20406 Little Bear Creek Rd #35 · Clearview, WA 98072

$160,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1978

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* * Please note PARK RULES ALLOW A MAXIMUM OF 2 OCCUPANTS * * in this specific home and no dogs. Welcome to Country Carriage Estates, an all ages community tucked into a quiet corner of Woodinville with an unbeatable commute location. This 3 bed, 1.75 bath, 960 sq ft manufactured home was updated in 2021 and lives comfortably with a functional layout and refreshed finishes throughout. This lot is one of the better ones in the park, with a brand new deck, a generous grassy yard, and a storage shed that give you outdoor space and storage most units here simply don't have. 2 parking spaces included. Located in the highly regarded Northshore School District and close to Woodinville's shops,

Key facts

• Brand new deck
• Generous grassy yard
• Storage shed

Tags

• UPDATED IN 2021
• BRAND NEW DECK
• GENEROUS GRASSY YARD
• STORAGE SHED
• NORTHSHORE SCHOOL DISTRICT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Buyer brokerage compensation: 3%
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash or Conventional
• HOA & community: Park approved for sale; Park amenities include common area; Country Carriage Estates park; 151 homes in the park; Pets: cats allowed; Land lease: $1,000

Exterior

• Parking: 2 open uncovered parking spaces
• Utilities: Electric power (Snohomish County PUD); Shared well water (park); Park/septic sewer; Electric water heater; Cable: Xfinity; Internet: Xfinity
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One story; Concord manufacturer; Mobile home remains; Has a view; Metal skirting; Entry level: single-level
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof; Tie down foundation; Manufactured after 6/15/1976
• Exterior features: Wood exterior; Wood products; Paved lot; Backyard storage shed (white wood)

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 three-quarter bath; 1 bathtub; 1 shower
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace heating; No cooling; Double pane windows (energy efficient)
• Interior features: Water heater; Vaulted ceilings; Awnings; Bath off primary
• Laundry & utility: Washer included; Water heater located in W/D area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#504 in WA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Northshore School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #9 of 291 in WA (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Ruby Bridges Elementary (465 students, 10% FRL); Leota Middle School (839 students, 16% FRL); North Creek High School (1,781 students, 16% FRL) — zoned schools at 14% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 196 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,982 units permitted in Snohomish County in 2024 (1,492 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Snohomish County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $135k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $155,200 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.75%
• DSCR: 2.50
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $46,005
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.48×
• Total profit: $111,213
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98072

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 196
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,829 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $829/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$594
• Net cashflow: $1,260

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,234

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,351	-5% $1,305	+0% $1,260	+5% $1,215	+10% $1,170
Rent	-10% $1,037	-5% $1,148	+0% $1,260	+5% $1,372	+10% $1,484
Rate	-1.0pp $1,341	-0.5pp $1,301	base $1,260	+0.5pp $1,219	+1.0pp $1,177

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $160,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $160,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-21
    listed $160,000 Active
17. 2021-06-10
    soldstatus $135,000 Closed
18. 2021-05-22
    status Pending
19. 2021-05-21
    historical Active Under Contract
20. 2021-05-16
    status Active
21. 2021-05-11
    status Pending
22. 2021-05-07
    listed $135,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $829 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,568 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$739/yr (+$62/mo · 89.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,949
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$829
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,716
• − Management: −$2,716
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $13,271
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,185
• After-tax cash flow: $11,937/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northshore School District
• NCES district ID: 5305910
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 78% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $92,951
• Composite: 67.41/100
• National rank: #826
• State rank: #9 of 291 in WA

Livability — Clearview

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #504
• US rank: #20832

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Clearview, WA
• County: King County · 2,251,916 people
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 24,446
• Household income: $175,805
• Rent vs Own: 27.8% rent · 72.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 588.0

Population outlook (Snohomish County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 899,800 people
• By 2030: 960,975 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 1,074,447 · +19.4%
• By 2050: 1,171,954 · +30.2%
• By 2075: 1,384,849 · +53.9%
• By 2100: 1,497,296 · +66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Asian 13% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 4% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Chinese 4% Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Snohomish

• 2024 margin: D (+19.0) · D 57.8% · R 38.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.1pp no change · 2008: 18.9pp · 2024: 19.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.0 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+16.6 2012: D+16.2 2008: D+18.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -887.82%
• Current HPI: 369.5283
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.00%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+18.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $160,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-10 Sold (MLS) $135,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-22 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-21 Contingent — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-16 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-11 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-07 Listed $135,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $829 · -2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.