2686 SW Monarch Trl · Palm City, FL 34997

$189,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 270 Days on market

Built 1981 6,621 sqft lot $164/sqft · 19% above area Est $158k · 19% over $164/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a lovely two bedroom, two bath home with a laundry room/office. Pride of ownership shows inside and out. Home has been recently remodeled to include new crown and floor molding, new ceiling fans and light fixture, plus painted throughout. New LVP flooring in all rooms except bedrooms. Updated step-saver kitchen. You own the land, very low HOA fees. There are 2 heated pools, 2 clubhouses. Amenities include tennis court, pickleball, shuffleboard, bocci ball. RV/Boat Storage available for small monthly fee.

Key facts

• Florida room
• Step-saver kitchen
• Lush landscaping

Tags

• FLORIDA ROOM
• BUILT-IN CHINA CABINETS
• STEP-SAVER KITCHEN
• LUSH LANDSCAPING
• OPEN BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $227 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
• Recommended offer: $166k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 2.6% in Palm City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#140 in FL, #2,113 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Martin (suburban): math 52% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #24 of 73 in FL (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 588 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 737 units permitted in Martin County in 2024 (167 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Martin County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 270 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $189k implies a 253% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 270 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.15%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $158,454
• List price: $189,000
• Delta: 19.28%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2745 SW Toronado Trl	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,142 (-1%)	2mo	$131,000	$115	92
9353 SW Fleetwood Dr	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,152 (0%)	10mo	$115,000	$100	85
2554 SW Olds Pl	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,126 (-2%)	11mo	$160,000	$142	75
2676 SW Thunderbird Trl	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+8%)	8mo	$267,500	$214	74
2661 SW Toronado Trl	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,237 (+7%)	11mo	$192,500	$156	74
2788 SW Thunderbird Trl	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,232 (+7%)	10mo	$90,000	$73	74
2847 SW Thunderbird Trl	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+8%)	5mo	$107,000	$86	73
2596 SW Olds Pl	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,090 (-5%)	12mo	$204,000	$187	70
2566 SW Pontiac Pl	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,252 (+9%)	14mo	$151,500	$121	65
2585 SW Marquis Ter	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,294 (+12%)	1mo	$213,500	$165	64
2542 SW Marquis Ter	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,221 (+6%)	16mo	$233,000	$191	63
2401 SW Olds Pl	0.34mi	2/2.0	1,273 (+10%)	15mo	$215,000	$169	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-16,686
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,937
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34997

• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 588
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,961 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,059/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$164
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $227

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,674

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $164 · $1,968/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 270 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 269 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 268 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 267 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $189,000 Active 265 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 264 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,000 Active 262 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Active 261 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,000 Active 260 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,000 Active 259 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,000 Active 255 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,000 Active 254 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,000 Active 253 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 252 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 251 DOM
16. 2026-02-22
    price $189,000 517-char remark

    Show marketing remark (517 chars)

    This is a lovely two bedroom, two bath home with a laundry room/office. Pride of ownership shows inside and out. Home has been recently remodeled to include new crown and floor molding, new ceiling fans and light fixture, plus painted throughout. New LVP flooring in all rooms except bedrooms. Updated step-saver kitchen. You own the land, very low HOA fees. There are 2 heated pools, 2 clubhouses. Amenities include tennis court, pickleball, shuffleboard, bocci ball. RV/Boat Storage available for small monthly fee.

17. 2025-10-07
    price $199,500 517-char remark

    Show marketing remark (517 chars)

    This is a lovely two bedroom, two bath home with a laundry room/office. Pride of ownership shows inside and out. Home has been recently remodeled to include new crown and floor molding, new ceiling fans and light fixture, plus painted throughout. New LVP flooring in all rooms except bedrooms. Updated step-saver kitchen. You own the land, very low HOA fees. There are 2 heated pools, 2 clubhouses. Amenities include tennis court, pickleball, shuffleboard, bocci ball. RV/Boat Storage available for small monthly fee.

18. 2025-09-20
    listed $205,000 Active 517-char remark

    Show marketing remark (517 chars)

    This is a lovely two bedroom, two bath home with a laundry room/office. Pride of ownership shows inside and out. Home has been recently remodeled to include new crown and floor molding, new ceiling fans and light fixture, plus painted throughout. New LVP flooring in all rooms except bedrooms. Updated step-saver kitchen. You own the land, very low HOA fees. There are 2 heated pools, 2 clubhouses. Amenities include tennis court, pickleball, shuffleboard, bocci ball. RV/Boat Storage available for small monthly fee.

19. 2025-08-14
    historical
20. 2025-05-13
    status Active
21. 2025-05-10
    historical
22. 2024-10-29
    listed $215,000 Active
23. 2016-01-11
    price $53,500
24. 2016-01-11
    price $49,000
25. 2014-01-21
    price $62,500
26. 2014-01-21
    soldstatus $53,500
27. 2013-03-14
    listed $62,500
28. 2010-04-30
    soldstatus $49,000
29. 2010-04-28
    soldstatus $49,000
30. 2010-04-28
    price $54,800
31. 2009-01-15
    listed $54,800
32. 2002-03-05
    soldstatus $50,000
33. 1983-06-01
    soldstatus $15,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,059 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,569 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$509/yr (+$42/mo · 48.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,535
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$1,059
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,883
• − Management: −$1,883
• − HOA: −$1,968
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$288
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$69
• After-tax cash flow: $2,796/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Martin
• NCES district ID: 1201290
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,482
• Composite: 45.1/100
• National rank: #2690
• State rank: #24 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm City

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #140
• US rank: #2113

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Martin County · 165,223 people
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 47,075
• Household income: $78,136
• Rent vs Own: 19.1% rent · 80.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1323.0

Population outlook (Martin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 172,383 people
• By 2030: 180,192 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 194,114 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 204,992 · +18.9%
• By 2075: 229,641 · +33.2%
• By 2100: 232,146 · +34.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 9% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Martin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.1% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.5pp toward R · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+26.9 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -319.78%
• Current HPI: 336.7717
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.71%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1088.7% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-22 Price Changed $189,000 MCRTC
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $199,500 MCRTC
• 2025-09-20 Listed $205,000 MCRTC
• 2025-08-14 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2025-05-13 Relisted — Beaches MLS
• 2025-05-10 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2024-10-29 Listed $215,000 Beaches MLS
• 2016-01-11 Price Changed $49,000 MCRTC
• 2016-01-11 Price Changed $53,500 MCRTC
• 2014-01-21 Sold (Public Records) $53,500 Public Records
• 2014-01-21 Price Changed $62,500 MCRTC
• 2013-03-14 Listed $62,500 MCRTC
• 2010-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $49,000 Public Records
• 2010-04-28 Price Changed $54,800 MCRTC
• 2010-04-28 Sold (MLS) $49,000 MCRTC
• 2009-01-15 Listed $54,800 MCRTC
• 2002-03-05 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 1983-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $15,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,059 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.