9850 S Grayling Rd · Beaver Creek, MI 48653

$79,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · SingleFamily · 41 Days on market

3.42 ac lot $118/sqft · 42% below area Est $137k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fixer-Upper Mobile with endless potential in a quiet private neighborhood on spacious acreage. Conveniently located near beautiful Higgins Lake with easy access to I-75 and US-27 for commuting and travel. Features a uniquely designed, large detached garage with upper level offering ample storage, workshop space or room for recreational toys. Peaceful country setting with the perfect blend of privacy and accessibility. Includes all items on premises. Cash only. .. .. ..

Key facts

• Workshop space
• Spacious acreage
• Easy access to us-27

Tags

• SPACIOUS ACREAGE
• EASY ACCESS TO I-75
• EASY ACCESS TO US-27
• AMPLE STORAGE
• WORKSHOP SPACE
• ROOM FOR RECREATIONAL TOYS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential acreage
• Construction: Crawl space basement
• Exterior features: Natural vegetation; Paved road access; Approximately 3.42-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Oven; Range
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Propane fuel
• Interior features: Refrigerator; Oven; Range
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $143 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $78k (1.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $77k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Crawford Ausable Schools (town): math 43% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #140 of 540 in MI (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Grayling Elementary School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #547 of 1,397 statewide, top 41%, 638 students, 66% FRL); Grayling Middle School (math 48% / reading 52%, grade C, #117 of 493 statewide, top 25%, 461 students, 57% FRL); Grayling High School (math 47% / reading 72%, grade C+, #80 of 713 statewide, top 12%, 452 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 166 active listings in the ZIP; 75 units permitted in Crawford County in 2024 (32 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $550 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Crawford County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $80k implies a 189% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,115 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.72%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $137,135
• List price: $79,500
• Delta: -42.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-3,790
• Equity at exit: $11,854

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $8,313
• Equity at exit: $6,874

Cash invested: $22,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48653

• Home prices YoY: -34.7%
• Active inventory: 166
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $783 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$417
• Tax from tax record: −$25 /mo · $300/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$164
• Net cashflow: $143

Break-even live

Break-even rent $601

Max offer price $79,500

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $188	-5% $166	+0% $143	+5% $121	+10% $98
Rent	-10% $81	-5% $112	+0% $143	+5% $174	+10% $205
Rate	-1.0pp $183	-0.5pp $164	base $143	+0.5pp $123	+1.0pp $102

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,875
• Closing costs: $2,385
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $79,500 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $79,500 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $79,500 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,500 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,500 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,500 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,500 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,500 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $79,500 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $79,500 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $79,500 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,500 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,500 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $79,500 Active 22 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,500 Active 21 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,500 Active 20 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,500 Active 19 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,500 Active 18 DOM
19. 2026-05-11
    listed $79,500 Active 473-char remark
20. 2014-04-05
    soldstatus $27,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $300 · $25/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $762 · $63/mo
• Expected delta: +$462/yr (+$39/mo · 154.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,392
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,453
• − Property taxes: −$300
• − Insurance: −$398
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$751
• − Management: −$751
• − Depreciation: −$2,313
• Taxable income: $426
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$102
• After-tax cash flow: $1,617/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crawford Ausable Schools
• NCES district ID: 2611030
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $40,396
• Composite: 38.94/100
• National rank: #4086
• State rank: #140 of 540 in MI

Livability — Beaver Creek

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,638

Population outlook (Crawford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,042 people
• By 2030: 12,520 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 11,292 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 10,157 · -22.1%
• By 2075: 8,338 · -36.1%
• By 2100: 6,765 · -48.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 7% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, Vietnam

Political lean MEDSL · Crawford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.8) · D 32.5% · R 66.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.1pp toward R · 2008: -1.7pp · 2024: -33.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.8 2020: R+30.7 2016: R+32.8 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.03%
• Current HPI: 222.4014
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+189.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $79,500 WWMLS
• 2014-04-05 Sold (Public Records) $27,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $300 · -45.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.