918 SE Lantana Loop · Lake City, FL 32025

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,550 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 431 Days on market

Built 1960 0.35 ac lot Est $215k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

CUTE LITTLE BRICK HOME IN TOWN AND CLOSE TO THE VA HOSPITAL. HOME FEATURES 4 BEDROOMS AND 2 BATHS. LOCATED ON A CUL-DE-SAC WITH A LARGE BACK YARD.

Key facts

• Terrazzo floors
• 0.35 acre lot
• Built 1960

Tags

• TERRAZZO FLOORS
• FOREST HILLS SUBDIVISION
• CONVERTED TO A WORKSHOP

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Cable available
• Home design: Single-story; Residential property
• Construction: Metal roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Shed(s); Irregular-shaped lot (0.348 acres)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Central air

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5 ($-61/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (0.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#304 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F, employment F.
• Columbia (town): math 53% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #25 of 73 in FL (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Melrose Park Elementary School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,896 of 2,144 statewide, top 90%, 398 students, 84% FRL); Columbia High School (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #351 of 667 statewide, top 54%, 1,737 students, 50% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 54% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Columbia average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 178 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 431 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 11665% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $155k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 431 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.11%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $215,450
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
570 SE Sunflower Pl	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-10%)	8mo	$264,500	$189	67
654 SE Brown St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,554 (+0%)	12mo	$174,000	$112	65
1520 SE Valencia Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,590 (+3%)	4mo	$233,000	$147	63
294 SW Columbia Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,526 (-2%)	2mo	$225,000	$147	62
493 SE Church Ave	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-7%)	2mo	$187,500	$130	61
1326 SW Castle Heights Ter	0.54mi	3/3.0	1,569 (+1%)	18mo	$277,500	$177	53
1559 SE Valencia Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,422 (-8%)	10mo	$294,000	$207	48
552 SW Tularosa Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,493 (-4%)	17mo	$207,400	$139	46
302 SW Short Ln	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,360 (-12%)	3mo	$150,000	$110	44
219 SE Hernando Ave	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,364 (-12%)	8mo	$100,000	$73	38
660 SE Camp St	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,388 (-10%)	18mo	$191,000	$138	36
319 SE Avalon Ave	0.71mi	3/3.0	1,344 (-13%)	8mo	$174,400	$130	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $108,639
• Equity at exit: $180,176

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.72×
• Total profit: $320,251
• Equity at exit: $388,556

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32025

• Home prices YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,764 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$266 /mo · $3,196/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $-5

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,770

Max offer price $199,104

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $108	-5% $52	+0% $-5	+5% $-62	+10% $-118
Rent	-10% $-144	-5% $-75	+0% $-5	+5% $65	+10% $134
Rate	-1.0pp $96	-0.5pp $46	base $-5	+0.5pp $-57	+1.0pp $-110

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $200,000 Active 431 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $200,000 Active 429 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 428 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 427 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 426 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 425 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $200,000 Active 423 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $200,000 Active 422 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 419 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $200,000 Active 418 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 417 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $200,000 Active 414 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 413 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 412 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 411 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 410 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $200,000 Active 409 DOM
18. 2026-03-10
    historical $1,700
19. 2026-02-14
    listed $1,700
20. 2026-01-08
    status Active
21. 2025-10-18
    price $200,000
22. 2025-06-13
    price $219,500
23. 2025-04-09
    listed $220,000 Active
24. 2023-10-20
    historical $1,500
25. 2023-10-10
    listed $1,500
26. 2020-08-05
    soldstatus $155,000
27. 2019-03-21
    soldstatus $75,000
28. 2019-03-06
    soldstatus $75,000 146-char remark

    Show marketing remark (146 chars)

    CUTE LITTLE BRICK HOME IN TOWN AND CLOSE TO THE VA HOSPITAL. HOME FEATURES 4 BEDROOMS AND 2 BATHS. LOCATED ON A CUL-DE-SAC WITH A LARGE BACK YARD.

29. 2018-10-15
    soldstatus $52,500
30. 2000-01-31
    soldstatus $62,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,196 · $266/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,196 · $266/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,166
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,196
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,693
• − Management: −$1,693
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$3,438
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$825
• After-tax cash flow: $764/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia
• NCES district ID: 1200360
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $40,053
• Composite: 44.74/100
• National rank: #2750
• State rank: #25 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #304
• US rank: #5154

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake City, FL
• County: Columbia County · 40,507 people
• City population: 40,507
• Metro: Lake City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 22,948
• Household income: $55,004
• Rent vs Own: 40.1% rent · 59.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 754.0

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,129 people
• By 2030: 67,501 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 65,465 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 63,058 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 56,291 · -17.4%
• By 2100: 45,243 · -33.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.2) · D 24.6% · R 74.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.8pp · 2024: -50.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.2 2020: R+45.2 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+36.7 2008: R+33.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.57%
• Current HPI: 276.7253
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lake City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-97.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Rental Removed $1,700 NFMLS
• 2026-02-14 Listed for Rent $1,700 NFMLS
• 2026-01-08 Relisted — NFMLS
• 2025-10-18 Price Changed $200,000 NFMLS
• 2025-06-13 Price Changed $219,500 NFMLS
• 2025-04-09 Listed $220,000 NFMLS
• 2023-10-20 Rental Removed $1,500 NFMLS
• 2023-10-10 Listed for Rent $1,500 NFMLS
• 2020-08-05 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 2019-03-21 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2019-03-06 Sold (MLS) $75,000 NFMLS
• 2018-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $52,500 Public Records
• 2000-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $62,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+27.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,196 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.