1831 Longford Dr · Ferguson, MO 63136

$155,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,180 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1961 9,840 sqft lot $131/sqft · 29% above area Est $147k · 5% over ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• ARV discount +5.1/15.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Check out this nicely renovated 4-bedroom ranch home in north county. Enter into a spacious living room with original hardwood flooring, a fully updated kitchen with new stainless-steel appliances, and a unique 4-bedroom split floor plan with an extra bonus room. The home also includes a full basement and a large level backyard. The home is being sold as-is. The seller will do no inspections or repairs. The seller will provide a 1-year American Home Shield warranty on the major systems. The property is occupied. Showings by appointment only.

Key facts

• 9,840 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1961

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease considered: No

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport (1 space); Additional covered parking; Driveway and off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service (other); Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence; Private ownership; One-story house
• Construction: Brick veneer and frame construction
• Exterior features: Level lot; Chain link fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Full unfinished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $139 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $145k (6.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (6.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#586 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Riverview Gardens (suburban): math 2% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #324 of 324 in MO (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Koch Elem. (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #1,099 of 1,115 statewide, top 100%, 303 students, 99% FRL); Riverview Gardens Sr. High (math 2% / reading 18%, grade F, #501 of 521 statewide, top 97%, 1,331 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 376 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,962 (6.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.85%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $147,091
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: 5.38%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9701 Glen Owen Dr	0.13mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,120 (-5%)	3mo	$69,900	$62	78
9533 Winkler Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,104 (-6%)	4mo	$144,900	$131	69
9157 Victory Ave	0.52mi	4/2.5	1,127 (-4%)	5mo	$129,900	$115	60
9614 Winkler Dr	0.21mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,020 (-14%)	1mo	$125,000	$123	60
1523 Fir Dr	0.58mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,144 (-3%)	2mo	$45,000	$39	59
9305 Scottdale Ave	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,280 (+8%)	3mo	$60,000	$47	57
2035 Sun Valley Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,170 (-1%)	4mo	$68,900	$59	54
9724 Dennis Dr	0.44mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,056 (-10%)	2mo	$89,900	$85	54
9863 Eastdell Dr	0.69mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,126 (-5%)	1mo	$139,900	$124	52
9750 Lorna Ln	0.38mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,032 (-12%)	4mo	$104,900	$102	51
9808 Lorna Ln	0.44mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,032 (-12%)	5mo	$104,900	$102	48
9866 Dennis Dr	0.64mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,032 (-12%)	3mo	$124,900	$121	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.79% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $37,039
• Equity at exit: $76,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.68×
• Total profit: $116,182
• Equity at exit: $123,948

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63136

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,450 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$128 /mo · $1,541/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $139

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,273

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $227	-5% $183	+0% $139	+5% $96	+10% $52
Rent	-10% $25	-5% $82	+0% $139	+5% $197	+10% $254
Rate	-1.0pp $217	-0.5pp $179	base $139	+0.5pp $99	+1.0pp $58

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9709 Balboa Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	45d	1	0.14mi
9812 Balboa Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,495	$1.00	23d	1	0.24mi
9827 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	9d	1	0.29mi
9725 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,485	$1.63	45d	1	0.31mi
1733 Kappel Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,250	$1.37	25d	1	0.34mi
9750 Lorna Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1032	$1,100	$1.07	45d	1	0.37mi
2008 Kappel Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	858	$1,175	$1.37	25d	1	0.39mi
9839 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,095	$1.20	45d	1	0.45mi
1926 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.0	1095	$995	$0.91	16d	1	0.45mi
9840 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,095	$1.20	45d	1	0.46mi
9717 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,323	$1.25	45d	1	0.46mi
9868 Lorna Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1032	$1,175	$1.14	45d	1	0.56mi
9845 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,550	$1.61	14d	1	0.60mi
9845 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1251	$1,200	$0.96	0d	1	0.60mi
10078 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	900	$1,325	$1.47	9d	1	0.70mi
1654 Mowbry Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	936	$1,300	$1.39	25d	1	0.85mi
10129 Cavalier Ct Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	912	$1,250	$1.37	25d	1	0.87mi
2257 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,400	$1.17	25d	1	0.98mi
7 Lamar Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	894	$1,200	$1.34	19d	1	1.02mi
10239 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,395	$1.38	25d	1	1.03mi
10304 Bon Oak Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,250	$0.83	45d	1	1.09mi
2321 Noll Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	975	$1,320	$1.35	25d	1	1.11mi
9744 Lanier Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,345	$1.33	45d	1	1.11mi
104 Fenwick Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,250	$1.30	25d	1	1.13mi
2623 Avie Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	921	$1,350	$1.47	45d	1	1.19mi
945 Edgehill Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1110	$1,575	$1.42	45d	1	1.20mi
62 Capitol Hill Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,250	$1.01	45d	1	1.20mi
1547 Babcock Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,480	$1.46	45d	1	1.21mi
9723 Portage Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,450	$1.43	9d	1	1.24mi
2527 Switzer Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	888	$1,135	$1.28	18d	1	1.26mi
2546 Main St Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.0	984	$1,269	$1.29	45d	1	1.26mi
2415 Shirley Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	990	$1,450	$1.46	25d	1	1.30mi
296 Meadowcrest Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,550	$1.61	16d	1	1.31mi
2427 Switzer Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,300	$1.29	45d	1	1.31mi
10329 Chesley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,350	$1.33	25d	1	1.32mi
227 Meadowcrest Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,500	$1.56	45d	1	1.34mi
10113 Duke Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	770	$1,325	$1.72	45d	1	1.37mi
10322 Monarch Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1073	$1,728	$1.61	25d	1	1.38mi
249 S Hartnett Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,220	$1.27	25d	1	1.40mi
7441 Calvin Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1068	$1,350	$1.26	14d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $155,000 Pending 16 DOM
2. 2026-05-15
   listed $155,000 Active 547-char remark
3. 2026-05-11
   historical $155,000 547-char remark
4. 2025-08-22
   status Active
5. 2025-08-22
   price $155,000
6. 2025-06-28
   status Pending
7. 2025-05-27
   listed $159,900 Active
8. 2025-05-23
   historical
9. 2025-04-16
   historical
10. 2025-03-23
    listed $159,900 Active
11. 2025-03-20
    historical
12. 1961-12-04
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,541 · $128/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,541 · $128/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,395
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$1,541
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,392
• − Management: −$1,392
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$895
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$215
• After-tax cash flow: $1,888/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverview Gardens
• NCES district ID: 2926670
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 9% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $32,759
• Composite: 4.22/100
• National rank: #10058
• State rank: #324 of 324 in MO

Livability — Ferguson

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #586
• US rank: #20809

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 18,381
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 40,929
• Household income: $41,154
• Rent vs Own: 53.1% rent · 46.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3085.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.79%
• Current HPI: 420.28
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-3.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-30 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-15 Listed $155,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Coming Soon $155,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-22 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-22 Price Changed $155,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-28 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-27 Listed $159,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-23 Coming Soon — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-16 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-23 Listed $159,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-20 Coming Soon — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1961-12-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,541 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.