400 E Roberts Ln #127 · Oildale, CA 93308

$84,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,720 sqft · Manufactured public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1977 4,000 sqft lot Est $93k · 9% under $755/mo HOA · 42% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very nice senior park, gated, must be approved by park management. 24X65 has a add on, unit needs some work, kitchen faucet needs repairing.

Key facts

• Community hall
• Ceiling fans
• Bonus room

Tags

• POOL
• COMMUNITY HALL
• MAJOR UPGRADES
• LOW MAINTENANCE FRONT YARD
• BONUS ROOM
• CEILING FANS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Oildale neighborhood; Cross street: Manor Street; Directions available
• HOA & community: HOA: Mobile Town USA LLC; HOA fee of $755 per month

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Sewer service
• Home design: Leased space; Tenant occupied; Manufactured home zoning
• Construction: Composition roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Exterior material: Other (see remarks); Built on a 0.0918-acre lot
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Community pool; Gated community; Adult community

Interior

• Kitchen: Range/Oven; Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Range/Oven; Dishwasher; Microwave; Central A/C; Central Heat; No fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $84k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $165 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $84k).
• Recommended offer: $83k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 3.9% in Oildale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#680 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Standard Elementary (suburban): math 16% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #1,227 of 1,400 in CA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Standard Elementary (575 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 66% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 307 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $584 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($83k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $84k implies a 369% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 42% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,232 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.38%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $92,880
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
400 E Roberts Ln #39	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-11%)	19mo	$82,500	$54	66
4605 Q St	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (-11%)	6mo	$85,000	$55	43
616 45th St	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,876 (+9%)	19mo	$99,888	$53	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-4,125
• Equity at exit: $12,599

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $6,095
• Equity at exit: $7,306

Cash invested: $23,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93308

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 307
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,797 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$443
• Tax from tax record: −$21 /mo · $249/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$755
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $165

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,587

Max offer price $84,500

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $213	-5% $189	+0% $165	+5% $141	+10% $117
Rent	-10% $23	-5% $94	+0% $165	+5% $236	+10% $307
Rate	-1.0pp $208	-0.5pp $187	base $165	+0.5pp $143	+1.0pp $121

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,125
• Closing costs: $2,535
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
106 E Warren Ave Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1169	$1,400	$1.20	11d	1	0.39mi
223 McCord Ave Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,795	$1.17	3d	1	0.59mi
222 Harding Ave Unit B Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,750	$1.59	3d	1	0.62mi
448 S Oildale Dr Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,500	$1.39	3d	1	0.94mi
130 El Cerrito Dr Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1767	$2,750	$1.56	44d	1	0.99mi
2001 Bedford Way Bakersfield, CA	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,500	$1.67	4d	1	1.08mi
3700 Q St Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1088	$1,600	$1.47	4d	1	1.12mi
627 Hood Dr Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1140	$1,795	$1.57	3d	1	1.15mi
2309 Manor St Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1090	$1,725	$1.58	3d	1	1.27mi
2520 Loma Linda Dr Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,075	$1.73	11d	1	1.29mi
210 Douglas St Unit B Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	1274	$1,400	$1.10	3d	1	1.30mi
2413 Ashby St Unit 1 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1230	$1,750	$1.42	15d	1	1.34mi
411 Highland Dr Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	1051	$1,650	$1.57	3d	1	1.34mi
3200 El Encanto Ct #1 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	2116	$2,100	$0.99	3d	1	1.45mi
709 Francis St Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	44d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $755 · $9,060/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $84,500 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $84,500 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $84,500 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $84,500 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $84,500 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,500 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,500 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,500 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $89,500 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $89,500 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,500 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,500 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,500 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,500 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-20
    listed $89,500 Active
16. 2015-03-23
    price $18,000 140-char remark

    Show marketing remark (140 chars)

    Very nice senior park, gated, must be approved by park management. 24X65 has a add on, unit needs some work, kitchen faucet needs repairing.

17. 2015-03-20
    soldstatus $18,000 Sold 140-char remark

    Show marketing remark (140 chars)

    Very nice senior park, gated, must be approved by park management. 24X65 has a add on, unit needs some work, kitchen faucet needs repairing.

18. 2015-01-15
    price $25,000 140-char remark

    Show marketing remark (140 chars)

    Very nice senior park, gated, must be approved by park management. 24X65 has a add on, unit needs some work, kitchen faucet needs repairing.

19. 2014-12-11
    listed $25,000 Active 140-char remark

    Show marketing remark (140 chars)

    Very nice senior park, gated, must be approved by park management. 24X65 has a add on, unit needs some work, kitchen faucet needs repairing.

20. 2002-04-17
    soldstatus $30,000 132-char remark

    Show marketing remark (132 chars)

    Approx 1454 Sq Ft, With 2 Living Areas, 2 Full Baths. Lots Of Storage In Mobile Town Usa. Nice Carpeting And Window Coverings. Pr010

21. 2002-04-08
    historical 132-char remark

    Show marketing remark (132 chars)

    Approx 1454 Sq Ft, With 2 Living Areas, 2 Full Baths. Lots Of Storage In Mobile Town Usa. Nice Carpeting And Window Coverings. Pr010

22. 2002-04-08
    price $34,900 132-char remark

    Show marketing remark (132 chars)

    Approx 1454 Sq Ft, With 2 Living Areas, 2 Full Baths. Lots Of Storage In Mobile Town Usa. Nice Carpeting And Window Coverings. Pr010

23. 2002-02-13
    listed $30,000 132-char remark

    Show marketing remark (132 chars)

    Approx 1454 Sq Ft, With 2 Living Areas, 2 Full Baths. Lots Of Storage In Mobile Town Usa. Nice Carpeting And Window Coverings. Pr010

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $249 · $21/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $642 · $54/mo
• Expected delta: +$393/yr (+$33/mo · 157.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 39 unhealthy d/yr today · 45 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,560
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,733
• − Property taxes: −$249
• − Insurance: −$422
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,725
• − Management: −$1,725
• − HOA: −$9,060
• − Depreciation: −$2,458
• Taxable income: $1,188
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$285
• After-tax cash flow: $1,699/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Standard Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0637890
• Math proficiency: 16% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $40,574
• Composite: 21.42/100
• National rank: #13640
• State rank: #1227 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Oildale

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #680
• US rank: #20848

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oildale, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 55,078
• Household income: $62,445
• Rent vs Own: 51.3% rent · 48.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2931.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 15% Black 3% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.52%
• Current HPI: 825.65
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.22%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+198.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $89,500 GEMLS
• 2015-03-23 Price Changed $18,000 GEMLS
• 2015-03-20 Sold (MLS) $18,000 GEMLS
• 2015-01-15 Price Changed $25,000 GEMLS
• 2014-12-11 Listed $25,000 GEMLS
• 2002-04-17 Sold (MLS) $30,000 GEMLS
• 2002-04-08 Price Changed $34,900 GEMLS
• 2002-04-08 Delisted — GEMLS
• 2002-02-13 Listed $30,000 GEMLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $249 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.