	933 (-8%)	2mo	$120,000	$129	68
217 Edison St	0.39mi	2/1.0	900 (-11%)	2mo	$97,000	$108	61
155 Pingree Ave	0.43mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,017 (+0%)	17mo	$145,000	$143	60
14 Hudson Ave	0.38mi	3/1.5 (+1)	950 (-6%)	10mo	$145,000	$153	56
27 Clarence St	0.61mi	3/1.0 (+1)	992 (-2%)	9mo	$57,000	$57	55
148 E Rundell St	0.51mi	3/1.0 (+1)	931 (-8%)	13mo	$125,000	$134	46
119 Wolfe St	0.73mi	2/1.0	1,088 (+7%)	9mo	$170,000	$156	46
84 N Glenwood Ave	0.74mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,026 (+1%)	14mo	$156,000	$152	45
92 Oakhill St	0.71mi	3/1.0 (+1)	966 (-5%)	13mo	$97,000	$100	43
172 Nelson St	0.69mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,152 (+14%)	6mo	$180,000	$156	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $17,272
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.52×
• Total profit: $52,906
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48342

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Active inventory: 87
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,186 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $599/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $462

Break-even live

Break-even rent $601

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $505	-5% $483	+0% $462	+5% $441	+10% $420
Rent	-10% $368	-5% $415	+0% $462	+5% $509	+10% $556
Rate	-1.0pp $500	-0.5pp $481	base $462	+0.5pp $443	+1.0pp $423

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
278 Cesar E Chavez Ave Pontiac, MI	1.0	1.0	750	$950	$1.27	25d	1	0.15mi
65 Whitfield St Pontiac, MI	3.0	1.0	924	$1,175	$1.27	44d	1	0.45mi
97 Fairgrove St Apt 2 Pontiac, MI	2.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	5d	1	0.50mi
5 Carter St Pontiac, MI	1.0	1.0	880	$1,034	$1.18	5d	1	0.59mi
49 Oakhill St Pontiac, MI	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,575	$1.31	25d	1	0.61mi
20 Frank St Pontiac, MI	1.0	1.0	995	$800	$0.80	18d	1	0.67mi
35 N Saginaw St Unit 2 Pontiac, MI	1.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	44d	1	0.78mi
35 N Saginaw St Pontiac, MI	1.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	44d	1	0.78mi
28 N Saginaw St Pontiac, MI	1.0	1.0	615	$1,600	$2.60	5d	10	0.81mi
264 Nelson St Pontiac, MI	3.0	1.0	1478	$1,590	$1.08	44d	1	0.89mi
4000 Winston Dr Pontiac, MI	2.0	1.5	952	$1,182	$1.24	0d	1	0.92mi
23 Henry Clay Ave Unit 1 Pontiac, MI	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	18d	1	0.98mi
38 Spokane Dr Pontiac, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	44d	1	1.08mi
195 W Kennett Rd Unit 202 Pontiac, MI	2.0	1.0	950	$875	$0.92	44d	1	1.10mi
191 W Kennett Rd Unit 304 Pontiac, MI	2.0	1.0	850	$875	$1.03	44d	1	1.11mi
188 Vernon Dr Pontiac, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	25d	1	1.16mi
223 Tucker St Pontiac, MI	2.0	2.5	1295	$1,700	$1.31	18d	1	1.18mi
672 Linda Vista Dr Pontiac, MI	3.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	4d	1	1.18mi
85 E Beverly Ave Pontiac, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,250	$1.25	5d	1	1.18mi
16 Victory Dr Unit 18 Pontiac, MI	2.0	1.0	1114	$1,150	$1.03	25d	1	1.20mi
16 Victory Dr Unit 18 Pontiac, MI	2.0	1.0	1118	$1,150	$1.03	44d	1	1.20mi
60 Waldo St Pontiac, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	5d	1	1.21mi
68 N Shirley St Pontiac, MI	3.0	1.0	950	$1,395	$1.47	18d	1	1.24mi
38 N Shirley St Pontiac, MI	3.0	1.0	1174	$1,425	$1.21	44d	1	1.27mi
126 W Cornell Ave Pontiac, MI	3.0	1.0	891	$1,325	$1.49	44d	1	1.27mi
126 W Cornell Ave Pontiac, MI	3.0	1.0	891	$1,125	$1.26	22d	1	1.27mi
97 S Jessie St Unit 2 Pontiac, MI	2.0	1.0	800	$1,120	$1.40	25d	1	1.34mi
957 Perry St Pontiac, MI	1.0–3.0	1.0	835	$974	$1.17	44d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 787 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 786 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 785 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 784 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 782 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 781 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 778 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 777 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $75,000 Active 776 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $75,000 Active 773 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 772 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 771 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 770 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 769 DOM
15. 2024-09-10
    soldstatus $180,000
16. 2024-04-23
    listed $75,000 Active
17. 2024-04-23
    listed $75,000 Active
18. 2024-04-18
    historical $75,000
19. 2024-04-18
    historical $75,000
20. 2020-07-15
    historical
21. 2020-07-15
    historical
22. 2020-01-20
    listed $49,900 Active
23. 2020-01-20
    listed $49,900 Active
24. 2005-04-29
    soldstatus $53,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $599 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $877 · $73/mo
• Expected delta: +$278/yr (+$23/mo · 46.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,227
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$599
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,138
• − Management: −$1,138
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $4,594
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,103
• After-tax cash flow: $4,443/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pontiac City School District
• NCES district ID: 2628740
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $33,888
• Composite: 10.12/100
• National rank: #9802
• State rank: #514 of 540 in MI

Livability — Pontiac

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #499
• US rank: #14703

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pontiac, MI
• City population: 44,593
• Population (ZIP): 17,227

Population outlook (Oakland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,335,747 people
• By 2030: 1,375,100 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 1,435,385 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 1,469,250 · +10.0%
• By 2075: 1,531,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 1,450,485 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% Hispanic / Latino 19% White 13% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oakland

• 2024 margin: D (+10.6) · D 54.4% · R 43.8% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: 14.5pp · 2024: 10.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.6 2020: D+14.1 2016: D+8.1 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.18%
• Current HPI: 214.3258
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+239.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2024-09-10 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
• 2024-04-23 Listed $75,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-04-23 Listed $75,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-04-18 Coming Soon $75,000 REALCOMP
• 2024-04-18 Coming Soon $75,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-07-15 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-07-15 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2020-01-20 Listed $49,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-01-20 Listed $49,900 REALCOMP
• 2005-04-29 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $599 · -10.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.