2040 Aldrich Mews · Celina, TX 75009

$339,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,852 sqft · Townhouse · 110 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 2,483 sqft lot 2-car garage $184/sqft · 6% below area Est $362k · 6% under $275/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MLS# 21292989 - Built by Grenadier Investments - Ready Now! ~ 35 Years. 35 Homes. 35 Days. Celebrate our 35th Anniversary with incredible savings and special incentives on this home! See Sales Counselor for details. Stunning contemporary townhouse in the highly desirable Ten Mile Creek community, offering 1,852 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space with an estimated completion date of June 26, 2026. This exceptional 3-bedroom, 3-bath home features three private bedroom suites, each complete with walk-in closets and spa-inspired baths featuring double vanities.

Key facts

• Spa-inspired baths
• Walk-in closets
• Large island

Tags

• CONTEMPORARY TOWNHOUSE
• PRIVATE BEDROOM SUITES
• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• SPA-INSPIRED BATHS
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $340k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-435 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $277k (18.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $277k (18.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $277k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.9% in Celina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#450 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Celina ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #71 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: O'Dell El (math 55% / reading 67%, grade B, #368 of 4,322 statewide, top 9%, 826 students, 15% FRL); Jerry & Linda Moore Middle (math 56% / reading 60%, grade B, #197 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 903 students, 20% FRL); Celina H S (math 44% / reading 72%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,074 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.6%/yr); 3878 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 50d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($309k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $276,925 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.49%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $362,445
• List price: $339,900
• Delta: -6.22%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2013 Aldrich Mews	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,867 (+1%)	0mo	$349,900	$187	97
2001 Aldrich Mews	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,865 (+1%)	1mo	$369,900	$198	96
2036 Aldrich Mews	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,888 (+2%)	1mo	$339,900	$180	96
2005 Aldrich Mews	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,852 (0%)	4mo	$335,900	$181	95
2016 Aldrich Mews	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,865 (+1%)	4mo	$369,990	$198	94
2009 Aldrich Mews	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,888 (+2%)	5mo	$354,990	$188	91
2025 Aldrich Mews	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,888 (+2%)	8mo	$340,000	$180	89
2000 Aldrich Mews	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,867 (+1%)	11mo	$389,000	$208	87
2021 Aldrich Mews	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,852 (0%)	15mo	$399,000	$215	86

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-90,706
• Equity at exit: $50,680

10-year hold

• IRR: -52.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.53×
• Total profit: $-145,199
• Equity at exit: $29,388

Cash invested: $95,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 13 active · 7 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.8 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $339,900 ($185/sqft)
• Median days on market: 72 d
• This list price: 15% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +5.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75009

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Rents YoY: -4.6%
• Active inventory: 3878
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,771 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,782
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$425 /mo · $5,098/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$275
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$582
• Net cashflow: $-435

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,321

Max offer price $276,925

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-200	-5% $-318	+0% $-435	+5% $-553	+10% $-670
Rent	-10% $-654	-5% $-545	+0% $-435	+5% $-326	+10% $-216
Rate	-1.0pp $-264	-0.5pp $-349	base $-435	+0.5pp $-523	+1.0pp $-613

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,975
• Closing costs: $10,197
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2009 Brookhurst St Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2386	$2,895	$1.21	114d	1	0.73mi
2612 Griffith Mews Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	2024	$3,050	$1.51	50d	1	0.73mi
2712 Biltmore Dr Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	1964	$2,500	$1.27	47d	1	0.75mi
1513 Mill Creek Way Celina, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–3.0	1385	$2,495	$1.80	0d	25	0.75mi
1637 Palo Duro Way Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2545	$5,800	$2.28	68d	1	0.81mi
2706 Boca Dr Prosper, TX	4.0	3.0	2102	$3,445	$1.64	139d	1	0.85mi
1149 Beautyberry Ln Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	1930	$2,395	$1.24	20d	1	0.93mi
1364 Hill Country Pl Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	1884	$2,695	$1.43	39d	1	0.94mi
1356 Hill Country Pl Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	1888	$2,500	$1.32	139d	1	0.95mi
1325 Choate Pkwy Celina, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$2,158	$2.16	0d	51	0.97mi
1328 Hill Country Pl Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	1885	$2,500	$1.33	74d	1	0.98mi
1363 Whipsaw Trl Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	1888	$2,550	$1.35	20d	1	0.98mi
2522 Runhappy Ct Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2395	$3,500	$1.46	139d	1	1.02mi
2432 Preakness Pl Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2309	$3,500	$1.52	139d	1	1.09mi
2632 Preakness Pl Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2359	$3,650	$1.55	3d	1	1.15mi
2720 Evergreen Trl Celina, TX	4.0	2.0	1868	$2,550	$1.37	18d	1	1.18mi
2600 Kinship Pkwy Celina, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1067	$2,051	$1.92	0d	31	1.20mi
3008 Evergreen Trl Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2503	$2,595	$1.04	78d	1	1.30mi
1101 Lawndale St Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	1762	$2,300	$1.31	45d	1	1.38mi
912 Slate Ln Celina, TX	4.0	2.0	1879	$2,690	$1.43	139d	1	1.39mi
905 Berry St Celina, TX	4.0	2.0	2023	$2,350	$1.16	37d	1	1.43mi
3125 Casa Blanca St Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	2331	$3,300	$1.42	83d	1	1.45mi
3138 Casa Blanca St Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2368	$3,000	$1.27	120d	1	1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community features include community sprinkler, greenbelt, jogging/bike paths, park, playground, and sidewalks
• Financial info: Treat as clear loan typeNo second mortgage
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA (Ten Mile Creek) with monthly fee of $275HOA covers maintenance of grounds and structuresHOA management company to be determined

