199 17th St · West Babylon, NY 11704

$499,999

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,230 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1949 Est $681k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Calling all investors and or end user. West Babylon School district. Just add your finishing touches. Sold As-is.

Key facts

• Built 1949
• Listed 40 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $500k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-516 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $409k (18.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $385k (22.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $385k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.9% in West Babylon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#368 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety D-.
• West Babylon Union Free School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #148 of 590 in NY (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: West Babylon Junior High School (math 38% / reading 48%, grade D-, #370 of 729 statewide, top 51%, 804 students, 36% FRL); West Babylon Senior High School (math 92% / reading 94%, grade A+, #147 of 1,100 statewide, top 14%, 1,247 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($485k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $114k; list at $500k implies a 339% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $385,322 (22.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.42%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $681,420
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1321 7th St	0.52mi	4/2.0	1,200 (-2%)	5mo	$670,000	$558	65
56 15th St	0.26mi	4/1.0	1,344 (+9%)	9mo	$630,000	$469	63
1483 12th St	0.33mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,325 (+8%)	9mo	$720,000	$543	58
1568 7th St	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,306 (+6%)	4mo	$630,000	$482	51
79 Centerwood St	0.72mi	4/2.0	1,134 (-8%)	1mo	$632,000	$557	50
1550 11th St	0.44mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,116 (-9%)	9mo	$560,000	$502	49
1175 Little East Neck Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-14%)	1mo	$620,000	$587	49
1233 6th St	0.58mi	4/3.0	1,327 (+8%)	7mo	$735,000	$554	48
1457 9th St	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,082 (-12%)	10mo	$630,000	$582	44
21 Silver St	0.62mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,400 (+14%)	5mo	$580,000	$414	35
1550 6 St	0.63mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,070 (-13%)	10mo	$650,000	$607	32
70 11th Ave	0.73mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,400 (+14%)	9mo	$667,000	$476	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-113,750
• Equity at exit: $74,551

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-140,856
• Equity at exit: $43,231

Cash invested: $140,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11704

• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,853 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax from tax record: −$729 /mo · $8,753/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$809
• Net cashflow: $-516

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,506

Max offer price $408,882

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-233	-5% $-374	+0% $-516	+5% $-657	+10% $-799
Rent	-10% $-820	-5% $-668	+0% $-516	+5% $-364	+10% $-211
Rate	-1.0pp $-264	-0.5pp $-389	base $-516	+0.5pp $-645	+1.0pp $-777

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $125,000
• Closing costs: $15,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1461 10th St West Babylon, NY	4.0	2.0	1314	$4,200	$3.20	45d	1	0.41mi
1115 4th St Unit UP West Babylon, NY	3.0	1.0	1300	$3,350	$2.58	0d	1	0.74mi
1599 3rd St West Babylon, NY	3.0	1.0	1103	$4,000	$3.63	0d	1	0.86mi
456 15th St West Babylon, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,995	$3.00	3d	1	0.95mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $499,999 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $499,999 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $499,999 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $499,999 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $499,999 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $499,999 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $499,999 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $499,999 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $499,999 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $499,999 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $499,999 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $499,999 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $499,999 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $499,999 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $499,999 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    listed $499,999 Active 113-char remark
17. 1988-01-21
    soldstatus $114,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,753 · $729/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,753 · $729/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,239
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,008
• − Property taxes: −$8,753
• − Insurance: −$2,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,699
• − Management: −$3,699
• − Depreciation: −$14,545
• Taxable loss: −$14,966
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,592
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,598/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Babylon Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3630540
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $81,114
• Composite: 59.43/100
• National rank: #924
• State rank: #148 of 590 in NY

Livability — West Babylon

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #368
• US rank: #6355

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Babylon, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 40,706
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 40,706
• Household income: $129,195
• Rent vs Own: 25.6% rent · 74.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 922.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 21% Black 12% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 2% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -711.75%
• Current HPI: 310.4921
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+338.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $499,999 FSBO.com
• 1988-01-21 Sold (Public Records) $114,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,753 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.