21601 Canyon #4 · Wildomar, CA 92595

$79,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,165 sqft · Manufactured · 63 Days on market

Built 1976 Good condition $68/sqft · 84% below area ↓ 33% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this easy senior-living community. Primary resident must be 55+; secondary resident 45+. Well-maintained neighborhood with recessed lighting in the living room. Master suite includes an additional retreat (approx. 17' x 10'). Built in range. Laminate flooring in living room, dining area and kitchen. Small deck off restreet. Enclosed sun room. Storage shed is set up as a workshop. Community amenities include a sparkling pool and clubhouse with a fitness area. Convenient to shopping and I-15 with easy access to San Diego and Los Angeles.

Key facts

• Built in range
• Laminate flooring
• Master suite retreat

Tags

• RECESSED LIGHTING
• MASTER SUITE RETREAT
• BUILT IN RANGE
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• ENCLOSED SUN ROOM
• STORAGE SHED WORKSHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $79k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $79k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 28.8% vs local median 3.3% in Wildomar — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#951 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Lake Elsinore Unified (suburban): math 34% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #210 of 517 in CA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 145 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,260 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 80.42%
• DSCR: 4.58
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $482,500
• List price: $79,000
• Delta: -83.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21601-# 2 Canyon Dr	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-1%)	3mo	$120,000	$104	96
21601 Canyon Dr #9	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,196 (+3%)	16mo	$155,000	$130	82
21601 Canyon Dr #42	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (-9%)	4mo	$82,000	$78	76
32290 Bilton Way	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-1%)	0mo	$490,000	$425	70
34321 Orange St	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,161 (-0%)	24mo	$780,000	$672	56
21527 Waite St	0.61mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+3%)	22mo	$215,000	$179	49
21836 Waite St	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+7%)	22mo	$319,000	$256	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 77.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.35×
• Total profit: $74,131
• Equity at exit: $11,779

10-year hold

• IRR: 80.0%
• Equity multiple: 8.11×
• Total profit: $157,209
• Equity at exit: $6,830

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92595

• Home prices YoY: -23.8%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,568 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$99 /mo · $1,185/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $1,482

Break-even live

Break-even rent $691

Max offer price $79,000

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,537	-5% $1,510	+0% $1,482	+5% $1,455	+10% $1,428
Rent	-10% $1,280	-5% $1,381	+0% $1,482	+5% $1,584	+10% $1,685
Rate	-1.0pp $1,522	-0.5pp $1,503	base $1,482	+0.5pp $1,462	+1.0pp $1,441

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21825 Canyon Dr Wildomar, CA	3.0	2.0	1477	$2,500	$1.69	17d	1	0.28mi
20100 Palomar St Wildomar, CA	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,500	$1.92	25d	1	0.93mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,000 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,000 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,000 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,000 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $79,000 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $79,000 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,000 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,000 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,000 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,000 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-09
    price $79,000 552-char remark

    Show marketing remark (552 chars)

    Welcome to this easy senior-living community. Primary resident must be 55+; secondary resident 45+. Well-maintained neighborhood with recessed lighting in the living room. Master suite includes an additional retreat (approx. 17' x 10'). Built in range. Laminate flooring in living room, dining area and kitchen. Small deck off restreet. Enclosed sun room. Storage shed is set up as a workshop. Community amenities include a sparkling pool and clubhouse with a fitness area. Convenient to shopping and I-15 with easy access to San Diego and Los Angeles.

16. 2026-04-16
    listed $88,000 Active 552-char remark

    Show marketing remark (552 chars)

    Welcome to this easy senior-living community. Primary resident must be 55+; secondary resident 45+. Well-maintained neighborhood with recessed lighting in the living room. Master suite includes an additional retreat (approx. 17' x 10'). Built in range. Laminate flooring in living room, dining area and kitchen. Small deck off restreet. Enclosed sun room. Storage shed is set up as a workshop. Community amenities include a sparkling pool and clubhouse with a fitness area. Convenient to shopping and I-15 with easy access to San Diego and Los Angeles.

17. 2026-04-10
    historical
18. 2026-02-27
    price $88,000
19. 2026-01-22
    price $98,000
20. 2025-11-13
    price $108,000
21. 2025-10-21
    listed $118,000 Active
22. 2025-10-10
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,811
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$1,185
• − Insurance: −$395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,465
• − Management: −$2,465
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable income: $17,578
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,219
• After-tax cash flow: $13,571/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with a cosmetic rehab level, featuring a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. Upgrades in painting, landscaping, and smart home features can significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more attractive and energy-efficient.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more attractive and energy-efficient. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Elsinore Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600027
• Math proficiency: 34% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $63,829
• Composite: 37.01/100
• National rank: #4518
• State rank: #210 of 517 in CA

Livability — Wildomar

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #951
• US rank: #24427

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wildomar, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 34,438
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 34,438
• Household income: $106,047
• Rent vs Own: 21.0% rent · 79.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 429.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 18% Asian 5% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 25% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -110.47%
• Current HPI: 354.397
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.12%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-33.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $79,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $88,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $88,000 CRMLS
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $98,000 CRMLS
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $108,000 CRMLS
• 2025-10-21 Listed $118,000 CRMLS
• 2025-10-10 Coming Soon — CRMLS