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener2 covered parking spaces
• Utilities: City waterCity sewerIndividual gas meterIndividual water meterCommunity mailboxSidewalk
• Home design: Townhouse (attached)Two levelsNew construction (2026) — incompleteShingle roof
• Construction: Brick and rock/stone exteriorSlab foundationBuilt in 2026
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porchOutdoor living centerLightingWood fencingFew treesLandscaped yardSprinkler system

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveBuilt-in cabinetsKitchen islandWalk-in pantryEat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on level 2 with dual sinks, ensuite bath, linen closet, sitting area, and walk-in closetTwo additional bedrooms on level 2
• Flooring: CarpetLuxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsOne half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air
• Interior features: Decorative lightingDouble vanityEat-in kitchenKitchen islandPantryWalk-in closet(s)Wired for dataOne living areaOne dining areaRoom count of 6Electric fireplace

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $339,900 Active 110 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $339,900 Active 109 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $339,900 Active 108 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $339,900 Active 107 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $339,900 Active 106 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $339,900 Active 105 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $339,900 Active 104 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $339,900 Active 103 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $339,900 Active 102 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $339,900 Active 101 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $339,900 Active 100 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $339,900 Active 99 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $339,900 Active 98 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $339,900 Active 92 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $339,900 Active 91 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $339,900 Active 87 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $339,900 Active 86 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $339,900 Active 85 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $339,900 Active 84 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $339,900 Active 83 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $339,900 Active 82 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $339,900 Active 81 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $339,900 Active 80 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $339,900 Active 79 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $339,900 Active 78 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $339,900 Active 77 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $339,900 Active 76 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $339,900 Active 75 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $339,900 Active 74 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $339,900 Active 73 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $339,900 Active 72 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $339,900 Active 71 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $339,900 Active 70 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $339,900 Active 69 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $339,900 Active 68 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $339,900 Active 67 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $339,900 Active 66 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $339,900 Active 65 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $339,900 Active 64 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $339,900 Active 62 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $339,900 Active 61 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $339,900 Active 60 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $339,900 Active 59 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $339,900 Active 56 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $339,900 Active 55 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $339,900 Active 54 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $339,900 Active 53 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $339,900 Active 51 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $339,900 Active 49 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $339,900 Active 48 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,247
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,040
• − Property taxes: −$5,098
• − Insurance: −$1,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,660
• − Management: −$2,660
• − HOA: −$3,300
• − Depreciation: −$9,888
• Taxable loss: −$11,098
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,664
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,559/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready townhouse in the Ten Mile Creek community offers a modern, well-maintained interior with a spacious floor plan and contemporary design. The property is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed, making it an ideal investment for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and patio area — Enhances curb appeal and outdoor living space. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and marketability. ↑
• Both Install smart thermostat — Saves energy and attracts eco-conscious buyers/tenants. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 59/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary O'dell El B TX #368/4,322 Nat'l #6,943/41,679 Middle Jerry & Linda Moore Middle B TX #197/1,662 Nat'l #2,084/14,009 High Celina H S C TX #320/1,632 Nat'l #3,986/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Celina ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813290
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $83,282
• Composite: 50.49/100
• National rank: #1853
• State rank: #71 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Celina

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #450
• US rank: #9135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,210,074 people
• City population: 34,260
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,260
• Household income: $168,250
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 25% of renters

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Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 11% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.07%
• Current HPI: 276.6307
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.62%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community features include community sprinkler, greenbelt, jogging/bike paths, park, playground, and sidewalks
• Financial info: Treat as clear loan typeNo second mortgage
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA (Ten Mile Creek) with monthly fee of $275HOA covers maintenance of grounds and structuresHOA management company to be determined

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener2 covered parking spaces
• Utilities: City waterCity sewerIndividual gas meterIndividual water meterCommunity mailboxSidewalk
• Home design: Townhouse (attached)Two levelsNew construction (2026) — incompleteShingle roof
• Construction: Brick and rock/stone exteriorSlab foundationBuilt in 2026
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porchOutdoor living centerLightingWood fencingFew treesLandscaped yardSprinkler system

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveBuilt-in cabinetsKitchen islandWalk-in pantryEat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on level 2 with dual sinks, ensuite bath, linen closet, sitting area, and walk-in closetTwo additional bedrooms on level 2
• Flooring: CarpetLuxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsOne half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air
• Interior features: Decorative lightingDouble vanityEat-in kitchenKitchen islandPantryWalk-in closet(s)Wired for dataOne living areaOne dining areaRoom count of 6Electric fireplace

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $339,900 NTREIS