3973 Kokanee Ln N · Lake Elmo, MN 55042

$600,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,692 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 2024 7,797 sqft lot $223/sqft · 28% below area Est $839k · 28% under $177/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SELF-TOUR TODAY! Welcome to the new "Elliot" - Walk Out Rambler! This delightful farmhouse style association maintained NEW home is a 3BR/3BA/2CAR - This open floor plan is designed with flair and functionality. The stunning great room includes a stone fireplace, and an abundance of natural sunlight. Two bedrooms on the main level and one bedroom in the finished walk out lower level. The community includes lawn care, snow removal, a clubhouse, a POOL, basketball court and playground. This home is ready for you-come and self-tour today!

Key facts

• 7,797 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA managed by Omega Property Management; Monthly HOA fee of $177 covering lawn care, professional management, recreation facility access, shared amenities and snow removal; Shared clubhouse

Exterior

• Parking: Attached insulated 2-car garage with garage door opener and asphalt driveway
• Security: No specific security features listed
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; 200+ amp electrical service with circuit breakers; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential property; One level (main living on one level); Walkout basement
• Construction: Asphalt roof (age 8 years or less); Foundation area 1,437; Finished below-grade living area
• Exterior features: Composite decking and deck (16 x 20); Stone accents; Below-ground shared pool; Light tree coverage; Publicly maintained city street with sidewalks, street lights and storm sewer

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with center island; Cooktop; Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Water filtration system
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (primary on main level)
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms and one three-quarter bathroom; Main floor full bath; Primary suite with double sinks, private ensuite, separate tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Natural woodwork and paneled doors; Finished daylight/walkout basement with egress windows; Drain-tiled basement and sump pump; Smart home technology; In-ground sprinkler system; All living facilities on one level; main floor primary bedroom and main floor laundry; Primary bedroom suite with double sink and private ensuite; separate tub and shower
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room with washer and dryer hookups; Washer and dryer included; Electric dryer hookup; Water softener (rented); Gas water heater; Humidifier

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $600k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-764 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $465k (22.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $388k (35.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $388k (35.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.6% in Lake Elmo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#271 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Stillwater Area Public School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #54 of 301 in MN (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lake Elmo Elementary (math 54% / reading 48%, grade C-, #406 of 857 statewide, top 48%, 653 students, 28% FRL); Oak-Land Middle School (math 50% / reading 52%, grade C, #69 of 258 statewide, top 27%, 933 students, 28% FRL); Stillwater Area High School (math 57% / reading 66%, grade B-, #39 of 471 statewide, top 9%, 2,647 students, 20% FRL).
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,405 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($591k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $388,119 (35.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.46%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $838,665
• List price: $600,000
• Delta: -27.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11592 Sunflower Ln N	0.55mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,850 (+6%)	19mo	$825,980	$290	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-146,042
• Equity at exit: $89,462

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-190,405
• Equity at exit: $51,877

Cash invested: $168,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55042

• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,881 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,146
• Tax from tax record: −$257 /mo · $3,084/yr
• Insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$177
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$815
• Net cashflow: $-764

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,849

Max offer price $464,979

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-425	-5% $-595	+0% $-764	+5% $-934	+10% $-1,104
Rent	-10% $-1,071	-5% $-918	+0% $-764	+5% $-611	+10% $-458
Rate	-1.0pp $-462	-0.5pp $-612	base $-764	+0.5pp $-920	+1.0pp $-1,078

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $150,000
• Closing costs: $18,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10974 37th St N Lake Elmo, MN	4.0	3.0	2299	$4,000	$1.74	45d	1	0.28mi
11300 Upper 39th Street Cir N Lake Elmo, MN	2.0	2.5	2220	$3,645	$1.64	0d	12	0.30mi
3472 Knightsbridge Trl N Lake Elmo, MN	4.0	2.5	2022	$4,000	$1.98	45d	1	0.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $177 · $2,124/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingsnow removalpool

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $600,000 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $600,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $600,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $600,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $600,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $600,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $600,000 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $600,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $600,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $600,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $600,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $600,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $600,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $600,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $600,000 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    price $610,000 1520-char remark
17. 2026-05-01
    price $620,000 1520-char remark
18. 2026-04-22
    price $630,000 1520-char remark
19. 2026-04-15
    listed $650,000 Active 1520-char remark
20. 2025-01-24
    soldstatus $600,000 Sold 551-char remark

    Show marketing remark (551 chars)

    SELF-TOUR TODAY! Welcome to the new "Elliot" - Walk Out Rambler! This delightful farmhouse style association maintained NEW home is a 3BR/3BA/2CAR - This open floor plan is designed with flair and functionality. The stunning great room includes a stone fireplace, and an abundance of natural sunlight. Two bedrooms on the main level and one bedroom in the finished walk out lower level. The community includes lawn care, snow removal, a clubhouse, a POOL, basketball court and playground. This home is ready for you-come and self-tour today!

21. 2024-12-22
    status Pending 551-char remark

    Show marketing remark (551 chars)

    SELF-TOUR TODAY! Welcome to the new "Elliot" - Walk Out Rambler! This delightful farmhouse style association maintained NEW home is a 3BR/3BA/2CAR - This open floor plan is designed with flair and functionality. The stunning great room includes a stone fireplace, and an abundance of natural sunlight. Two bedrooms on the main level and one bedroom in the finished walk out lower level. The community includes lawn care, snow removal, a clubhouse, a POOL, basketball court and playground. This home is ready for you-come and self-tour today!

22. 2024-11-16
    listed $619,900 Active 551-char remark

    Show marketing remark (551 chars)

    SELF-TOUR TODAY! Welcome to the new "Elliot" - Walk Out Rambler! This delightful farmhouse style association maintained NEW home is a 3BR/3BA/2CAR - This open floor plan is designed with flair and functionality. The stunning great room includes a stone fireplace, and an abundance of natural sunlight. Two bedrooms on the main level and one bedroom in the finished walk out lower level. The community includes lawn care, snow removal, a clubhouse, a POOL, basketball court and playground. This home is ready for you-come and self-tour today!

23. 2024-11-15
    historical
24. 2024-09-17
    price $619,900
25. 2024-07-25
    price $629,900
26. 2024-01-29
    listed $619,900 Active
27. 2022-12-22
    soldstatus $119,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,084 · $257/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,902 · $408/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,818/yr (+$152/mo · 58.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,574
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,609
• − Property taxes: −$3,084
• − Insurance: −$3,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,726
• − Management: −$3,726
• − HOA: −$2,124
• − Depreciation: −$17,455
• Taxable loss: −$20,149
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,836
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,336/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stillwater Area Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2738190
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $84,438
• Composite: 49.8/100
• National rank: #1954
• State rank: #54 of 301 in MN

Livability — Lake Elmo

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #271
• US rank: #5860

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Elmo, MN
• City population: 13,156
• Population (ZIP): 13,156

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 278,554 people
• By 2030: 290,465 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 310,014 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 324,118 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 362,697 · +30.2%
• By 2100: 381,491 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 7% Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 53.5% · R 44.6% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+9.2 2016: D+1.9 2012: D+0.8 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.91%
• Current HPI: 224.0264
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+404.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-26 Listed $600,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $610,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $620,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $630,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Listed $650,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-24 Sold (MLS) $600,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-22 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-16 Listed $619,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-15 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-17 Price Changed $619,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-25 Price Changed $629,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-29 Listed $619,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $119,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+110.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,084 · +69.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.